Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?

[Gray-Wolf]

I just can't see it barrel?

 

Paleo history shows that once an albedo flip start to be self controlling then rapid warming follows? Normally the Albedo flip is driven by orbital forcings (so a stronger solar impact) but this time it has been GHG forcing that allowed temps to kick-start the end of the last glaciation back into life (there still being lots of ice on the planet) even though the solar forcing for the north had been waning (due to unfavourable orbital positioning), and temps there falling , for over 1,000yrs?.

 

This de-glaciation will surely lead to further albedo flips as Greenland and the Antarctic react to the warming we have seen up to today, the warming we have already put into the pipeline and the abrupt warming impacts the current albedo flip is driving (permafrost melt etc).

 

We see two things driving warming and cooling in the geological record solar strength (through orbital positioning) and greenhouse gas concentrations.

 

Had we moved our planet closer to the sun would anyone be arguing for a cool-down? We increased the other thing yet folk are saying "it doesn't seem to work" or "We're heading into a cool-down"

 

Daft! , just plain and simply 'Daft!'

Edited April 26, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I honestly think I may see the magic 40 degree mark perhaps being broken, if i was to put money on it, I'd say it would happen at some point within the next 4 decades within a real freak heatwave such as 2003. 

I expect to see a lot more extremes in general, especially rainfall and extreme heatwaves. Also some ferocious winters too.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi E.E.S.91 !

 

I'm starting to think that the 'lack of jet stream', due to ice loss, will allow inner continental highs to grow ever larger (and hotter) over the coming decade and any leach out of heat (in the way we see the cold from such high's over winter) could easily allow 40c to be broken but far sooner than you think it may?

 

If we see the Med. burning again this summer and the Russian high expanded (due to an even more sluggish and convoluted jet on the back of last years record ice losses) with the new S. Greenland high also grown bigger then we may end up with any L.P. systems either kept west of us or tracking to our north. We might see some pretty high July/Aug temps should the Jet allow for us to keep dry this summer?

 

Personally I saw a synoptic switch from 07's mega ice losses so why not a further intensification of those changes on the back of a similar percentage drop last year? (anything but more rain and bloody flooding!!!).

 

Should the pack fail earlier this year (due to the impact of last years losses) then there will be even less of a temp/thickness gradient between pole and equator and so even less energy in the Jet. Inner continental 'Hot' highs will grow outward as the land dries and any low pressure will be forced around these mega blocks. I hope we see both incursions from the Russian High and the Med. High but even the Azores high would be a welcome addition to the party?

 

Keep an eye on L.P. not sitting on the S.W. of the UK (and doing a victory lap over the country) but being stuck out off west Ireland and then tracking to our north. Better still the Icelandic high just moving to the NE whenever an new one forms? Look for 'messy' charts with lower pressure at times but no real 'bullseye' lows over us? Look for High pressure permanently trying to push in from all directions.

 

Should you see such then think '2012 record ice loss',

 

EDIT: Remember the Australian Weathermen had to designate a new temperature colour for their maps this last southern summer as temps reached unheard of levels...why not here?

Edited April 26, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[barrel1234]

GW, What range of warming do you expect to see over the next decade?

 

  I do get your Albedo argument but I really think that you are not taking AMO switches into account enough. Thats my view of course that doesn't mean that we will agree on it.

Edited April 27, 2013 by barrel1234

[ANYWEATHER]

I love this video, hotter drier summers, and cold winters becoming rare, everything the other way around more like!!!!!

[UV-RAY]

I love this video, hotter drier summers, and cold winters becoming rare, everything the other way around more like!!!!!

Indeed, but those goalposts of theirs just keep on moving. I'm still waiting for a name change, we've had global warming and climate change but we need something far more catastrophic me thinks. Edited April 27, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[BornFromTheVoid]

I love this video, hotter drier summers, and cold winters becoming rare, everything the other way around more like!!!!!

 

The forecast was for 2080.

 

Indeed, but those goalposts of theirs just keep on moving. I'm still waiting for a name change, we've had global warming and climate change but we need something far more catastrophic me thinks.

 

Once again, the forecast was for 2080. But go ahead and use a typical "sceptic" tactic, move the goal posts forward 67 years and claim it's the other side moving the goal posts

 

It was mostly the conservatives that decided to change to "climate change" because it sounded less scary. In the scientific literature, it has always been climate change.

Did the IPCC used to be the IPGW!?

