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Scotland Regional Discussion - Friday 18th >>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

That Norwegian site is saying rain for Edinburgh on Monday into Tuesday: http://www.yr.no/pla...land/Edinburgh/ sad.png

no drop in uppers or 950s between the times and dewpoint actually drops so not sure why goes from snow to rain... need LS

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

That Norwegian site is saying rain for Edinburgh on Monday into Tuesday: http://www.yr.no/pla...land/Edinburgh/ sad.png

Shows snow throughout Monday and into Tuesday for Glasgow.

Mondy or BFT ?

Which will bring snaw to the starved?

Name change will do the trick? !

I know how you feel. Hopefully us snow starved kilters will be in luck within the next 48hrs. Also, good luck with the new home Catch!

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

The only forecast that's going to matter on that event, is nowcasting right up the moment it starts, through to the minute it ends smile.png

That Norwegian site is saying rain for Edinburgh on Monday into Tuesday: http://www.yr.no/pla...land/Edinburgh/ sad.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Hee hee, I've skiied in worse conditions than that many a time in Scotland, last Feb in Glencoe was a nightmare !

Might need to look as this before Monday by-tor....

http://www.bbc.co.uk...ristol-21093665

Edited by by-tor
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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

We've now completed a full week of the cold spell and are into the second week. Last Saturday saw SEly wind arrive. Saturday night into Sunday saw a front moving in from the north-west but it brought some wet snow to lower levels, much of the accumilations were on the high ground but briefly it was a bit of a winter wonderland here in the morning. But all in all that was a disapointing event followed by a band of rain that failed to turn to snow during the early hours of Monday. There was a little bit of snow in eastern areas during the week and some cold nights and a little bit of patchy light snow from a band moving in from the west around Thursday. The blizzard to finish the week failed as the band of precipitation failed to go beyond Dumfries and Galloway on Friday. But this was followed by impressive convective snow showers in eastern areas but the alignment of shower activity wasn't favourable for western and central parts and this has continued into Saturday. Some pleasant seasonal and crisp conditions here, some snowfalls here too and very decent snow further east. I suppose the only negatives is the last minute let-downs and how western and central areas have missed out on measurable snow depths, it's a pity that there hasn't been much lying snow here as it would have enhanced what has been pretty decent cold spell. I've not got too much time to analyse but Sunday should be a quiet and cold day with a risk of snow showers in the east. Eastern areas are favourable for the heaviest of the ppn of Monday - possibly falling as rain near the coast. For the snow starved Falkirkians etc there's a better chance of snow on Monday but it'll be a nervous affair, especially further west where the snow could end up to the east or the snow ends up on the light side.

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GFS 18z, different from previous runs so model variation continues but I'll focus on this run.

After Monday's event we keep the easterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday, possibly another go at a frontal snowfall

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It stays marginal for Thursday into Friday but the cold spell continues.

Followed by possibly another frontal snowfall on Friday

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It stays cold overnightb into Saturday - then we have the blizzard part 2 -

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Colder uppers hang onto north east areas the longest- here there is the greatest chance of this cold spell reaching the two week mark and possibly extending well into the third week.

It's all guess work at this stage but if we keep the cold spell going through this week and into the weekend - possibly further snowfalls which would improve surface temperatures - then quite possibly it could merge with the possiblility of further cold conditions associated either with the Scandi high lasting into the following week and possibly a Greenie high - this would create one epic cold spell. But we've got a week of model watching to go, it'll be interesting to see how the models handle the breakdown as we could see it be pushed back further, we could see further potential snowfalls aswell. I said that this current cold spell is the starter, it could end up being the most notable of the cold spells but I believe that this cold spells has occured as a result of a transition of synoptics following the SSW. This 'starter' has been a lot more potent and longer than anticiptated. I still believe that we 'should' see the proper effects of the SSW resulting in more substantial HLB and I suppose as we go through this week, we'll learn about the sort of weather we'll experience during the first few days including possible snowfalls that aren't yet appearing on the models, and we'll also learn a bit more about what could follow.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

no drop in uppers or 950s between the times and dewpoint actually drops so not sure why goes from snow to rain... need LS

No idea, certainly far from being rain here, 1.4/-0.8C now and dropping, and as you say no sign of a warmer sector aloft, although that is the only explanation.

Anyway, cautionary note on Monday - we've been here before with marginal events and sometimes it can go wrong, especially near the coast. The NMM gives a sleet fest at the east coast, (in fairness it had sleet for Fife for all of today and all of the precipitation that fell was snow) due to a warmer sector, with uppers around -6/-5C mixing in around 6-9am, just as the precipitation is getting started. The NAE, in contrast, holds it at -7C at highest, which would pretty much ensure an all snow event, given the intensity of the precipitation on offer.

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After this, on all models, things start to get a bit iffy, with winds generally somewhere from SSE to ESE and uppers ranging from -6C to -8C. The safest route for me looks to be the UKMO, which turns the flow southerly by evening, probably drying things out north of the occlusion, calling a halt to the party before it starts to get messy:

13012200_1912.gif

Tuesday could go a number of ways, with some kind of marginal easterly flow on offer or with a southerly type flow and a dying wrap around occlusion over southern Scotland

PPVK89.png

The route the FAX chart offers from then on is, for the first time in a long time, not the same route offered by UKMO.

The FAX gives a slack cold easterly flow gradually turning things drier again with a ridge of high pressure in situ, with a chance to enjoy the possible snow cover.

PPVM89.png

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UKMO raw brings the Atlantic in:

UW120-21.GIF?19-18

So, in summary, an awful lot going on, with a lot of potential snow but also a lot of opportunities for things to go wrong, but, as ever, who dares wins, and at least we're very much in the game for the foreseeable.

My big worry is the lack of a clear spell, so we should really be aiming to max out the cold entrenched at the surface level overnight. DP now down to -1.6C though so there shouldn't be any thaw tonight.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

Even if much of Scotland hasn't received any snowfall, I'm very grateful that it's halted the incessant rainfall and we've had plenty of cold, crisp and sunny weather. This is far better when it follows a dumping of snow, but it's welcome all the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

gfs-1-42.png?0

It certainly wouldn't take much of a southward correction on this GFS run for us to maintain -8C uppers right through from now until Wednesday at the very earliest.

Certainly the trend has been for a more robust cold pool to remain over us for the entirety of tomorrow while maintaining similar precipitation amounts. As presently modelled we're looking at an impressive dumping. Lets hope this doesn't downgrade.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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