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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

144 looks 'interesting' and very different from the 12z. Models struggling again!

gfs-0-144.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

144 looks 'interesting' and very different from the 12z. Models struggling again!

gfs-0-144.png?18

ahhhhhhhhhhh interesting very interesting!
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Uppers aren't too shoddy at 156. Another version of events is suddenly thrown into the ring!!!!

gfs-1-156.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

With all the latest models I think a trend is appearing

As always when a change is proged the models go OTT int hat direction only to correct as time moves on,

I.e when a clod spell is progged it goes full chat and snow fest then pulls back to the real world and often the outcome in 2 or 3 days.

what we are seeing is a massive ramp back to milder conditions and atlantic fed weather,

In my opinion i think this Milder spell will be reduced to a few days then another trend direction to look at, my guess ATM is N.e.

ties with all info we have and current model out put may well show this in the coming week.

Dont be surprised if this milder spell is only a southern/ south west event, maybe half the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

If we were under the influence of a mid lat high for the whole of Jan the CET could well return a value significantly below average, and significantly colder than what may transpire for this January. Some posters may view this as "faux" cold, but faux cold doesn't show up in the CET records does it!!!

As for the 18z, more snow events possible, tomorrow for the east and through till Weds for others,

13012018_1918.gif

Rmgfs603.gif

I suppose the 5 foot drifts cutting of my local farm, along with the 6 inches of snow in my back garden might get topped up, beats a CET figure any day.

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Posted
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot

Blimey, a ~920 mb superstorm in the Atlantic

gfs-0-156.png?18

Isnt that hurricane strength low thats got to be totally wrong could you imagine that hitting us

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

930mb this evening, GFS Pub Run excelling itself !

post-7292-0-61581300-1358634311_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Reliable timeframe i.e. out to next Thursday roughly, all models continue to show a cold outlook, with further outbreaks of snow affecting areas which have already been heavily affected by snow in recent days, namely SE Eng, E Anglia, Lincs, East Yorkshire, NE England, Borders and NE Scotland tomorrow and Monday and probably SW parts and west midlands/west country on Tuesday.

However, all the models are showing a breakdown of the cold by the end of next week, with rain and strong winds off the atlantic crashing into the country quickly, a rapid thaw would ensue - and no doubt further flooding misery, so by this time next week we could all be looking at a very grey wet scene...

I was anticipating we might see some height rises into Greenland later this month, given the state of the stratosphere.. still believe we will see them in February, but we might have to endure another spell of atlantic weather - but nothing as long lasting or as mild as the last one...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

There is some support in the ECM ensembles for the more favourable negative tilt to the troughing as shown by the GFS 18hrs run.

The cold might still end soon after but at least you go out with a bang!

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

I'm loving the gfs dartboard low special to blast at the block! It's still over 144 hours away...

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png

Even Phil Taylor would struggle to hit a given segment in that dartboard!!

It looks like FI is a max of 96h, and a return to mild is not but any means guaranteed looking across all the models this evening.

Wouldnt bet against cold hanging on, or even re invigorating over the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Ah yes a nice sub 950mb low approaching, if that came over, goodbye Britain! As ever you never find a day of GFS runs which never show such such a feature, which eventually gets watered down to a traditional Atlantic low.

post-17320-0-56642100-1358634164_thumb.p

post-17320-0-37868000-1358634540_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

Diffrence at 180 hours from the 12z and the 18z is the winds from the 18z are coming on a more south east angle to bring in cold air instead of a sw direction bringing in milder air

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Posted
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot

Ah yes a nice sub 950mb low approaching, if that came over, goodbye Britain!

Thought so looks like a hurricane to from that picture. Make the famous storm look like a sea brezze haha. Anyways...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Where have we gone?

gfs-0-186.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Greeny high fi?

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Posted
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot
  • Location: Afan Valley South 4 Miles Port Talbot

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

even ECM is showing it actually hit us at 960mb thats crazy.

500 Dam to

Edited by David 'Minty' Hill
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Amazing looking at the jet forecast at 168 hrs,heading straight for the UK and then BOSH! most energy deflected south-east and even some sent straight back west!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Deep Low you mean the 940mb jobby on the ecm at T168 which would match T150 on the GFS????

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

Ah yes a nice sub 950mb low approaching, if that came over, goodbye Britain! As ever you never find a day of GFS runs which never show such such a feature, which eventually gets watered down to a traditional Atlantic low.

was there not a feature progged like this recentlly might have been around t 240, very simliar.

I am not saying anything this deep would come off but might be a trend reappearing!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

Amazing looking at the jet forecast at 168 hrs,heading straight for the UK and then BOSH! most energy deflected south-east and even some sent straight back west!

what in your opnion is causing this ? and what could it mean? ........
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