North West England Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013

[snowdrifter]

Bbc news24 graphic just had snow over all nw england.

[Tim B]

Here we go, edge of the main system is starting to nudge in.

[MrSunshine]

I know, Dave. Would be just my luck that it will stall before it gets to me lol. I'm not giving up hope though

Never give up, always the 1st and most important rule. Would love it to stall over us, its plausable because that's how last nights snow for me arrived, there's still patchy light snow here right now. If it were to stall in the same place it would be game on for all of us without doubt.

[snowdrifter]

Please ggo more n than e...

[chiffer]

Can't believe its not stopped snowing!

[cfallon]

Can't believe its not stopped snowing!

Just a shame it's dandruff!

[MrSunshine]

Can't believe its not stopped snowing!

I know mate incredible, modest accumulations though!

[Joe Bloggs]

If anything, the band is actually further north and east than the 00z GFS forecast for 6am. Has to be a good sign surely? If it ends up being correct we should have snow here about 3pm.

Will be a good test of the model today.

[MrSunshine]

If anything, the band is actually further north and east than the 00z GFS forecast for 6am. Has to be a good sign surely? If it ends up being correct we should have snow here about 3pm.

Will be a good test of the model today.

A great deal earlier I would have thought.

[Tim B]

Yeah based on its current speed and track it will probably be over Lancashire within the next couple of hours.

[iand61]

BBC forecast at 6am didn't look to bad for our region today although it is taking its time to get north of the Mersey.

Saturday looks interesting as well with more of the emphasis being on showers being pushed across the Pennines fron the east.

This set up, if the flow is strong enough can deliver for us.

i've watched the beginning of ITV Daybreak or whatever it is caused and as prt of their report into today's nationwide snow storm they had reporters around the country....South Wales, Bristol and Somerset.

Hardly nationwide coverage but maybe they shared the same car.

Just raided the Rabbit hutch for a couple of straws to clutch but the ITV version of the Met O. Amber zone covers more of the region and the forecast on Granada news indicated heavy snow for all areas south of the Ribble at least.

By this time tomorrow we will know who was right and who wrong.

[Andrew Owens]

It seems to moving pretty quickly, just a question whether it stalls as it gets closer>?

[wysiwyg]

OK just throwing this out there as a little bit of support for the "lone ranger" GFS. A comparison of the radar and the predicted GFS precip amounts since the 00Z.

GFS 00Z at T+3 (03:00)

Radar at 03:30 (forgot to screen shot it at 3)

GFS 00Z at T+6 (0600)

Radar at 0600

Strikingly accurate modelling by the GFS so far IMHO. (can you tell I'm bored?)

Big question is will the GFS continue to be right in the face of the mighty UKMO or will it all start to slide South?

[MrSunshine]

Just short of the Wirrel now, you just know its going to stall don't you.... or will it!

[toccylad]

Daybreak have also said snow wont make it to NW England

[macc2013]

Daybreak have also said snow wont make it to NW England

What area is Classed as NW England?

I live in Macclesfield so are we in the North west or the North Midlands?

[Weather-history]

Just short of the Wirrel now, you just know its going to stall don't you.... or will it!

The other possibility is that the front edge dies out.

I wouldn't hold our breaths. Better feet on the ground and if it happens, cheer.

[UV-RAY]

A nice 3cm covering of snow with temps at 0.1c. Not holding out much hope for anything today apart from a few light showers maybe, the front does look like stalling to the South of the region now, but you never know we may get lucky.

[MrSunshine]

Daybreak have also said snow wont make it to NW England

What do they base that on, the Met clearly say although patchy it will work its way northwards across the region during the day.

[Joe Bloggs]

The band is literally knocking on the door of West Cheshire and the Wirral now (surely this band is further north and east than progged at present)?

[UV-RAY]

The band is literally knocking on the door of West Cheshire and the Wirral now (surely this band is further north and east than progged at present)?

It that's the case then yes, the UKMO has it stalling south of there.

[MrSunshine]

The band is literally knocking on the door of West Cheshire and the Wirral now (surely this band is further north and east than progged at present)?

It is.

[Joe Bloggs]

It that's the case then yes, the UKMO has it stalling south of there.

I've looked and looked again on the MeteoGroup radar and the boundary of the front must be through Hawarden, and just a smidgen SW of the Dee Estaury.

[macc2013]

It is.

is that good for us then if its come a little early?

[Louise]

It's almost upon us, and it's just started snowing lightly again. I'll report back with anything major