[UV-RAY]

The forecast was for 2080.  Once again, the forecast was for 2080. But go ahead and use a typical "sceptic" tactic, move the goal posts forward 67 years and claim it's the other side moving the goal posts:lol: It was mostly the conservatives that decided to change to "climate change" because it sounded less scary. In the scientific literature, it has always been climate change.Did the IPCC used to be the IPGW!?

When the MetO told us to plant Mediterranean plants they wasn't talking about 80 years from now and as for the snowless winters, well I think they may well need a new press officer Lol.

[BornFromTheVoid]

When the MetO told us to plant Mediterranean plants they wasn't talking about 80 years from now and as for the snowless winters, well I think they may well need a new press officer Lol.

 

Can you show me some evidence that the MetO said Mediterranean plant species should be planted by 2013?

I don't think they claimed snowless winters by 2013...

 

You can't keep making these claims without backing them up! 

[UV-RAY]

Can you show me some evidence that the MetO said Mediterranean plant species should be planted by 2013?I don't think they claimed snowless winters by 2013...You can't keep making these claims without backing them up!

The snowless winters claim was made in 2002 and was reported in the Guardian I do believe, as for the plants that was reported in all the media at the time. You must have selective memory loss BFTV. Edited April 27, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[BornFromTheVoid]

The snowless winters claim was made in 2002 and was reported in the Guardian I do believe, as for the plants that was reported in all the media at the time. You must have selective memory loss BFTV.

 

Still no evidence. I'm asking you because I remember them quite differently to how you portray them, so I'm giving you the opportunity to show that you'r not mis-representing, exaggerating them or making things up.

[ANYWEATHER]

Still no evidence. I'm asking you because I remember them quite differently to how you portray them, so I'm giving you the opportunity to show that you'r not mis-representing, exaggerating them or making things up.

There was a report in the independent on the front page of the paper dated march 20th 2000 and scientists claimed then that snowless winters will be common place in the Uk for that decade and decades to follow, so what went wrong?  We simply dont understand enough of the way our Planet and atmosphere works to make silly predictions for the future, this is just one of them.....  

[UV-RAY]

Still no evidence. I'm asking you because I remember them quite differently to how you portray them, so I'm giving you the opportunity to show that you'r not mis-representing, exaggerating them or making things up.

I can't post links as I'm on my iPad and can't access my main computer due to me recuperating from my surgery, but as the post above states the evidence is there, not that it matters though as the goal posts have been moved numerous times since those ridiculous claims were made.

[BornFromTheVoid]

SI, the posts states the evidence is there, it doesn't show the evidence.

 

ANYWEATHER, have you a link?

[UV-RAY]

SI, the posts states the evidence is there, it doesn't show the evidence.ANYWEATHER, have you a link?

I found it by Just typing in the independent and the date and year. Edited April 27, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Harve]

I can't post links as I'm on my iPad and can't access my main computer due to me recuperating from my surgery, but as the post above states the evidence is there, not that it matters though as the goal posts have been moved numerous times since those ridiculous claims were made.

Just to help you: you can copy and paste links from an iPad. Highlight the site's web address and click copy from the options that pop up? Then press and hold for ~1 second and a 'paste' option should also pop up.

[UV-RAY]

Just to help you: you can copy and paste links from an iPad. Highlight the site's web address and click copy from the options that pop up? Then press and hold for ~1 second and a 'paste' option should also pop up.

Thank you Harve.

[keithlucky]

SI, the posts states the evidence is there, it doesn't show the evidence.

 

ANYWEATHER, have you a link?

Met Office 2009 Forecast: Trend To Milder Winters To Continue, Snow And Frost Becoming Less Of A Feature

Met Office, 25 February 2009: Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future.(funny that the link to this article isen"t working).

[songster]

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

[Methuselah]

Met Office 2009 Forecast: Trend To Milder Winters To Continue, Snow And Frost Becoming Less Of A Feature

Met Office, 25 February 2009: Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future.(funny that the link to this article isen"t working).

I doubt that that prediction was specific to only 4 years, Keith? However, on the face of it...

[ANYWEATHER]

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Many thanks mate!

[Evening thunder]

 

I see I have been beaten to it, but my reply was going to be 'didn't know it was 2080? '

 

Hi E.E.S.91 !

 

I'm starting to think that the 'lack of jet stream', due to ice loss, will allow inner continental highs to grow ever larger (and hotter) over the coming decade and any leach out of heat (in the way we see the cold from such high's over winter) could easily allow 40c to be broken but far sooner than you think it may?

