ireland Ireland Regional Discussions 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[BornFromTheVoid]

Slow motion shot from last night

[Rocheydub]

So, as I mused over on the MOD thread a couple of days ago, the key thing with our future weather and potential for proper cold, is the movement of the low pressure system currently modeled (about 120 hours) at the southern tip of Greenland. If that moves up the west coast of Greenland, or the vast majority of it splits up the west side, then we are in a game on scenario, as this will allow height rises to our north, and also drag the PV more Westerly towards west Canada.

The 06 GFS just hinted at this occurring, so I will watch the 12z runs with great interest indeed!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Slow motion shot from last night

Excellent stuff - we had sereral bright flashes of lightening and loud thunder for about 20 minutes around 12.30am this morning at my location

Beautiful bright sunny if rather breezy day here today though

EWS

[Earth Wind and Snow]

So, as I mused over on the MOD thread a couple of days ago, the key thing with our future weather and potential for proper cold, is the movement of the low pressure system currently modeled (about 120 hours) at the southern tip of Greenland. If that moves up the west coast of Greenland, or the vast majority of it splits up the west side, then we are in a game on scenario, as this will allow height rises to our north, and also drag the PV more Westerly towards west Canada.

The 06 GFS just hinted at this occurring, so I will watch the 12z runs with great interest indeed!

Yeah I noticed that too - the first time GFS has hinted at this and within T120 so well worth seeing if other models latch on to this later - either way I feel that next Monday night / Tuesday morning has the potential to give favoured spots a good covering of snow based on current charts - the north-west obviously being best placed for this but winds are expected to be quite strong so showers could get carried well inland..............keep watching for updates to see if this can become a longer spell or if it will be a brief toppler...........could go either way I feel

EWS

[ronan]

I can see this being more than a brief cold shot! GFS precip charts show snow showers on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday! Looking forward to the 12z now to see if the trend continues! I reckon us folk up here in the north west are long overdue some decent snow!

[jules216]

is there a chance that dublin may see some snow next week? it looks at though that it may not reach us from north west or norherly winds looking at the latest models

[ronan]

As was said above, if the wind is strong enough then showers may penetrate inland quite a bit but whether or not they make it that far south remains to be seen!

[Neiller22]

I think everywhere up north will see a few number of snow showers and dublin should see some as it will be a strong northwesterly flow. I think some places could do quite well out of this especially ronan up there in the northwest. God they deserve it this winter!!

Ps I hope it's not that bad next sat in dublin as I fly to Chicago then!!

[stormforce 10]

things looking good for a bit of the white stuff next week, especially us north and westies.

[Rocheydub]

Indeed SF10. I'm hoping the winds will be strong enough to bring the white stuff as far as me! Looks like we'll miss out again from that, but if the northerly does develop (even if it is short life) we'll be in better position!

[The watcher]

If we can get a Northerly (straight), then usually coasts North, West and East will get showers.

Edited January 31, 2013 by The watcher

[The Eagle]

Definitely much colder from Monday with some snow showers but how extensive that shower activity will be is open to question. Beyond Wednesday it's ether going to just topple or we might drag in a northeasterly.

[Beaufort12]

Guys if you were me would u buy a sledge for next week? ha

[Sparky72]

I'm not sure what to believe about snow. Showing up on net weather but met.ie and met office uk not even a hint of snow.

[Neiller22]

Sparky what met I.e outlook are u looking at it? Met eirann outlook is very wintry looking! Actually more wintry than what they forecast for the last snow we had an I got hammered?? Just curious?

Met office also going for heavy wintry showers in ulster on Tuesday????

[Sparky72]

Sorry read met.ie again and it's changed!!! Was going on what I read earier in the day. As for met office it just shows rain for me but that is only on the app. I'll check the computer when I get home.

[sponge bob]

I reckon winter has shots its bolt meself, now if it you just dry up a tad in Feb I'd be happy.

Roll on March and the 20c plus temps.

Edited February 1, 2013 by sponge bob

[Rocheydub]

I reckon winter has shots its bolt meself, now if it you just dry up a tad in Feb I'd be happy.

Roll on March and the 20c plus temps.

Based on what sponge bob?

The latest NWP certainly disagree with you...

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I reckon winter has shots its bolt meself, now if it you just dry up a tad in Feb I'd be happy.

Roll on March and the 20c plus temps.

Thi k you might have been caught with yer pnts down here Bob

[ronan]

This sounds very encouraging!!

Roger J Smith, on 01 February 2013 - 19:49 , said:

This looks exceptionally promising for severe cold by the middle third of February.

The dive-bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK and in itself is a major severe weather event, but after a couple of days it will reach a position over central Europe that will allow a retrograde cycle just showing signs of life now to develop gradually and feed the coldest Siberian air west across northern Russia into Scandinavia.

I think there will be near-record cold in mid-February and that means daily means in the -5 to -10 C range, so a very severe frost and with a northeast flow there may be heavy snowfalls even without any organized low pressure, but this winter also has shown a tendency to storminess so I have the feeling once this very cold air starts moving in, there could be epic snowfalls with it.

The eastern Canadian vortex from my research can be expected to last about a week then start to drift northwest to become another part of the hemispheric retrograde cycle. Heights will then build over central-eastern North America and they could go from the current cold pattern to very mild in about ten days to two weeks.

I think it's coming anyway, and this storm on Tuesday is the pattern changer much as there was a severe windstorm around 1 Feb 1969 although that was more of a straight northerly blast. But the temperature signal from very mild to very cold is similar, and don't forget that also happened (a bit earlier in late January) in 1947.

[stormforce 10]

people this looks really concerning. look how tight those isobars are.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif

get a feeling a severe weather event is comin.

Edited February 1, 2013 by stormforce 10

[ronan]

people this looks really concerning. look how tight those isobars are.

http://www.wetterzen...pics/brack2.gif

get a feeling a severe weather event is comin.

Nothing concerning about it! I say bring it on!

[skywatcher]

Temps that low, but where? No good to us if they're in East Anglia or the south east.

Sorry - responding to post giving RJS forecast but forgot to link to the quote.

Edited February 1, 2013 by skywatcher

[ronan]

Can't post charts as on my phone but a definite upgrade on the precip charts for Tuesday and shows snow for most of Ireland at 72hrs! Could change again but this is definately getting within the reliable timeframe?

[mountain shadow]

Bare in mind that although we will see snow it will not be great amounts as the strong wind will push the snow showers through quickly. Over the hills in the North West maybe around 5cm, I wouldn't expect any more than 1-3cm at low levels.

When you do catch a heavy shower though, you'll know all about it. Poor visibility and blizzard like conditions.

Lovely.