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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

New thread here,

Will leave this one open for a few mins until I can see that no-one is still posting.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Hi All, just been flicking through tonights ECM and noticed something i cant explain, probably because im still learning .

on the image at 120 hrs there is a deep low at the tip of greenland and the slider low to the west of uk, then at 144 ( second image) the low has slipped down south, so wheres the low at the tip of greenland gone... no trace of it ... surely it cant just disappear in 24 hrs can it

http://images.meteoc...M1-120_esr3.GIF

http://images.meteoc...M1-144_emr7.GIF

ECM moving at 24 hr time frames is deceptive.

Here is a GIF with the time sequence shortened to 12 hrs using the 00z charts to give and idea of where the energy you mention disrupts to.

post-7292-0-53749700-1360098947_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Hi All, just been flicking through tonights ECM and noticed something i cant explain, probably because im still learning .

on the image at 120 hrs there is a deep low at the tip of greenland and the slider low to the west of uk, then at 144 ( second image) the low has slipped down south, so wheres the low at the tip of greenland gone... no trace of it ... surely it cant just disappear in 24 hrs can it

http://images.meteoc...M1-120_esr3.GIF

http://images.meteoc...M1-144_emr7.GIF

Maybe i need to rub my eyes and go to specsavers, but surely a 985mb low just doesnt vanish and get replaced with heights of sorts

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

ECM moving at 24 hr time frames is deceptive.

Here is a GIF with the time sequence shortened to 12 hrs using the 00z charts to give and idea of where the energy you mention disrupts to.

Thanks Lorenzo, im amazed how quickly the low gets killed off, im fairly new so havent seen a low get smashed so quick before....

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

First post in here, and a bit of a beginner's question, but here goes. Have been looking at all these cold charts and reading everybody's posts re. snow and easterly winds etc, yet daytime temperatures are set to remain 3 or 4 degrees above freezing quite widely across the UK throughout? Now I know that these forecasts are based on GFS output (I think), but should the ECM be the model that verifies what kind of daytime temperatures would we be looking to experience across the country? My model reading skills aren't high enough to interpret the ECM showings and equate this to ground temps smile.png

Thanks in advance to anybody who answers, and apologies if it is a stupid question....

Just quickly before I lock up. I suspect the ECM day time temps will be a little lower - but definitely will drop to around or below zero in any precip.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

First post in here, and a bit of a beginner's question, but here goes. Have been looking at all these cold charts and reading everybody's posts re. snow and easterly winds etc, yet daytime temperatures are set to remain 3 or 4 degrees above freezing quite widely across the UK throughout? Now I know that these forecasts are based on GFS output (I think), but should the ECM be the model that verifies what kind of daytime temperatures would we be looking to experience across the country? My model reading skills aren't high enough to interpret the ECM showings and equate this to ground temps smile.png

Thanks in advance to anybody who answers, and apologies if it is a stupid question....

12z ECM would probably be colder at the surface than 12z GFS early next week as the slider low sinks into France. ECM has a stronger east/northeasterly Mon-Tuesday wand lower 500mb geopotential heights (cold pooling) than GFS.

Think we need to see how the flow evolves once the slider low sinks SE before we can worry about temps. Greatest chance for snow looks to be towards the east when the slider comes down and afterwards - as the east will be closer to the coldest air.

Although there's a lot of support from the EPS for milder air to move in from the west mid-week next week, I think there's still chance that we may well see another trough disruption to the west similar to the one this weekend - as the models perhaps underesimate the strength of the cold blocking at the surface and the higher heights aloft to the NE.

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