 

If we see the Med. burning again this summer and the Russian high expanded (due to an even more sluggish and convoluted jet on the back of last years record ice losses) with the new S. Greenland high also grown bigger then we may end up with any L.P. systems either kept west of us or tracking to our north. We might see some pretty high July/Aug temps should the Jet allow for us to keep dry this summer?

 

Personally I saw a synoptic switch from 07's mega ice losses so why not a further intensification of those changes on the back of a similar percentage drop last year? (anything but more rain and bloody flooding!!!).

 

Should the pack fail earlier this year (due to the impact of last years losses) then there will be even less of a temp/thickness gradient between pole and equator and so even less energy in the Jet. Inner continental 'Hot' highs will grow outward as the land dries and any low pressure will be forced around these mega blocks. I hope we see both incursions from the Russian High and the Med. High but even the Azores high would be a welcome addition to the party?

 

Keep an eye on L.P. not sitting on the S.W. of the UK (and doing a victory lap over the country) but being stuck out off west Ireland and then tracking to our north. Better still the Icelandic high just moving to the NE whenever an new one forms? Look for 'messy' charts with lower pressure at times but no real 'bullseye' lows over us? Look for High pressure permanently trying to push in from all directions.

 

Should you see such then think '2012 record ice loss',

 

EDIT: Remember the Australian Weathermen had to designate a new temperature colour for their maps this last southern summer as temps reached unheard of levels...why not here?

 

Wouldn't stronger heat over continents encourage the formation of a continental low (maybe not wet or cooler just lower sea level pressure and the attendant air circulation around it's periphery), as you tend to get over large continents in summer like the Siberian high is replaced by low pressure in summer?

I'd have thought this could encourage a higher number of cooler flows to be drawn down the western flank over west Europe. Not what I want to see but makes sense to me. Just thought and nothing scientific though

 

And of course one or a few incorrect or twisted, sensationalised or mis-interpreted media reports magically mean global warming doesn't exist. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I found it by Just typing in the independent and the date and year.

 

Ok, got the article! http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

 

Lets see what the MetO says in it... nothing. Not one mention of the Met Office in the whole piece nor the word "snowless".

 

There was a bit from a UEA CRU scientist saying snow would become rare and cause major disruptions when it does occur in 20 years time.

He also says that "Children just aren't going to know what snow is" which is a silly statement.

 

But no official or unofficial Met Office statements, and no mention of snowless winters by 2013. It seems there was a certain amount of extrapolating based on the short term snowcover trends, which doesn't appear too accurate at the moment, but maybe that will change over the coming decades.

 

The amount of exaggeration and misrepresentation of that Independent article is incredible though!

 

 

If you could direct me towards the guardian piece you mentioned earlier, I'd appreciate it.

[Gray-Wolf]

This is what i don't get from you faux sceptics, why does everything have to be 'tomorrow' or it's wrong? Past CO2 increases took hundreds of years to raise levels to what we have in mere decades. does this mean the planet will show a 'faster reaction' to the increases? in the past it took thousands of years for the warming impacts to complete?

 

The sudden losss of ice cover in the Arctic was an unexpected 'shock' for scientists working in the field. the impacts on climate that this level of loss were in the climate models from 2080's not 07'.

 

Our recent 'extreme weather patterns' are more linked to the rapid albedo flip than they are to GHG increases.

 

What have the paper to say about weather patterns associated with Albedo flip (seeing as we think newspaper reports constitute 'real science')?

[UV-RAY]

Ok, got the article! http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

 

Lets see what the MetO says in it... nothing. Not one mention of the Met Office in the whole piece nor the word "snowless".

 

There was a bit from a UEA CRU scientist saying snow would become rare and cause major disruptions when it does occur in 20 years time.

He also says that "Children just aren't going to know what snow is" which is a silly statement.

 

But no official or unofficial Met Office statements, and no mention of snowless winters by 2013. It seems there was a certain amount of extrapolating based on the short term snowcover trends, which doesn't appear too accurate at the moment, but maybe that will change over the coming decades.

 

The amount of exaggeration and misrepresentation of that Independent article is incredible though!

 

 

If you could direct me towards the guardian piece you mentioned earlier, I'd appreciate it.

Dont shoot the messenger, the independent for me is just as bad as the guardian. Anyway climate scientist did state the above, as for GW faux sceptics comment, there is nothing more faux than bad science dressed up as facts and that is what cli ate science is.