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WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

]

What are you forecasting post day 10..-

S

You were forecasting the fat lady earlier,admittedly if there was no improvement in the modelling.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013012812/ECH1-240.GIF?28-0 no fat lady there even with my limited experience.PV seems to be weaker and where are the low heights heading?I seem to recall you went through a phase of posting that there was nothing of interest before the last cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

Just for I.Frost- the 552 Line approaching Greenland isnt the tell tale sign of ridging into greenland, infact what I said in the ling post - the ECM would be the height of the amplitude of the azores high- thats the best you get before subsiding south.

The mean flow being from the NW oscillating cool to colder than ave at times is good for Scotland, good for the ski resorts & on occasion good for the NW & through the cheshire gap-

S

Steve to be fair I have at times see you 'ramp' events up which didn't have a chance of coming off. We don't know who is going to be correct but it will be interesting what conditions we do see as we head into Feb.

My own personal hunch is somewhere in the middle - cold/cool shots from the north or north west and then a period of cool/colder weather from the north / north east.

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Posted
  • Location: North Lowestoft
  • Location: North Lowestoft

Im inclined to agree more with Steve Murr in the position reached about sustained and persistent cold developing and the significant correlators. I find this thread interesting and scientific enough to understand, but I never really feel the urge to contribute. But in the years I have followed this there seem to be certain types of posters...those who say what shows and those who like to predict what may show once the realms of 'reliable' step outside the model time frame.

I.e. a good number will look at T120...T196 and suggest a way forward from that which is contrary to what the models may show whereas others will do a decent model summary and not really delve too much in to alternative evolutions.

Its an interesting read, but when the two collide you often get the conundrum of...half saying the models are zonal, flat and mild for the next few days and others saying, ah but if the jet off canada had a slightly steeper angle and the AH ridged jut slightly further north its game on.

I think whats important as well is context. I saw some posts getting on for a fortnight ago that suggested a prolonged and sever cold spell that contingencies should be put in place. Thats fine, but prolonged to many means more than a few days. Prolonged mild to me means 2-3 weeks, maybe more, so I can see why people would sway when its said the other way. Then you have others who post monumentally technical post that are on the periphery of my level of understanding that are related back to basic synoptics in no manner at all. I would suspect half of readers would say, 'so what if the GWO is in Phase 8. What effect does the MJO have on the UK when a Bartlett can ruin winter.

As for the models, they are decidedly not showing a huge amount of potential for sustained cold and thats what they show. I can see the potential for ridging to Greenland, its been hinted at a fair few times in the last few model runs...but none to fruition in the reliable timeframe and I agree. Many who i regard as experts on here said a 2-5 day mild blip before a quick reload from the NE...apologies, but the models dont show that so come out, say why you believed what you did and what went wrong in modelling terms or otherwise (internal thought) so that we can all believe we dont just sing our praises when we are correct.

Simply the best post on here ever. Thanks a million. About time someone with some knowledge of how to read these weather models talked some sense in here. I think that there are hundreds of Netweather idiots like me that owe you a debt of gratitude.

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Hello everyone. First Time poster. Steve Murr posts were the thing that sustained ny interest in the last

couple of winter seasons. I looked for them in the gloomy days at the start of 2011 and had high hopes of a hisorical not hysterical winter this year( see what i diid just there ) How things have changed. Much as hate to do it i hope he is as wrong now as he when talking up winter during October and November (, Four wave pattern, Block City Arizona and some parts of Scotland being under snow for the entire winter ) Come on Steve, when ye were wrong, at least ye were fun and hopeful, Please get with the programme,

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I suppose I could go and start a 'What Do We All Think Of Steve Murr' thread, if Steve's the only thing y'all want to discuss...I'd rather not though...good.gif

