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North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

you would of done in 1996 Chris although only one or two, Crosby for istance had 27cm of level snow, a similar situation just now with cold block in place and atlantic trying to push in and failing, very rare. Fed up myself as it looked the same until the over nighters came in, could change, who knows, things do.

27 cm! OMG. But I've asked people and nobody can remember it. I do remember building a snowman when I was very little, the only snowman I ever built!

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Posted
  • Location: Whiston, Nr St. Helens, Merseyside 152ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Long hot summers and bitterly cold winters with lots of snow
  • Location: Whiston, Nr St. Helens, Merseyside 152ft ASL

Whats the chances for my area? I will be gutted if things go pear shaped :(

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Posted
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snowy. Summer: Warm/gentle breeze. Anytime: thunderstorms/gales.
  • Location: Lytham St Annes, near Blackpool.

http://expert-images...011818_1706.gif

TEITS just posted this in model thread...latest NAE...not really sure if its an upgrade or not...but there it is

...and this is from the net/w home page issued at 8am this morning:

Across east Wales, The West Midlands and NW England – we could see 10-15cm widely, with perhaps up to 25cm over higher ground. So we are expecting hazardous conditions and travel disruption tomorrow – particularly towards the west.

I don't know what it's based on - there it is...

FWIW My phone accuweather app has a massive snow downgrade from yesterday's predications, so keeping in line with what we've seen.

Edited by snowdrifter
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

...and this is from the net/w home page issued at 8am this morning:

Across east Wales, The West Midlands and NW England – we could see 10-15cm widely, with perhaps up to 25cm over higher ground. So we are expecting hazardous conditions and travel disruption tomorrow – particularly towards the west.

I don't know what it's based on - there it is...

Pine cones and seaweed!
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Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire

Part of the problem is that snow is such a rare beast for most in this region. When it is forecast even 5+ days out all historical precedents get thrown out of the window and its taken as red its going to happen. The events of 2009 & 2010 are perhaps partly responsible and may have presented a view that perpahs snow isn't as rare as some on here keep saying it is.

As we have seen with this "event" we were all in the mix come Monday, but steadily throughout the week this has changed, some have seen this, others have had the blinkers on. Its no ones fault, no one is to blame, no one is being negative, it has happened before - you learn from it and move on - it is 100% that it will happen again.

It is a forum, people have differing views, it would be a boring place if everyone said from the off "it won't happen" Living where we do if you see snow in the forecast it does create a buzz in here. I think for the overall lack of snow the region receives the majority of us remain remarkably good humoured and we all seem to remain sane in here - compared to some in here i'm an old fart, my wife sometimes fears for my sanity.

Anyway this one is being filed in the same bin as that non event in 2004 that weather history mentioned. Lots of dry and cold days to come ..... now where did I leave that receipt for my sledges rolleyes.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maghull, Merseyside 29m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, storms
  • Location: Maghull, Merseyside 29m ASL

27 cm! OMG. But I've asked people and nobody can remember it. I do remember building a snowman when I was very little, the only snowman I ever built!

I remember it Chris - I was teaching at Chesterfield HIgh School at the time, back in the days when they had the old annexe just off Kingsway. We were shut that day because of drifts. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

liverpool south and cheshire should do okay out of this, its to the north and the east where the problems are but then short term change can occur like it did last night

Well I'm only 6 miles to the north of Liverpool, so I should do ok; do you think?

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

...and this is from the net/w home page issued at 8am this morning:

Across east Wales, The West Midlands and NW England – we could see 10-15cm widely, with perhaps up to 25cm over higher ground. So we are expecting hazardous conditions and travel disruption tomorrow – particularly towards the west.

I don't know what it's based on - there it is...

i would guess even though that was issued at 8...it must be going off old data............

.I think whats very telling is the bbc forecasts while still sticking to yesterdays forecasts are much more low key...as if they have been told by meto....were not issung new advice yet ...but just calm down a little ..things have changed..........

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield

Just looked at the front page of Net weather and they are still saying it will head east and that the North west as well as midlands will do ok with snow so im even more confused and that was put up at 8am this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1350;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

Part of the problem is that snow is such a rare beast for most in this region. When it is forecast even 5+ days out all historical precedents get thrown out of the window and its taken as red its going to happen. The events of 2009 & 2010 are perhaps partly responsible and may have presented a view that perpahs snow isn't as rare as some on here keep saying it is.

As we have seen with this "event" we were all in the mix come Monday, but steadily throughout the week this has changed, some have seen this, others have had the blinkers on. Its no ones fault, no one is to blame, no one is being negative, it has happened before - you learn from it and move on - it is 100% that it will happen again.

It is a forum, people have differing views, it would be a boring place if everyone said from the off "it won't happen" Living where we do if you see snow in the forecast it does create a buzz in here. I think for the overall lack of snow the region receives the majority of us remain remarkably good humoured and we all seem to remain sane in here - compared to some in here i'm an old fart, my wife sometimes fears for my sanity.

Anyway this one is being filed in the same bin as that non event in 2004 that weather history mentioned. Lots of dry and cold days to come ..... now where did I leave that receipt for my sledges rolleyes.gif

good post two particularly good points

1) people ignore historical precedents

2)it would be boring if everyone was as negative/realistic as mee

Edited by chris78
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I remember it Chris - I was teaching at Chesterfield HIgh School at the time, back in the days when they had the old annexe just off Kingsway. We were shut that day because of drifts. smile.png

Thanks, yes that's only a few hundred yards from me. I wonder why nobody else remembers it then? Then again, nobody else around here likes snow apart from me so they've probably deliberately forgotten about it!

Edited by Chris R
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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

Daybreaks itv forecast this morning said that there will be blizzards so they no things we dont

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

BBC 5 live forecast just updated ...emphasis changed...less in north west..more a wales..NI SW event....they have caught up....another lesson when there is new model output ignore the BBC they take a good while to put that new data into their forecasts

Daybreaks itv forecast this morning said that there will be blizzards so they no things we dont

no we know things they dont!

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Posted
  • Location: Wallasey, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Storms and snow
  • Location: Wallasey, Wirral

Thanks Hot Cuppa. I think we will see some but not as much as what was expected.

I thought though that it was very difficult to predict where snow would fall even up until hours before?

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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

according to the will it snow for my area, it shows 70% today, 95% tomorrow and saturday and 80% monday.

I wonder at what time the forecast was made for today, did it have the hindsight of the 00z, or did they see

and think there was something wrong with the data? seems a little strange to issue that type of forecast

because generally the forecast is reasonably solid.

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Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk

Getting quite breezy here now, temp 2 degrees, rather cloudy.........

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

according to the will it snow for my area, it shows 70% today, 95% tomorrow and saturday and 80% monday.

I wonder at what time the forecast was made for today, did it have the hindsight of the 00z, or did they see

and think there was something wrong with the data? seems a little strange to issue that type of forecast

because generally the forecast is reasonably solid.

id say again they are just slow to catch up im afraid.....the bbc forecasts have changed...the meto warnings will too

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Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk

Upgrade for most 6z GFS. Things, to me anyway, seem to be beefing up again this morning after a wobble

Beefing up for where though, cheshire?

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Upgrade for most 6z GFS. Things, to me anyway, seem to be beefing up again this morning after a wobble

I don't quite share your optimism CC, this will turn out to be a non event for most of the region. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

Upgrade for most 6z GFS. Things, to me anyway, seem to be beefing up again this morning after a wobble

could you post it for us mate? :)

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