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London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Oh ok.

If that is the case I find that outragious that the BBC can do that!

Hammond been giving live broadcasts on BBC news all morning:

"Substantial snow"

"Major disruption"

Our whole region covered in snow!

Hard to believe that will all now be replaced by rain graphics come later today!

Well when you have live TV forecasts on the news channel saying disruptive snow! What do u expect?

Of course there will be excitement

agree it would be ashame

As they have been relatively good during this cold spell

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

GFS 06z 850hPa Theta-E and 850hPa Theta-W values for tomorrow evening both point to an atmopshere that is condusive to rain, not sleet nor snow with Theta-E = 13c (0% chance of snow), and Theta-W = 4c (34% chance of snow)

Would love to be proved wrong (ie GFS is wrong) and NAE has rain for the vast majority of the SE, too.

Hopecasting/clutching at straws := the cold surface layer (ie between 1000hPa and 850hPa) will be cold enough to modify precipitation to snow inside heavier bursts.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Agree. Feel a few people are getting over-excited at the prospect of not very much!

Hammond been giving live broadcasts on BBC news all morning:

"Substantial snow"

"Major disruption"

Our whole region covered in snow!

The BBC do seem to be on to the tail of something they won't let go of currently :unsure: I can't see where quite that's coming from (at the excitement levels being touted) at the moment and anything that is likely to be about rapidly turns to rain, so any disruption would be short-lived.

One to watch and see who has got this right!

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Met office warnings if there are any for our region might shed some light on this

So no warnings = old data maybe

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Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

Exactly, it seems that the models are not predicting snow for us tomorrow night, however there are on a marginal side guys. It depends how fast the atlantic air is stepping in..I dont know if the BBC uses out of date data but it would be really outrageous if they all change it later to a rain/sleet event..What concerns me also is that the metoffice has responded on my tweet rain/sleet or snow..

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

And also for members in here hoping for a Streamer event I urge you to have a read of this little post I put together on the 2009 event, it is a really in depth look at how that event unfolded and you will see we are a million miles away from anything like this ad we were in this current cold spell.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/53635-thames-snow-streamer-event-12nd-feb-2009/

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Guest bjaykent

Last night was fascinating stuff, watching the potential Thames streamer set up and build in the small hours, even had the ENE wind for it in the estuary but the Belgian snake refused to play ball, if the snake had cooperated the totals would have been a lot different today

It was a bit of fun for the few of us online around 2.00am, it did pep up quite nicely for a while, even had some moderate snow for a time with temps falling back to zero, but as soon as it began to fade, up went the temp and sadly started to melt again, just a slight dusting in places left now..
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

So no warnings = old data maybe

You'd think they would be analysing the latest data though and taking advice from Exeter surely? We need an inside view where's Mr Fergusson?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey

You'd best get on to BBC then to change their weather forecasts. as they have a risk of disruptive snow for this region tomorrow night!

As i said earlier this was always going to be a marginal and nowcast event for the SE, expect the BBC guy has taken his pick of the various model solutions, latest NAE charts leaning more towards a snow/sleet/rain affair, so can only go on what i see. Too marginal to call at the moment, what individuals get is likely to depend very much on heights ASL.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If you look at the latest NAE the problem is less trough disruption which means that the fronts move through quicker and the surface flow ahead of the precip isn't as favourable.

Even looking at the earlier NAE the snow on the BBC still seems a bit over the top for the se.

The UKMO do use the 4km model but that only goes out to T36hrs, perhaps because of where that places the low at that time they think taken forward that goes against the NAE.

Even BBC radio five are playing up the snow for the se and they have had plenty of time to be updated by the UKMO so perhaps we should just ignore the latest NAE.

Best wait for the evenings model runs but if you're in the se you need to see that shortwave trying to form:

post-1206-0-40531900-1359028820_thumb.gi

The NAE 00hrs had more of a dig south of that shortwave energy, the more that digs south this will help pull the surface flow in from the se.

The later NAE 06hrs run had less energy digging south and because of this the surface flow is less favourable.

post-1206-0-98412400-1359029102_thumb.gi

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

And also for members in here hoping for a Streamer event I urge you to have a read of this little post I put together on the 2009 event, it is a really in depth look at how that event unfolded and you will see we are a million miles away from anything like this ad we were in this current cold spell.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/53635-thames-snow-streamer-event-12nd-feb-2009/

fantastic read that Paul cheers

That really was an epic night for snow

And everything was just perfect

We didn't have anywhere near a strong enough east influence for that during this cold spell

Thanks for that information

Will look forward to our next dose of continental cold now with a better understanding of how these things come together

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

Live TV Forecast from BBC:

Disruptive snow for this region tomorrow, snow graphics galore.

If later, that all changes to rain, I will completely boycott BBC TV forecasts and listen to members on here.

Astonishing that they could possibly forecast such a bold weather event and get it wrong the day before!

Some members suggest sleet a best, that is a wide difference to TV forecasts.

Who will be right?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

OK, only thing I can conclude is they are talking about events further North of our region. Just nipped into NW Extra to get a selection of stuff and animating tomorrows projected precip, it's almost all rain through the darker hours for us:

9784513e8998c0948d8bdb17e53aafb7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

OK, only thing I can conclude is they are talking about events further North of our region. Just nipped into NW Extra to get a selection of stuff and animating tomorrows projected precip, it's almost all rain through the darker hours for us:

9784513e8998c0948d8bdb17e53aafb7.gif

bbc forecast looks nothing like that

Maybe they are ignoring computer models and adding human interpretation

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Build a snowman by order of the GOVERNMENT! Environment Agency urges homeowners to pile up ice and prevent flooding by delaying thaw

http://www.dailymail...aying-thaw.html

post-10773-0-37037200-1359024425_thumb.j

I wonder if they will send the snow police round to check up on us all !

Sounds like a good idea tbh, I think it's something countries used to big acumilations do already.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

latest meto warning map showing london area north for snow

That would correlate with the NMM I've just animated, but it turns rapidly to sleet then rain in the early hours - only any good for the night owls in here as it could all be gone again by Saturday morning.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It looks like the UKMO have taken into account the latest NAE otherwise those warnings would have included the whole se area.

For newcomers to the thread see my post on the previous page which explains what needs to happen for a better snow event for the whole area.

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Posted
  • Location: PEVENSEY , EAST SUSSEX
  • Location: PEVENSEY , EAST SUSSEX

only any good for the night owls in here as it could all be gone again by Saturday morning.

anyone fancy doing night time sledging? clapping.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I guess at best a few more people might fall over on their way out of the pub tomorrow night - A and E should be pleased......

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

I guess at best a few more people might fall over on their way out of the pub tomorrow night - A and E should be pleased......

I'm down the pub tomorrow evening! Hopefully a snowy walk home tomorrow night :-)

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