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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Hi YS - yes: you are right that we should enjoy the here and now if you have it. I have to busy myself with looking at the models for some sign of winter extension, and probably therefore the gloom in my posts because the cold is going to disappear for a while...

For all those enjoying the now and not desperately looking into the future for some sign of cold then I apologise for the increasingly frustrated tone of my posts. It is tough to see every model trending away from the cold when so many others have snow, the long term forecast was for snow, and the cold that we have just had should have delivered one way or another and didnt.

Perhaps I'll take a break from it all for a while and come back when everyone has seen mild and rain return and the playing field is level once again (and also green like the ones around here!!) See you in a few days.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
  • Location: Hanwell, west London

Mods, please don't move this as it is a genuine question which has been niggling me all winter. I honestly do not understand why such negativity appears so quickly, even - or particularly - from 'respected' posters such as TEITS and Steve Murr. Please, someone tell me why, when cold is shown in FI, we are told by you to 'take it with a pinch of salt', or 'never trust FI', yet when any mild scenario is shown you start shouting 'long way back for cold', or 'game over' etc. I don't understand the psychology. This cold spell is not even over yet, but your tone is as if it never happened. It isn't even mid-January yet, there's still a full two months (at least) in which we can get sustained wintry weather. Apologies if this seems a convoluted post but the negativity which pervades this thread makes it so hard for others to learn sometimes.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
  • Location: Hanwell, west London

Morning all..

Wanted to post seeing some of my tweets from earlier have been mentioned on here and also it's a good time to highlight a few features of interest. As ever twitter is not the place for more in-depth discussion, it is a way to get a piece of information out, and as ever, 'you' take that information as you will. When I comment on the EC ENS I am simply putting what they show into text format, so again take them as you will.

In a way I think Steve M is correct, but perhaps not using as such a strong word as "denial", that the weather is and will change. The synoptic evolution of late clearly has been a case of lows attempting to come into the UK but being 'deflected' south or south-east into France. The reason for that is clear and it's been down to the block to the north-east and as someone rightly mentioned, you don't need a 1040mb parked to the NE to produce what we have had. However, the pattern has and will change and in a way ironically down to the SSW;

http://wekuw.met.fu-...l&lng=eng#fig11

If you flick through those charts (100hPa), essentially the bottom of the strat/top of the trop, you will see that the strat images starts with that nuisance 'daughter low' over NE Canada which is a remnant low of the split of the vortex, but note to the N and NE of the UK there is a ridge, albeit minor, but it's there. However, if you follow that low whilst it does weaken it moves across the N Atlantic and becomes quite dominant whilst high pressure remains more influential on the Pacific side of the pole, that is the major change and that is why, on this occasion, the Atlantic lows will win out.

Now, looking at what we have had and we still have. By this Friday the colder weather across the UK will have been in place for essentially 2 weeks, so that's 2 weeks of January, pretty much half of the month and this still is the UK and not Canada. That, in my opinion, is a pretty noteworthy period of cold weather. As usual there will ALWAYS be some places of the UK that don't get as much snow as others, or don't get any at all, but that's the way it always goes, just like in summer when someone gets an impressive thunderstorm yet 30 miles away, nothing.

What I will go on to say is that this winter is shaping up to be one of quite significant extremes and I feel that trend will continue. Because of the state of the stratosphere I don't believe that once this unsettled spell sets in it will continue throughout February, not just because of the strat but for other reasons as well. I really do honestly believe, also in association with the EC32 as well, that a more blocked pattern will return, whether it's as extreme as some of the scenarios 'GP' has highlighted, perhaps not, but still colder weather does seem likely once again.

However and personally I believe these two weeks are likely to be the UK's "winter" mind. To get the longevity of this again and also the amount of snow through the middle and latter half of February will be a tough ask, clearly not impossible, but it'll be a tough ask. All in all, milder, wetter and windier yes for a time, but throughout the whole of February?...Not if you ask me.

Sometimes 'worrying' about what may or may not happen longer term is pointless because as we have seen the weather can change so quickly. Beginning of January we were coming out of a serious amount of flooding, not a frost in sight and now look what we have and still are having. I hope those who like cold weather have and continue to enjoy this weather simply because synoptically it has been impressive, no-one can say otherwise.

Regards, Matt.

One of the best posts I have ever read on here.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

MetOffice forecast Day 6 to 30. There are indications that the cold air may make more advances towards the UK by the end of the period. Colder weather and below average temperatures then probably come to dominate once more towards mid-month. In terms of rain and snowfall, southern parts in particular will probably start wetter than average, but trend to nearer normal by mid-month, while the north will probably see drier than average conditions for much of the period.

No surprise that the SSW will probably not be enough to make January 2013 a below average CET month, they generally turn things warmer it seems....

