South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

[Coast]

I'm already there.

Happy Birthday GTLTW!!!

[Mark Neal.]

Owww. looking a little more interesting now on Wednesday morning:

But only for a short while:

Yes, though very light and patchy snow, those Precip Type charts are a little misleading as i have learn't in past, look at the precipitation expected for that time....

Edited January 21, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Chul]

Can anyone tell me what if anything will happen in Hampshire today/tomorrow? Sunny in Southampton at the mo!!!!!

[theprophecyman]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

Have a great Birthday GTLTW

[Olly]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

Happy birthday gtltw! Hope you have a great day!

[Lynxus]

Moderate snizzle / grauples again here

[cerneman]

Blue sky broken cloud, temps hovering around freezing,,,,,,,,Charminster Church in Winter finery.

[gottolovethisweather]

Happy Birthday gotto! Hope it's a good one for you. Your pressie is a couple of buns.

Have fun oldie

QS

Old buns or young buns.

Many Thanks to you and everybody else wishing me well.

Now back to my original question.

Where's Tuesday's event coming from, is it up from France or does it simply develop overhead?

Any ideas folks.

[Coast]

Can anyone tell me what if anything will happen in Hampshire today/tomorrow? Sunny in Southampton at the mo!!!!!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

[AWD]

Old buns or young buns.

Many Thanks to you and everybody else wishing me well.

Now back to my original question.

Where's Tuesday's event coming from, is it up from France or does it simply develop overhead?

Any ideas folks.

A small occlusion that comes up from the SW, stalls somewhere over the West Country and expands/intensifies before retreating southwards.

Although there are different variations of that from each model.

[AWD]

Summary from Ian;

W COUNTRY To re-emphasise snow probability tomorrow in fair part of @bbcpointswest area based on current expectations: 70% 5-10cm; 30% 10+cm

There must be support for the NAE from the in house high res Meto models as I take 70% to be a reasonably confident rate.

[Beltanemaid]

Happy Birthday GTLTW! I'm sure I'm not the only infrequent poster who appreciates you and the others for keeping this thread bobbing along with a great mix of information and observations as well as a bit of banter. It is so friendly! And more than a little bit addictive!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The NMM has always seemed to follow GFS precipitation charts lately.... The NAE has been the most accurate at +24 so far this winter , and i think that is the reason forecasters can't dismiss the idea .

[chris55]

from Ian

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY To re-emphasise snow probability tomorrow in fair part of @bbcpointswest area based on current expectations: 70% 5-10cm; 30% 10+cm

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Just to emphasise: previous tweets re Tuesday snow also very much apply to Exmoor & Dartmoor when I'm mentioning Devon & Somerset.

[Dampdorset82]

Looks like the snow signal is for shaftesbury upto evesham northwest to brecon beacons the down to neath then back through to Exeter (Exeter likely to be snow to sleet/rain) . Areas further south and east to within 3-5 miles of the coast will get light sleet and 0-3 miles of the coast will be light rain potentially freezing rain to begin with.

the snow prone areas will look at 5-10 cm lower areas 3-5cm. The greater risk between 6pm-12am Tuesday for the heaviest ppm. will then going into Wednesday morning fizzle out to the south of our region and will remain cold.

The likely hood of milder air pushing in on Saturday is about 60% at this stage with all models coming on board with the evolution of the transistion all slightly different with each model hence the 60%.

[Mark Neal.]

Happy Birthday Tony, Hope you have a fantastic day! Snow on the ground for the big day, don't think i have seen that happen on mine lol

Edited January 21, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[gottolovethisweather]

They look fresh

Nice baps.

Can I have an Aberdeen Angus burger in mine please.

Edited January 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[TwisterGirl81]

BBC weather are showing snow for my area and even East Cornwall too on Tuesday around tea time, woo hoo

Edited January 21, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[gottolovethisweather]

Check this out, don't they know its my Birthday.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

I've got only ONE more chance of SNOW before the assumed breakdown takes hold next weekend.

That chance is high at 80% and the precipitation amount expected is...................................................................... NIL.

Thank god I don't follow these literally and neither should anybody else but what it does show is that anything could happen in the next 200 half hours.

Edited January 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Well the temp has hit 0.0°C so the thaw continues. hopefully we can all get a top up would be a bonus

[Coast]

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

That chance is high at 80% and the precipitation amount expected is NIL.

I think you may just see a few flurries, but you'd think they'd organise something deeper for you birthday wouldn't you?

[fergieweather]

Summary from Ian;

W COUNTRY To re-emphasise snow probability tomorrow in fair part of @bbcpointswest area based on current expectations: 70% 5-10cm; 30% 10+cm

There must be support for the NAE from the in house high res Meto models as I take 70% to be a reasonably confident rate.

Don't lose sight of EC which produces significant snow into W Country & S Wales tomorrow eve/night.

[Coast]

Can I have an Aberdeen Angus burger in mine please.

Tesco one? Nay......

[gottolovethisweather]

Coast, if you are/were at home, I think it would be all eyes to your South right now, at least according to the radar it is.

Edited January 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[twister2005]

Can any tell me here in gloucestershire are we likely to see snow from this system tuesday getting v confused ??