Edited by Rybris Ponce
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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Hello everyone. First Time poster. Steve Murr posts were the thing that sustained ny interest in the last

couple of winter seasons. I looked for them in the gloomy days at the start of 2011 and had high hopes of a hisorical not hysterical winter this year( see what i diid just there ) How things have changed. Much as hate to do it i hope he is as wrong now as he when talking up winter during October and November (, Four wave pattern, Block City Arizona and some parts of Scotland being under snow for the entire winter ) Come on Steve, when ye were wrong, at least ye were fun and hopeful, Please get with the programme,

Welcome to NW Doghouse!drinks.gif Enjoy the rollercoaster mate

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's a bit annoying to hear all the moaning about no sustained cold, at the moment we have no cold, but there are good signs of cold incursions throughout the next few weeks and they could merge at some point around mid feb or just before into a more prolonged cold outbreak as some of the FI modelling shows.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

If everyone behaved themselves we would all start to understand sustained cold is not in keeping with the models output (yet) blum.gif So we shouldn't really constantly talk about it, nor is this discussion for people (or that person) who just keeps telling everyone sustained cold is not going to arrive. We know it's not going to arrive! Isn't it best to comment on what is going to arrive instead of arguing with users what isn't going to arrive!

We have an exciting few weeks coming up in my opinion with plenty of cold incursions coming in from the North and NW, which would definitely suit my location for a nice 2-4 day approx. covering.

I was hesitant in posting this (first time posting on the model thread), the reason why I was hesitant is I was scared to death I would get picked on by more experienced users telling me I've said something irrelevant. That's how bad some of the comments are on here. I only signed on last Friday.

Edited by SnowySouthPennines
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Hello everyone. First Time poster. Steve Murr posts were the thing that sustained ny interest in the last

couple of winter seasons. I looked for them in the gloomy days at the start of 2011 and had high hopes of a hisorical not hysterical winter this year( see what i diid just there ) How things have changed. Much as hate to do it i hope he is as wrong now as he when talking up winter during October and November (, Four wave pattern, Block City Arizona and some parts of Scotland being under snow for the entire winter ) Come on Steve, when ye were wrong, at least ye were fun and hopeful, Please get with the programme,

Welcome doghouse , I no Iv been there plenty of times, not a very nice place to be, weather it's in the garden or in hear after you've forecast a mild winter!!

You'll get the hunch in no time,

Cold = happy

Blow torch southwesterlies = sad

Snow = 8 pack of bears and a all nighter in the regional thread

Rain when forecast snow = prosaic/severe depression , a row with the wife and an early night !!!

Welcome

Shaun

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

A succession of toppler type scenarios looks the only hope for coldies over the next 10 days+

Hints at heights trying to get up to Greenie. But never making it past Iceland really. Giving us an Atlantic ridge that neither brings sustained cold, nor completely cuts off the Atlantic train.

If no proper heights are showing by this time next week, then we are getting mighty close to last orders for this winter. Lets hope something better shows soon.

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I'm firmly leaning towards the prognosis of GP et al in as such as I don't think there is a signal of any real note for mobile, Atlantic driven weather throughout the middle portion of February at least. I've not waivered in this stance.

The one clear trend I have noted is the erosion of low heights to our north, a weakening PV (on a general scale) and a much more amplified pattern setting up.

Just out of interest, what would your punt be? I respect and appreciate your views as you've been at this game a lot longer than I have!

Just have time to nip this in then really to concentrate on doing some other stuff. ( & sorry for the layouts & grammer of posts to that poster- I am rushing to post - as im juggling other bits )

I guess start with expectation: Feb should & can deliver widespread snow events for the UK ( whilst the probability tempers off week 4) So with that in mind the 'average' Feb month should still see some snow for all of the UK, but of course more over scotland.

The Met office ave for feb is 4-6 days

http://www.metoffice...1971-2000_2.gif

I think peoples opinions of what we 'should' be seeing have been distorted over the last 10 years. We should be seeing snow events & we should be seeing snow cover.

My my own personal expectation of feb is that an outbreak from the North & east should be in the Mix every year - because thats our average. ( & to Add I think January cold spell exceeded the expectations against the norm for nearly everyone on the snow front) but wasnt that exceptional V the more recent Norm- which has lowered peoples expectations.