January 1947 was a warm CET month at 2.2*C

What looks most intriguing is the end of February and into March. I suspect to see upgrades in the future regarding this, having a brief look at the CFS and it's indicating many things. Looking at just the trends, Greenland heights/Scandinavia heights and true blocking and undercuts. I think we are looking realistically 2 weeks of mild, wet and very windy weather. Something more seasonal for the British Isles.

I suspect that a very strong vortex over Russia will allow strong heights to build northwest of Greenland come late Feb/into March.

1607dd2.png

When was the last time we had a very good end of February Spell? I don't remember one in my lifetime.

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Mods, please don't move this as it is a genuine question which has been niggling me all winter. I honestly do not understand why such negativity appears so quickly, even - or particularly - from 'respected' posters such as TEITS and Steve Murr. Please, someone tell me why, when cold is shown in FI, we are told by you to 'take it with a pinch of salt', or 'never trust FI', yet when any mild scenario is shown you start shouting 'long way back for cold', or 'game over' etc. I don't understand the psychology. This cold spell is not even over yet, but your tone is as if it never happened. It isn't even mid-January yet, there's still a full two months (at least) in which we can get sustained wintry weather. Apologies if this seems a convoluted post but the negativity which pervades this thread makes it so hard for others to learn sometimes.

Erm yes it is mid January was last week a week Thursday see's the final day of January and theirs 37 days of official of winter left now

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham

Can i request a present say 6-72hrs Model watch section particualy through the coldest periods, it is hard word trawling through all the long range model watch to find just a few post on current synopis. The last few days have shown how sudden things change and little mention is given in this forum which is a shame for such a good weather siteacute.gif

Edited by beefy201
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Whats coming BFTP?
mild weatherrolleyes.gifI think blast was talking about a southerly tracking jet but next week looks like a southwest to northeast tracking jet sadly. At least RJS would admit this freeze has turned out more severe than he expected, I wonder if he still thinks the worst BEST is yet to come..... Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: KIdderminster
  • Location: KIdderminster

Can i request a present say 6-72hrs Model watch section particualy through the coldest periods, it is hard word trawling through all the long range model watch to find just a few post on current synopis. The last few days have shown how sudden things change and little mention is given in this forum which is a shame for such a good weather siteacute.gif

Really good point. This model thread is fabulous for people such as myself who are interested in up coming cold spells, BUT, once the cold spell is here, everyone starts to look 7-10days in the future, with very little information about what is happening in the next 2-3 days.

The spell of snow now forecast for the south this evening has hardly had a mention ? It wasn't even modelled yesterday ? Surely this is of some significance ?

Anyway, this is a great thread. Especially all the bickering !!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

mild weatherrolleyes.gif

ha ha yep i agree, dont know what im laughing at though, today is beautiful with clear skys and snow on the ground, would be happy with this for a while longer even if no snow, just a week of bone chilling nights to freeze everything up rhther than sludge under the snow smile.png

had the feeling BFTP knew something no one else did for the next two weeks?

Edited by Nick JB
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

well the met office are still going for mid feb for the cold to make another apperance will it be from the north or east well the met favour the north if you read between the lines just like some of the more senior members on this forum.but it will be painfull viewing over the next few weeks model watching a feel once a change appears the models constantly show the same zonal after zonal run after run we will not see any colder runs starting to appear till after the 5th i feel

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK people will close this one in around 5 mins so finish up or wait until i open the new one.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

ha ha yep i agree, dont know what im laughing at though, today is beautiful with clear skys and snow on the ground, would be happy with this for a while longer even if no snow, just a week of bone chilling nights to freeze everything up rhther than sludge under the snow smile.png

had the feeling BFTP knew something no one else did for the next two weeks?

Something about a southerly tracking jet, it was on an earlier page heresmile.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

That winter of 1968/69, that was mentioned in some LRFs back in November as a possible analogue for this winter, (Although Jan.13 has synoptically been quite a bit different to Jan.69), would be a very interesting route to take for most members on here!

The wintry spell, that continued well into March, began in earnest on 7th Feb, mid-Atlantic high retrogressing towards Greenland.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690207.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00219690207.gif

Very cold unstable northerly, heavy snow showers and some more organised troughs running south in the flow.

Then low tracked S.E. from Iceland, and heavy snow tracked across UK, with copious amounts of snow in S.E. of the U,K.

Then flow became more N.E.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690211.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690212.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119690213.gif

Weather remained wintry through most of Feb. and well into March, as high pressure became dominant over Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzen...00119690228.gif

If only, I'm sure we'd all bank that now given the choice! whistling.gif FEB CET: 1.0c MAR CET: 3.3c.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited by TomSE20
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Posted
  • Location: Hanwell, west London
  • Location: Hanwell, west London

Erm yes it is mid January was last week a week Thursday see's the final day of January and theirs 37 days of official of winter left now

Ok yes, well spotted - I meant late January. 37 days is quite a long time, more than five weeks!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK folks locking this one now.

New thread here

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