Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?

[Gray-Wolf]

Please do A.W.! I'm always saying that my biggest hope is to be proven totally wrong and turn out to be merely a 'doomsayer' (as Four has me down as!).

 

Sadly my track record on Arctic ice/Greenland mass loss and permafrost seem to place me closer to the pulse than the rubbish bin? I dearly hope that the way I'm figuring albedo flip/energy redistribution is far wider of the mark than my thoughts, over the past 7 years or so, on the above???

 

I merely say what I see (and study) once it's been around my noggin a couple of times?

 

I'd love to know the trick you guys have of seeing/reading all of this stuff and then have it all come up Rosy?

[stewfox]

So.... In my lifetime I expect to see I expect to see ice free Arctic year round and.

Year round ? has that been posted the Guardian recently didnt see that link please.

[knocker]

I will probably not live long enough, but the deniers coming up with their very casual rhetoric that they denied it in the first place.

[Mark Neal.]

I expect to see the global temperature continue to increase, the artic will continue to melt it seems & more extreme weather to come along especially in those areas that are not used to it!

[gaia90]

I have just read an article about rapid temperature increases. It says that it is slowing down.

But I ask how it is possible if the temperature increases were faster in the '80s and '90s (people were concerned about it more than nowadays), and the carbon dioxide emissions have continued to increase since then????

[ANYWEATHER]

I have just read an article about rapid temperature increases. It says that it is slowing down.

But I ask how it is possible if the temperature increases were faster in the '80s and '90s (people were concerned about it more than nowadays), and the carbon dioxide emissions have continued to increase since then????

We have been producing Co2 in great quantities for about  150 years plus, and obviously Co2 is still increasing. But ask yourself this, why do we still get cold Winters when apparently Co2 warms the atmosphere. Look at one of the coldest winters on record 1962/63, the coldest winter since 1740, why on earth did that winter occur like that when we had been burning fossil fuels for at least a century by then. So by now ,if C02 did warm the earth it would be logical to assume that the Earth would be much warmer by now, and the poles would have melted, and why did the coldest December for at least a century occur in 2010! Many studies show the planet is cooling , so if Co2 does warm the planet its certainly not living up to its job!

Edited April 29, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Methuselah]

We have been producing Co2 in great quantities for about  150 years plus, and obviously Co2 is still increasing. But ask yourself this, why do we still get cold Winters when apparently Co2 warms the atmosphere. Look at one of the coldest winters on record 1962/63, the coldest winter since 1740, why on earth did that winter occur like that when we had been burning fossil fuels for at least a century by then. So by now ,if C02 did warm the earth it would be logical to assume that the Earth would be much warmer by now, and the poles would have melted.! Many studies show the planet is cooling , so if Co2 does warm the planet its certainly not living up to its job!

But that's weather, AW. It is not climate...

[ANYWEATHER]

But that's weather, AW. It is not climate...

Yes, but would not the climate not just in the Uk but around the world  be much warmer if Co2 was such a heat trapper? Lets face it we have put enough in the atmosphere to test it out!!

[Methuselah]

Yes, but would not the climate not just in the Uk but around the world  be much warmer if Co2 was such a heat trapper? Lets face it we have put enough in the atmosphere to test it out!!

Good question...But, I think that the current rate of ice-loss (per kg not km²) world-wide has put latent heat more into the equation than perhaps it was?

[Gray-Wolf]

Most climate scientists dealing with Sea ice loss agree that, after the first 'ice free year' ice loss will rapidly make the ice free period from June onward. Once this occurs and we trap the 'equator' levels of energy in the basin we rapidly move to ice free year round (remember the heat is already there in the lower ocean to allow this to occur now!)

 

The only question is the 'first ice free year' many folk plump for before 2030 but i go for 'anytime now' and before 2020 (next perfect storm year 2017?)