Any pattern that revolves around the azores High is not very cold for the UK with a couple of caveats ( that being ridging to a Arctic / Scandi high or a greenland high - both of these links develop out of high lattitude blocking linking down to the mid atlantic & 'tugging' the ridge up ( take end of Dec 84/ start of jan 85 for example )-

So with that in mind we should be looking top down to see what the heights are like over the pole to see what the prospects are of getting that link up & looking forward the polar height field doesnt look sufficiently 'high' with + anomalies to see any high level blocking in the 8-10 timeframe- indeed the only model showing it is the JMA monthly.

Taking then those chances away we are left with an azores high where at best it touches the south of greenland in the form of an elongated ridge & then at worst is sat SW of ireland in a circular shape pushing the pattern East south East over the UK.

Will it ever get to greenland- It can, so we cannot dismiss the cold chances entirely, We can recall Dec 1981 when after repetative attempts it finally carved out a ridge that then got undercut- but that was 31 years ago- so we can see the sort of frequencies we are talking about.

I would say what we have at day 8-10 looks to be the pattern for a while, post that there are indicators from the Strat & Global teleconnections that we should be primed towards a more amplified period - plus alligning with the time of winter when the thermal gradient is at its weakest so we should be seeing our best shot at blocking, however to temper that we have persistence of no blocking over greenland this winter.

So a forecast summary would be based on historic analogues & the data we have seen ( historically again ) around H5 responses from Strat warmings in terms of when the periods of blocking are supposed to be prevelent then middle of feb should develop into a very cold pattern, however confidence is LOW as thus far this winter even the best teleconnector signals ( like the big warming ) have been muted across the H5 anomalies against the historic analogues presented ( 85 & 87) & for that reason it will 'probably' be muted again due to this winters current persistence.

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I still think there is huge potential with a NW/SE aligned jet rather than a w/e or heaven forbid a sw/ne long mild draw bore, our route to sustained cold is through a progression of reloads from the nw and occasionally from the north, with that type of pattern, one of the lows pushing southeast from iceland could slide through the uk and then draw very cold air from NE Europe into the mix, i'm very encouraged about the outlook as it stands and believe there will be a trend for more upgrades than downgrades in the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I really welcome and admire the fact Steve Murr and others who know what they are talking about post in here and expand my knowledge, and i really couldn't give a damn about their style of writing or their grammer! I'm just grateful they do.

Fascinating time to be watching the models. I do recall that there was excitement in December because of what the models were showing and excitement at the beginning of January in spite of what they were showing. and we know how things panned out. Better than some thought and not as "good" as others did (in terms of severity).

i do so want to believe that we can get to another even better cold spell. But i fully understand why some cannot see this in the model output. And though its happened before where the background has ended up leading the models, i do find this time around the silence of the Met Office pros is a bit deafening, whereas last time they were practically advising us to expect big changes in the models and ignore the mild runs.

So its more hope than feeling from me. What i want to see in the models is a greater degree of inconsistency in the runs of the next few days to show that they are having the troubles they were beginning to experience four weeks ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I really welcome and admire the fact Steve Murr and others who know what they are talking about post in here and expand my knowledge, and i really couldn't give a damn about their style of writing or their grammer! I'm just grateful they do.

Fascinating time to be watching the models. I do recall that there was excitement in December because of what the models were showing and excitement at the beginning of January in spite of what they were showing. and we know how things panned out. Better than some thought and not as "good" as others did (in terms of severity).

i do so want to believe that we can get to another even better cold spell. But i fully understand why some cannot see this in the model output. And though its happened before where the background has ended up leading the models, i do find this time around the silence of the Met Office pros is a bit deafening, whereas last time they were practically advising us to expect big changes in the models and ignore the mild runs.

So its more hope than feeling from me. What i want to see in the models is a greater degree of inconsistency in the runs of the next few days to show that they are having the troubles they were beginning to experience four weeks ago.

