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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

Where do we end up with the GFS? Some talk of backtracking but to me it's still no providing the same outcome as ECM

Is there support from any other models for what it's now showing?

Or is it the sole model showing this?

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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted

Some of the gfs ensembles are better than the ECM . Massive signal for northern blocking in deep fi 15 out of 20 have high pressure to the north of uk and easterly flow at end of run, some cobra runs in there.

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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted

This fish stuff has been funny but let's get back on topic now..... Am I the only one who has noticed that the gfs ensembles have flipped to prolonged cold.

More than a few runs now showing RJS's near record breaking cold.

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peterf Apprentice

peterf

Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham
Posted

I worry for John H he was the accelerant.that aside things are coming together now,but as ever more runs needed to see which way things will head.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

There are some crazy fi runs in there. Plenty of mouth watering charts in that suite. Pretty much caused by a huge WAA from the russian high. Russian megablocks, greenland highs all in there just for fun.

Must remain calm for now haha

Edited by Captain shortwave
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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

I like a joke as much as the next person, but when you've just spent 15 minutes after midnight clearing nearly a hundred off topic posts just to make the thread remotely readable your patience wears pretty thin.

Lets get back to the models, there wont be another warning.

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Sussex snowstorm Newbie

Sussex snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: East sussex
  • Location: East sussex
Posted

ECM staying strong for cold spell for the last 6 runs or so , also the gfs is slowly going inline with the ECM , all in all it's good , just hope and wait for the ukmo to get in line with ECM then things could get more interesting looks like the ukmo at 144 hours is pretty worrying but with the ens and the gefs ensembles slowly going towards cold spell then ukmo could and should move in line with the colder section :)

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

We're looking at a slider low to get things going but there's not much margin for error and I don't have confidence in the models accurately predicting where exactly that low is going to go at the range we're talking about. So confidence beyond day 5 or 6 is low at the moment at least to me.

Maybe ensembles not much use too, I think the higher resolution of the OP runs will be important in deciding what's going to happen at around +96 or less.

So I'm not getting at all excited yet.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Id have to agree with the margin of error regarding any slider but thats if it arrives so slightly academic i guess.The outlook will keep most interested whatever the eventual outcome

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted

So yet again the drama continues into the 00'Z & beyond.

IMO we have seen a slight correction with the pattern backing west from the GFS even if slight its a baby step in the right direction & for what i believe correct pattern throwing things forward i expect the GFS to keep backing west & the cold weather to take hold from the e~ne from around D6 with a deep prolonged cold from D8 onwards.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Just caught up with the 18z and the GFS doesn't half make me laugh with its step by step climb down. Bit by bit it inches west in a way that makes it almost sentient.......hoping no-one notices.

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted

Just caught up with the 18z and the GFS doesn't half make me laugh with its step by step climb down. Bit by bit it inches west in a way that makes it almost sentient.......hoping no-one notices.

Remember what we was talking about a week back CC?

I feel that we are not that far off the truth here mate!

Maybe me and yourself should join forces with the likes of BFTP & RJS ect?

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Looks like its not just me what stays up till silly oclock then?Think we need help guys and i guess that will come in spring when normal sleep will be resumed!!!!!!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Looks like its not just me what stays up till silly oclock then?Think we need help guys and i guess that will come in spring when normal sleep will be resumed!!!!!!

This winter has knackered me lol

Remember what we was talking about a week back CC?

I feel that we are not that far off the truth here mate!

Maybe me and yourself should join forces with the likes of BFTP & RJS ect?

Well funny you say that. Someone on FB messaged me the other day to say how impressed they were with my calls for this winter.

Saying this, the weather can make fools of us all and I will admit I expected a Greenland high this month. Whether we still get one remains to be seen!

A lot of kudos also has to go to Chiono (Ed) as he has been instrumental with his work on the stratosphere. Really, hats off to him.

Edited by CreweCold
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Mark Griffin Explorer

Mark Griffin

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.. Heavy snow.
  • Location: Hoyland, Barnsley
Posted

Well the last few months reading this page has really taught me so much. I still can't read the models for toffee but I have more of an understanding about how it all works. I know this will be deleted but just wanted to show my appreciation to all involved.

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london-snow Aficionado

london-snow

Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
Posted

This winter has knackered me lol

Well funny you say that. Someone on FB messaged me the other day to say how impressed they were with my calls for this winter.

Saying this, the weather can make fools of us all and I will admit I expected a Greenland high this month. Whether we still get one remains to be seen!

A lot of kudos also has to go to Chiono (Ed) as he has been instrumental with his work on the stratosphere. Really, hats off to him.

You don't remember my prediction a week ago where you agreed with me & we was both singing from the same sheet?

The song was ' Let it snow ' LOL..

In being honest though todays future output is going to be pretty big & i for one remain convinced that we will see a prolonged cold spell happen from D8 onwards.

Good luck for those staying up for the 00'z i do hope to see a confident forum in the morning.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

subtle changes at 120hrs bring things slightly further west along with better ridging to the north east.looks good so far

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

subtle changes at 120hrs bring things slightly further west along with better ridging to the north east.looks good so far

Yes more subtle improvement and UKMO is very similar but with the pattern that bit further West again.

UN120-21.GIF?04-05

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Here are UKMO and GFS at 144, still further Westward correction through today would be nice.

UN144-21.GIF?04-05gfsnh-0-144.png

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