WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

[Big Rain]

I think those chasing the cold still need to point out that 90% of the output is average ( born out of milder & cooler periods)

there is no cold within 10 days. The GFS is still trying to get cold at day 15, meanwhile the days tick by...

& just above for GP- the signals maybe thus- ie AAM state etc, however your posts seem to be getting shorter & shorter with teleconnection patterns that are lower & lower in direct correlation to the UK itself-

Maybe that in itself correlates to the state of the output V your postings over the last week around reload of cold- IE- SSW blocking pattern reloading, then GWO pattern driving amplification & now AAM driving mid lattitude cold.

At some point maybe someone should chip up with the 'persistence' factor of this winter... persistence is a royal PITA ( Pain in the A) however this years persistence has defied the teleconnective signals but the removal of any greenland blocking.

Without that the chance of anything sustainedfrom the North or EAST of North is remote.....

S

Not really true is it?

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows a nasty looking low over the south west at t96

At t120 ECM is the slowest of the big 3 to clear the low

But by t144 they all have high pressure over the UK

[Weathizard]

Quite hideous looking PV over Greenland and profile to the north west of us, massive and powerful, AH more of an influence at 144 on the ECM. Very similar to GFS though.

[Summer Sun]

The track of this little Low pressure system on Friday is still open to much change, could potentially be a potent feature, and not your average Atlantic Low. One to watch, not for the snow but for the unusualness of the synoptics and the risk of some high winds and heavy rain.

Looking at the beebs latest video they have nothing like that on there pressure charts they are going with there own UKMO chart at the moment

ECM seems to be overdoing that low at the moment

[Summer Sun]

t168 keeps the high over us as per GFS

[Catacol]

Modelling seems to be following a very similar path to early December: a deepening Euro trough, shortwaves cutting NW-SE across the UK.

I wonder how soon before models begin to develop heights to the NE, and what if any will the fate of any attempted easterly ? Will it share the same fate of the mid December one ?

The sun has been spokily quiet of late.

:-) - that's true. Earlier in January it spiked a bit, but quiet since then...

A question Stewart - you corrected my post in the last thread where I stated I didnt see the amplification on the horizon in the models by posting a GEFS mean anomaly, but it remains the case that ECM is not picking up that same amplification at 10 days (at least as of 00z last night.) I find that odd. Why would GEFS and CPC anomaly charts begin to pick this up in line with MJO 7 through 8, but the ECM ensemble remain so flat. I can understand the operational being off, but my understanding of ECM ensemble is that it is a mean of 52 runs (correct?) so it is quite a big "miss" of the approaching pattern.

[Methuselah]

I guess we see how it plays out. Some on here don't seem convinced.

The ensembles look good.

That would be me, then! I remain 'unconvinced' because nothing is certain: a week in meteorology can be a VERY, VERY, VERY long time...

That said, I do remain forever hopeful!

Roll on, the 12Z...

[TEITS]

Just quickie from me as I have little time.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130128/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

A far better set of ensembles than our previous cold spell. You may ask how and the answer is with our last cold spell it wasn't until nearer the time did the cold upgrade.

Iceland SLP mean getting better all the time.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130128/12/prmslReyjavic.png

Very much looking forward to the ECM runs on Wed/Thurs and into the weekend.

[bluearmy]

:-) - that's true. Earlier in January it spiked a bit, but quiet since then...

A question Stewart - you corrected my post in the last thread where I stated I didnt see the amplification on the horizon in the models by posting a GEFS mean anomaly, but it remains the case that ECM is not picking up that same amplification at 10 days (at least as of 00z last night.) I find that odd. Why would GEFS and CPC anomaly charts begin to pick this up in line with MJO 7 through 8, but the ECM ensemble remain so flat. I can understand the operational being off, but my understanding of ECM ensemble is that it is a mean of 52 runs (correct?) so it is quite a big "miss" of the approaching pattern.

mean or anomoly CH ??

[That ECM]

So, who saw that coming at t216 on the ECM. Interesting, agree with tests, good runs to come over the coming days.

[SMU]

Not really true is it?

& here is your dayime temp on that day

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013012812/96-580.GIF?28-12

Cold- what cold?

S

[bluearmy]

if it follows its 00z spreads, that depression should go se at day 10. the 850 winds would say otherwise. not great continuity day to day post day 6 from ecm.

[Summer Sun]

An unsettled t216 from ECM

Which leads to this at t240

Edited January 28, 2013 by Gavin.

[TEITS]

Just look what happens to the PV between +120 & +216.

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?28-0

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?28-0

How some aren't spotting the potential from these charts is beyond me!