Very good and to the point. I also agree with what you say...But PLEASE can everyone get back to the models?help.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Cheers mate. Know nothing but hey ho

Give it a while and you will learn loads, trust me. The winter time on here is in my opinion the most exciting time to join. Since I joined just over 4 years ago I have learnt loads and continue to do so. The next few weeks will hopefully be very interesting if the cold is your thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

According to the Buchan Singularities the period of January 24th to 1st February is the 2nd stormiest period of January with a peak of the storms around the 31st - looking fairly accurate as its stormy now

February 7th to the 14th is also the highest chance of seeing a cold period in February at the moment thats exactly when ECM is picking up on a possible colder spell of weather

The Buchan Singularities is worth keeping bearing in mind

Recm2401.gif

In the shorter term the ECM ensemble agrees with a pressure rise this weekend

Reem1201.gif

Reem1441.gif

Reem1681.gif

After this a northwesterly flow develops

Reem2402.gif

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Wow, it's a bit feisty on here tonight, more so. Well another day and another set of model runs, no sign still of any sustained cold spell, yes we have the potential for some rather cold air via the NW, but we are still looking at transitional cold rather than anything prolonged. Also the ensembles still paint a fairly average picture so no point in posting those unless we are cherry picking personal preferences, the outlook remains one of fairly average weather for all with no signs of deep cold as forecasted by some. Still plenty of time for those golden charts to appear though.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The next few weeks will hopefully be very interesting if the cold is your thing.

Agreed, this is the business end of the winter now, around 4 weeks to make a fair winter into a good winter, we need those cold incursions to set the tone for the next few weeks and hope it culminates in a mid feb freeze which is synoptically superior to the freeze recently ended. If that happens, this winter will be one for the books and I have higher than average confidence in a big turnaround soon, any mild weather as now will be in the form of blips only.

Edited by Frosty039
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Good agreement between the 12z GFS and ECM ensemble means for day 10 with the -4

line covering much of the UK.

If you were very brave,you could say there was a cold spell on the way....

ecm.. gfs..

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Gavin,

Isn't it the Buchan spell or singularity. One being cold in the second week of February. Still a possibility I feel.

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

Good agreement between the 12z GFS and ECM ensemble means for day 10 with the -4

line covering much of the UK.

If you were very brave,you could say there was a cold spell on the way....

ecm.. gfs..

Could someone briefly explain to a clueless observer like myself what would need to happen on the above charts to turn a short period of cold weather into a longer period that would include more snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Gavin,

Isn't it the Buchan spell or singularity. One being cold in the second week of February. Still a possibility I feel.

Sorry yes edited

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

Great reading the posts on here as always.

I'm going to remain open minded about Feb 2013 and go with 'anything can happen' good or bad.

This thread reminds me of the beginning of Jan

.

all the 'disagreements' optimism' pessimism' arguing' no cold quotes' no sustained cold' zonal outlook'

Only to have a good cold spell to start mid month that brought me good snowfall.

Just goes to show, we are all here to talk models and current outputs, but the fighting corners for 'cold' or 'no cold' means absolutely nothing post 14 days!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Good agreement between the 12z GFS and ECM ensemble means for day 10 with the -4

line covering much of the UK.

If you were very brave,you could say there was a cold spell on the way....

ecm.. gfs..

Yes the broad pattern of Atlantic heights with the jet running NW to SE, the question is can we get the Azores High far enough West and North to pull in a Northerly plunge with possible repeat attempts - I hope so for those in places like NW Scotland and Ireland who missed out on the last cold spell.

With regards to Steve's post about easterly expectations, well until this happened :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050222.gif

I would think you had to go back about 9 years to find the previous High latitude blocking spell (in the winter) that brought winds from 'East of North' and going back from 1996, probably 5 years back to 1991. May be some brief episodes that I've missed but nothing noteworthy. Unfortunately that's been the reality of winters over the last 20 odd years.

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