[BornFromTheVoid]

We have been producing Co2 in great quantities for about  150 years plus, and obviously Co2 is still increasing. But ask yourself this, why do we still get cold Winters when apparently Co2 warms the atmosphere. Look at one of the coldest winters on record 1962/63, the coldest winter since 1740, why on earth did that winter occur like that when we had been burning fossil fuels for at least a century by then. So by now ,if C02 did warm the earth it would be logical to assume that the Earth would be much warmer by now, and the poles would have melted, and why did the coldest December for at least a century occur in 2010! Many studies show the planet is cooling , so if Co2 does warm the planet its certainly not living up to its job!

 

Hi ANYWEATHER.

You need to remember that even with the temperatures being a a degree or so warmer globally, that during winter it will still be very cold to our north and east. Even with a world 2 or 3C warmer, we could still get freezing temperatures and snow from a good Siberian easterly, but that our cold will generally be balanced by warmth elsewhere.

Lets look at December 2010 as an example.

As we remember, much of the month consisted of easterly and northerly winds for the British Isles, thanks for northerly blocking.

 

Sea level pressure anomaly

 

This northern blocking brought cold easterlies and northerlies for us, but also brought mild easterlies and southerlies for western Greenland and eastern Canada. This resulted in them having much larger positive temperature anomalies (+14C in a few spots!) than we had negative anomalies. This more than balanced out our cold!

 

Temperature anomaly

 

Remember that for any northerly wind bringing cold air south, the air has to be replaced by air moving north somewhere else!

 

 

What studies show the planet is cooling by the way, because I haven't seen them?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think what Anyweather forgets is that we know the scale of the energy imbalance that the CO2 forcing brings with it and that 90% of that energy is going into the ocean? sitting around waiting for the 10% that goes into the land to do it's thing whilst twittering about how little is occuring merely highlights the issue of understanding that many folk appear to be blighted with?

 

 

 

As I've been saying for the past 8 months I feel that the changes to the Arctic have unleashed a much more potent impact on our climate system so folks bemoaning how little change they can see occuring will be given the rapid change they demand. Sadly some of this change involves the destabilisation of the carbon within the northern permafrosts and if the anoms for methane across the Arctic this past winter are anything to go by we shall be hearing a lot about them over the next few years?

Edited April 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

Many studies show the planet is cooling , so if Co2 does warm the planet its certainly not living up to its job!

 

But it does cause all this cold weather.  Have you not been watching and reading the news?

 

Care to enlighten us with regards to these studies by providing links?  Would be nice to read them.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think A.W. might mean studies by certain blog sites into their belief that the climate is cooling? 

 

As far as I am aware the planet is still warming?

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi ANYWEATHER.

You need to remember that even with the temperatures being a a degree or so warmer globally, that during winter it will still be very cold to our north and east. Even with a world 2 or 3C warmer, we could still get freezing temperatures and snow from a good Siberian easterly, but that our cold will generally be balanced by warmth elsewhere.

Lets look at December 2010 as an example.

As we remember, much of the month consisted of easterly and northerly winds for the British Isles, thanks for northerly blocking.

 

Sea level pressure anomaly

anyslp.gif

 

This northern blocking brought cold easterlies and northerlies for us, but also brought mild easterlies and southerlies for western Greenland and eastern Canada. This resulted in them having much larger positive temperature anomalies (+14C in a few spots!) than we had negative anomalies. This more than balanced out our cold!

 

Temperature anomaly

any.gif

 

Remember that for any northerly wind bringing cold air south, the air has to be replaced by air moving north somewhere else!

 

 

What studies show the planet is cooling by the way, because I haven't seen them?

Well just google "that the planet is cooling and you will see a wealth of info on that. Now ,everybody has been skirting around my post I made this morning. Yes we do get temperature anomalies, which is quite normal, but why is our planet not much ,much warmer than it is now, oceans release vast areas of latent heat, resulting in tropical storms/Hurricanes, cyclones etc. Why dont we see a way above normal in these type of storms.? At the moment the Pacific is cooler than normal, the Atlantic warmer, similar to to set-up in the 1950s. There was always a belief that Co2 stayed in the the atmosphere for about at least a century, new research shows its only in the atmosphere for about 10 to 15 years?  As I mentioned earlier, if Co2 was such a heat trapper why has it not done its job?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Well just google "that the planet is cooling and you will see a wealth of info on that. Now ,everybody has been skirting around my post I made this morning. Yes we do get temperature anomalies, which is quite normal, but why is our planet not much ,much warmer than it is now, oceans release vast areas of latent heat, resulting in tropical storms/Hurricanes, cyclones etc. Why dont we see a way above normal in these type of storms.? At the moment the Pacific is cooler than normal, the Atlantic warmer, similar to to set-up in the 1950s. There was always a belief that Co2 stayed in the the atmosphere for about at least a century, new research shows its only in the atmosphere for about 10 to 15 years?  As I mentioned earlier, if Co2 was such a heat trapper why has it not done its job?

