Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?

[summer blizzard]

I know it's not strictly the right thread but i have a question and did'nt think i needed a whole new thread for it...

I recall that the massive extinction event which gave rise to the dinosaurs was caused my mass warming and a slowing of ocean currents leading to stagnant water and the production of large amounts of Hydrogen Peroxide. My question is therefore, if the ice melts at the North Pole and no sinking occurs could this theoretically happen again? What time scale would be needed to produce similar disastrous effects? How much warming would be needed to achieve this? Is this even a forecast-able realistic scenario?

[gagerg]

I don't really know what to expect in my lifetime with regards the subject of Climate Change for certain articles I read (for example some of the posts on Arctic News) and comments on certain Forums tend to depict something apocalyptic whereas there is also a number of comments on certain forums that tend to be somewhat more optimistic.

I guess a list of what I would expect to happen would including

2013+

• The Arctic melt out during the summer perhaps during late June, July or early August
• Increasing outputs of methane into the atmosphere
• The expulsion of methane from the Permafrost in a year or two
• The decrease of food reserves as a result of extreme drought in the Breadbaskets
• The breakdown of society, either gradual or swift within either a year, 5 years, a decade or a couple of decades.

I am very unsure of certain events due to the fact that my understanding of them are poor and thus with regards the more extreme scenarios I just make guesses.

[keithlucky]

There"s general agreement from GW supporters and climate realists that now that GW isen"t happening no support or evidence of World Temperatures rising no rise in sea levels, lowest hurricane3 since the 90"s .Plus very low solar activity leading to colder temps in the northern hemiphere in the last 4 yrs ,As we head into maunder minimum expect world temps to drop further in the next 20yrs.

[cyclonic happiness]

I'm expecting the European 'little ice age' to continue and for growing across the northern hemisphere to be badly affected by the cold and rain.

I'm expecting the snow levels to keep increasing until they reach a tipping point and we drop free-fall into the next ice age.

I hope I'm wrong and that the Earth warms up instead, but I don't believe it will.

I'd rather we got the global warming that was 'predicted' and drummed into us in the 80s and 90s, but they said that the winters will be milder and wetter and that the summers will be drier and hotter.

I don't know how much longer my workplace will survive without the promised warming

[BornFromTheVoid]

There"s general agreement from GW supporters and climate realists that now that GW isen"t happening no support or evidence of World Temperatures rising no rise in sea levels, lowest hurricane3 since the 90"s .Plus very low solar activity leading to colder temps in the northern hemiphere in the last 4 yrs ,As we head into maunder minimum expect world temps to drop further in the next 20yrs.

Ah now!

No temperature rise?

No rise in sea levels?

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures? The trend seems quite clear to me?

Changes in hurricane trends aren't aren't important to the climate change/global warming basis, neither is the weather over four years in an area. The only consensus in climate related fields of research is that it's happening, and we're largely the cause.

Fair enough thinking the climate might cool in the next few years, but don't just go making things up!

[summer blizzard]

There"s general agreement from GW supporters and climate realists that now that GW isen"t happening no support or evidence of World Temperatures rising no rise in sea levels, lowest hurricane3 since the 90"s .Plus very low solar activity leading to colder temps in the northern hemiphere in the last 4 yrs ,As we head into maunder minimum expect world temps to drop further in the next 20yrs.

Given that the climate is measured ove

Ah now!

No temperature rise?

No rise in sea levels?

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures? The trend seems quite clear to me?

Changes in hurricane trends aren't aren't important to the climate change/global warming basis, neither is the weather over four years in an area. The only consensus in climate related fields of research is that it's happening, and we're largely the cause.

Fair enough thinking the climate might cool in the next few years, but don't just go making things up!

I don't know where he's getting the hurricane figures, we've just had 3 of the most active seasons in a row even if they were full of TS rubbish.

[Weather-history]

The key for me is the Sun. It's current low activity as far as I'm aware has caught people out, some so called experts, were only 6 years ago of predicting a highly active Sun for this maximum. That has proved to be incorrect, now what is going to happen when we enter the next minimum phase with the Sun? And how long will the Sun's low activity last?