Edited January 28, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[bluearmy]

So, who saw that coming at t216 on the ECM. Interesting, agree with tests, good runs to come over the coming days.

look as the spreads on the 00z ens run and you wouldnt have been too shocked

[Frosty.]

Just quickie from me as I have little time.

http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png

A far better set of ensembles than our previous cold spell. You may ask how and the answer is with our last cold spell it wasn't until nearer the time did the cold upgrade.

Iceland SLP mean getting better all the time.

http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png

Very much looking forward to the ECM runs on Wed/Thurs and into the weekend.

I wonder how it is that you and I and many on here today can find lots of positives regarding a cold outlook but steve murr is having none of it, as for the no cold within 10 days, well we have a cold snap this weekend which is only 5 days away and probably more cold weather during next week, even today's meto say trending colder from the north as time goes on with more of a wintry pattern developing from the north over time..what is steve m talking about?

[shotski]

Just look what happens to the PV between +120 & +216.

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?28-0

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?28-0

How some aren't spotting the potential from these charts is beyond me!

Agree, The PV is in a state come +216 and we have a trough heading into southern Europe and the Azures Ridge (sorry Gavin)

is Ridging north.

On a side note Steve Murr is a wise old fox on these forums and I'm sure we have an element of reverse psycology going on

[cooling climate]

The ens are showing a more and more amplified pattern with each run. The ECM just starting to

pick this up in its 10day output. With a pattern of low heights to the south east and blocking to

become established to the north my bet would be that we are back in the freezer so to speak

by the middle of the month, although turning colder in about 10 days time.

We should see a very negative AO and NAO through the second half of Feb mostly driven by the

strat warming that has been taking place since earlier this month.

[That ECM]

look as the spreads on the 00z ens run and you wouldnt have been too shocked

Agreed but people keep talking about a flat pattern and therefore many would have expected that low to have passed over Scotland. If it takes that path the the potential is very good IMO.

[mulzy]

I wonder how it is that you and I and many on here today can find lots of positives regarding a cold outlook but steve murr is having none of it, as for the no cold within 10 days, well we have a cold snap this weekend which is only 5 days away and probably more cold weather during next week, even today's meto say trending colder from the north as time goes on with more of a wintry pattern developing from the north over time..what is steve m talking about?

Where does it say that in the met office's medium term outlook? The extended forecast does suggest colder than average but with very high uncertainty - no mention of snow at all in the extended forecast.

I think Steve M is just trying to add a bit of balance - too much back slapping and popping of champagne corks at the moment. If that day 10 ECM chart becomes a day 4/5 ECM chart then I will start to believe.

Edited January 28, 2013 by mulzy

[chris55]

Looking at the beebs latest video they have nothing like that on there pressure charts they are going with there own UKMO chart at the moment

ECM seems to be overdoing that low at the moment

Ian F on Points West showed the BBC graphics with not much for Friday, but said he expects a much more pronounced system to develop.

[phil nw.]

ECM T240hrs is going the way those ens have been trending.Not perfect but more ridging and the high easing further west.It may still topple but with much less of a Canadian vortex to battle against the Northerly over the UK could well evolve into a North Easterly and deeper cold.

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?28-0

We can certainly see a much weakened vortex and more opportunities for a longer cold spell from there.

[bradymk]

Steve M I feel is quite right in what he is saying of no real cold in the next 10 days. However I still feel the real potential for a more sustained period of cold comes post D10. As long as you keep low pressure to our south in the med, it is quite hard to get mild weather for the UK and the models keep going with the trend of lowering heights to our south and amplifying the flow with a mid atlantic ridge ridging northwards. However as we have noticed this winter, greenland heights have been elusive due to dominant low heights to our north west so is this another period where higher heights modelled to our NW never come into a short timeframe or will we see our first good greenland high of the winter. MJO is looking great aswell as the many other teleconnections GP has posted but will they deliver? I hope so.

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm [along with the gfs in some respects] shows a very nasty low for Friday/Saturday time for southern parts. One to watch imho,and it shows that its pointless looking to far ahead when we have some good bait in front of us at a nearer timeframe....

[Frosty.]

Where does it say that in the met office's medium term outlook? The extended forecast does suggest colder than average but with very high uncertainty - no mention of snow at all in the extended forecast.

I think Steve M is just trying to add a bit of balance - too much back slapping and popping of champagne corks at the moment.

What balance? a balanced view of today's models is clearly showing a colder trend, a cold weekend ahead and potentially cold at least for some of next week and beyond. Nobody here is popping champagne corks, they are just being positive about cold prospects rather than being completely negative, if the models were showing a few weeks of swly mush,that would be different but they are clearly NOT.

Edited January 28, 2013 by Frosty039