 

Tried that, but not a single scientific paper came that showed we're currently cooling? Perhaps you can help me out!?

 

The planet is not much much warmer because CO2 doesn't re-radiate all the longwave energy, only some. But that small amount is enough to cause warming and result in other feedbacks that cause additional warming. Nobody believes that the planet should burn because we're gradually increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The Pacific is only cooler than normal in the north, the south Pacific is very mild, and overall, global SSTs were 9th highest on record in March http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/3

 

Could you show me the research that suggests CO2 only stays in the atmosphere for 15 years?

[UV-RAY]

I remember a peer reviewed paper by Dr Robert Essenhigh stating just that.

[ANYWEATHER]

Tried that, but not a single scientific paper came that showed we're currently cooling? Perhaps you can help me out!?

 

The planet is not much much warmer because CO2 doesn't re-radiate all the longwave energy, only some. But that small amount is enough to cause warming and result in other feedbacks that cause additional warming. Nobody believes that the planet should burn because we're gradually increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The Pacific is only cooler than normal in the north, the south Pacific is very mild, and overall, global SSTs were 9th highest on record in March http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/3

 

Could you show me the research that suggests CO2 only stays in the atmosphere for 15 years?

Ive read it somewhere on my travels, When I get 5 mins I will have a look for it...SSTs , but how long have these measurements of the ocean temps been recorded?, But,bftv, surely you have to acknowledge that Co2 the main driver of the so called manmade global warming has not happened, nearly two centuries of industry belching out this gas and we still record[ record lows] across the planet, [of course record highs as well]. Also im right in assuming that the seas around the uk are much colder than normal.December 2010, should not have happened if Co2 made global warming along with the likes of 62/63 Winter, im just perplexed, tbh because I see no answers. Of course putting Co2 aside, we have to take into the equation of cyclical phases of the planet, solar output etc. Was not the maunder minimum back in the 1740s a case of lower solar radiation, which I believe is happening now with our sun.  

[knocker]

I suspect this may be the source BFTV. No surprise here.

 

http://www.c3headlines.com/2009/09/the-liberal-attack-on-science-acorn-style-the-ipcc-fabrication-of-atmospheric-co2-residency-time.html

 

But perhaps they forgot this.

 

ndividual carbon dioxide molecules have a short life time of around 5 years in the atmosphere. However, when they leave the atmosphere, they're simply swapping places with carbon dioxide in the ocean. The final amount of extra CO2 that remains in the atmosphere stays there on a time scale of centuries.

 

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-residence-time.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.theparliament.com/latest-news/article/newsarticle/arctic-ocean-predicted-to-be-ice-free-by-2015/?#.UX6bPaLvsZ4

 

So the govt. are being given a date of 2015/16 for 'ice free' Arctic?

 

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/lifestyle/un-climate-chief-warns-of-urgency-as-co2/658104.html?

 

passing 400ppm earlier in the year than I imagined? I thought it'd be late Sept before we got close?

Edited April 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[UV-RAY]

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N31/EDIT.php Edited April 29, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Methuselah]

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N31/EDIT.php

That should be testable enough...Has the atmospheric CO₂-content flatlined, along with global temperatures, since 1998?

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi ANYWEATHER.

You need to remember that even with the temperatures being a a degree or so warmer globally, that during winter it will still be very cold to our north and east. Even with a world 2 or 3C warmer, we could still get freezing temperatures and snow from a good Siberian easterly, but that our cold will generally be balanced by warmth elsewhere.

Lets look at December 2010 as an example.