Edited April 5, 2013 by Weather-history

[UV-RAY]

The key for me is the Sun. It's current low activity as far as I'm aware has caught people out, some so called experts, were only 6 years ago of predicting a highly active Sun for this maximum. That has proved to be incorrect, now what is going to happen when we enter the next minimum phase with the Sun? And how low will the Sun's low activity last?

If I remember correctly it was David Hathaway from NASA who made those bold predictions and like you say they was way off base. IMO solar output also contributed to the warming prior to this, we had long periods of a very active sun which would effect temps and weather patterns across the globe.

[shuggee]

The key for me is the Sun. It's current low activity as far as I'm aware has caught people out, some so called experts, were only 6 years ago of predicting a highly active Sun for this maximum. That has proved to be incorrect, now what is going to happen when we enter the next minimum phase with the Sun? And how long will the Sun's low activity last?

More worryingly, imagine what would be happening now if we did have a majorly active sun. Just serendipity?

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed Shugg's!

Had we suffered the scale of max NASA initially predicted would there have been the spate of 'the world isn't warming' discussions the past 6 months? Would we have seen a more noted increase across this period of natural, and man made, cooling drivers??

Were the suns impacts to hold the type of variable potential there would be ample record of this 'unknown' , long cycle, climate driver in the paleo record and we do not see it? Even the last grand min would have been lost in climate noise had we not the solar observations to bring out a 'link' between the climate and solar activity?

As it is the most compelling explanation for the changes we have seen/are seeing so far is a human influence on the climate and the planets own reactions to that forcing (with natural variability still posting the largest impacts?).

The 'tipping point we saw the Arctic emerge from in the noughties may well prove to be the event to push this climate morphing into a more active period. Should this prove true then we should also expect the southern ice sheets to be impacted by the extremes and then become a similar driver to the Arctic (through Albedo flip and energy re-distribution)?

For humanity the food producing regions are our most precious regions and any intensification of the climate extremes there will bring very rapid and real issues to humanity over a very short time span ( no Joseph to tell us to prepare for 7 lean years eh?). The socio- economic issues arising from such a disaster will drive further turmoil for humanity. Better live for the day eh?

[Methuselah]

There"s general agreement from GW supporters and climate realists that now that GW isen"t happening no support or evidence of World Temperatures rising no rise in sea levels, lowest hurricane3 since the 90"s .Plus very low solar activity leading to colder temps in the northern hemiphere in the last 4 yrs ,As we head into maunder minimum expect world temps to drop further in the next 20yrs.

How exactly does one 'support' GW, Keith? Do we all stand in our back gardens, wearing AGW scarves and shouting 'come on you reds'? Observing climate trends is hardly an act of 'support'...

The only problem with the Quiet Sun hypothesis is that, as yet, there's been no measurable reduction in Solar output? Aye, changes to UV-levels may interact with the jet-streams, but global temps might well remain unaffected?

NW Europe does not equate to global...

[keithlucky]

Ah now!

No temperature rise?

No rise in sea levels?

Northern Hemisphere Temperatures? The trend seems quite clear to me?

Changes in hurricane trends aren't aren't important to the climate change/global warming basis, neither is the weather over four years in an area. The only consensus in climate related fields of research is that it's happening, and we're largely the cause.

Fair enough thinking the climate might cool in the next few years, but don't just go making things up!

I cannot find the link but a rise in Global sea temperatures was linked to increased hurricane activity so Warmists cannot pick and choose which data they want to see,further there is a global agreement that Global Temperatures are stable.The authors of Global Warmist have admitted there claim of surging World temps can"t be supported by there data http://www.theaustra...6-1226609140980

[BornFromTheVoid]

I cannot find the link but a rise in Global sea temperatures was linked to increased hurricane activity so Warmists cannot pick and choose which data they want to see,further there is a global agreement that Global Temperatures are stable.The authors of Global Warmist have admitted there claim of surging World temps can"t be supported by there data http://www.theaustra...6-1226609140980

Ok, so now hurricane activity is increasing? How is that related to oceanic heat content anyway? Now you're also saying global temperatures are stable. They haven't been rising and you're no longer predicting they will fall I guess?