As we remember, much of the month consisted of easterly and northerly winds for the British Isles, thanks for northerly blocking.

 

Sea level pressure anomaly

anyslp.gif

 

This northern blocking brought cold easterlies and northerlies for us, but also brought mild easterlies and southerlies for western Greenland and eastern Canada. This resulted in them having much larger positive temperature anomalies (+14C in a few spots!) than we had negative anomalies. This more than balanced out our cold!

 

Temperature anomaly

any.gif

 

Remember that for any northerly wind bringing cold air south, the air has to be replaced by air moving north somewhere else!

 

 

What studies show the planet is cooling by the way, because I haven't seen them?

Yes true, BFTV, that Greenland had well above average temps during our cold spell of December 2010, but thats been the case in past history as one place gets below average temps, another area will get above average temps. Greenland had record warmth during the severe cold spell of 1962/63 back in the Uk, that always happens when there is buckling of jet streams, blocking etc. What I keep banging on about is the level of cold, 2 centuries of fossil fuel burning should have given us a runaway greenhouse effect if Co2 was the main driver, decades ago. Co2 is what so called warming is about ,well mostly, and as far as im concerned its pretty useless in trapping heat.

Edited April 29, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Gray-Wolf]

Why would you say that AnyWeather? That's rubbish and you must know it? We are just passing 400ppm, a level not experienced for 800,000yrs, We have been much higher than this and not experienced 'runaway warming so why would we now? 1,000ppm was quite 'normal' when our planet was ice free and we saw no runaway warming then did we?

 

Then we run into timescales for warming due to CO2. Why would you speak as though we should have seen instant impacts when past CO2 warmings take thousands of years to manfest their potential?

 

Are you sure you know anything about this subject AnyWeather?

 

As for global CO2 levels we have pushed them to the point to destabilise the northern permafrost. With the warming in the pipeline we will continue to see meltdown well after we have throttled back on our emmisions and look likely to see CO2 heading toward the old 'ice free levels' of CO2.

 

EDIT: though knockers introduced it on the other thread maybe you could do with reading , and digesting, this;

 

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/what-does-400-ppm-look-like/

 

" An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events"

 

".Now the planet is poised to reach the 1,000 ppm level in only 100 years if emissions trajectories remain at their present level."

 

It would appear that most folk do understand CO2?

Edited April 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[barrel1234]

Why would you say that AnyWeather? That's rubbish and you must know it? We are just passing 400ppm, a level not experienced for 800,000yrs, We have been much higher than this and not experienced 'runaway warming so why would we now? 1,000ppm was quite 'normal' when our planet was ice free and we saw no runaway warming then did we?

 

Then we run into timescales for warming due to CO2. Why would you speak as though we should have seen instant impacts when past CO2 warmings take thousands of years to manfest their potential?

 

Are you sure you know anything about this subject AnyWeather?

 

As for global CO2 levels we have pushed them to the point to destabilise the northern permafrost. With the warming in the pipeline we will continue to see meltdown well after we have throttled back on our emmisions and look likely to see CO2 heading toward the old 'ice free levels' of CO2.

 

EDIT: though knockers introduced it on the other thread maybe you could do with reading , and digesting, this;

 

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/what-does-400-ppm-look-like/

 

" An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events"

 

".Now the planet is poised to reach the 1,000 ppm level in only 100 years if emissions trajectories remain at their present level."

 

It would appear that most folk do understand CO2?

 

 CO2 is a trace gas. that means that there is not a lot of it in the atmosphere and its heat trapping capabilities from the increased concentration are almost negligible compared to water vapour.   Concentration has increased but concentrations are so low in its total proportion  in the atmosphere that all warming predictions based on CO2 are overblown and in my opinion bordering on nonsense.

 

 

 Just to add, If CO2 is 400ppm that means that the gas occupies only 0.04% of the atmosphere, I would say that this would surely have to put it way down my list on causes of possible warming.

 

 

 How this can be blamed on climate change is absolutely beyond me, things like the AMO and solar cycles would surely have a MASSIVE affect compared to a doubling of a trace gas of such low concentrations. 

Edited April 29, 2013 by barrel1234