That newspaper article does not say what you claim. How about you point me toward the peer reviewed studies that support your argument?

[Methuselah]

I cannot find the link but a rise in Global sea temperatures was linked to increased hurricane activity so Warmists cannot pick and choose which data they want to see,further there is a global agreement that Global Temperatures are stable.The authors of Global Warmist have admitted there claim of surging World temps can"t be supported by there data http://www.theaustra...6-1226609140980

So, selective use of data isn't solely a faux sceptics' pursuit, then?

[stewfox]

In the next 40yrs I expect to see 9000 blogs that its a cooling world non peer reviewed from non climatologist with little qualifications. 5000 blogs that natural variability is holding back/masking run away global warming. Peer reviewed generally by qualified climatologists. When I'm in a nursing home (35yrs time) 500 articles that the natural background variability masked 'run away warming' and its too late we didn't do enough (although heating bills will be less in old peoples home). 20000 posts from GW saying 'told you so'....15,000 charts from BFTV and 12,000 pictures of polar bears on floating ice bergs and 7,000 Daily Express articles about heat waves and doom and gloom and the Daily Mail moaning about immigration from Iraq who have just joined the expanded EU following Cyprus lifting of its temporary exchange controls 35 years after they were put in place.

Edited April 5, 2013 by stewfox

[knocker]

Deleted

Edited April 6, 2013 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

The key for me is the Sun. It's current low activity as far as I'm aware has caught people out, some so called experts, were only 6 years ago of predicting a highly active Sun for this maximum. That has proved to be incorrect, now what is going to happen when we enter the next minimum phase with the Sun? And how long will the Sun's low activity last?

That's a point but consider that the solar peaks actually occurred in the early 1950's and 1980's and yet the warming did not kick in until the 1990's. That's either one hell of a lag or we have a problem because the 2001 peak was fairly average.

[Weather-history]

Here's Philip Avery from 5th May 2002 giving a climatic forecast for around 2080

[DAVID SNOW]

Here's Philip Avery from 5th May 2002 giving a climatic forecast for around 2080

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M6KIC0xTMU

[stewfox]

Deleted

I spot a conspiracy brewing !

[Christy]

Hi!

 

Due to my work I spent the last few months in Budapest (hungary) and I was really surprised of the weather.. In the beggining of april there was snow everywhere and now its almost 30 degrees there. Honestly this extreme weather is scary a bit...

[scarlet5]

Hi!

 

Due to my work I spent the last few months in Budapest (hungary) and I was really surprised of the weather.. In the beggining of april there was snow everywhere and now its almost 30 degrees there. Honestly this extreme weather is scary a bit...

 

I know what you talking about it was the same in Poland.. It is really crazy, and I don't see the weather will be "normal" again in our life..   but who knows..

[Gray-Wolf]

This is why some of science prefers to call this phase of AGW 'climate Chaos' or 'global weirding'.

 

The folk who were doing the 'new ice age' or new LIA postings in March were warned that the snow would have to endure for any 'albedo impact' to manifest in the climate but still carried on regardless!

 

We had some deep drifting from the late snow and the recent switch from the cold airmass to a more Atlantic dominated regime saw one 7ft drift melt in a day! Folk need remember that the areas of H.P. that grew deep cold over winter will naturally do an about face once spring heat arrives (and days become longer than nights).

 

Should we find ourselves dragging in easterlies in July will we expect them to be cold? Well if Russia experiences another heatwave all summer I'd expect them not to be!!

[barrel1234]

I expect things to start quickly cooling down in around 5 years and continue cooling for around 20 years before starting to warm up again.

 

 

 I'd call it climate change rather than global warming as I expect my final years the world to be cooler or similar to what it is now.

[barrel1234]

That's a point but consider that the solar peaks actually occurred in the early 1950's and 1980's and yet the warming did not kick in until the 1990's. That's either one hell of a lag or we have a problem because the 2001 peak was fairly average.

 

 

Solar activity and the state of the AMO that's what will make the difference in the upcoming decades if the AMO goes negative expect some cold years ahead especially for the N hemisphere.