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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

hmm problem at 150 hrs,low does not disrupt and go south on the oz!!

Edited by swfc
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Jupiters Winter Newbie

Jupiters Winter

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Icy
  • Location: Birmingham 122M ASL
Posted (edited)

hmm problem at 150 hrs,low does not disrupt and go south on the oz!!

Big differences between this and the previous GFS run. Not to worry about I suppose now that the models have begun to trend towards the ECM. And STEVE was correct to say a day ago. GFS 8-10 runs will do what it has done so far. Trend towards the ECM. Even though after T144 it loses the heights on this run.

Edit; spoke to soon, It is a late horse run. Gets there at the end and probably about to deliver a eye candy fi.

Edited by Jupiters Winter
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Big differences between this and the previous GFS run. Not to worry about I suppose now that the models have begun to trend towards the ECM. And STEVE was correct to say a day ago. GFS 8-10 runs will do what it has done so far. Trend towards the ECM. Even though after T144 it loses the heights on this run.

Edit; spoke to soon, It is a late horse run. Gets there at the end and probably about to deliver a eye candy fi.

indeed at day 10 it pulls something out of the bag?
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

The GEM is also a massive improvement which is good/ further west

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

The GEM is also a massive improvement which is good.

True but goes pear shaped pretty quick. NOGAPS has the pattern too far East this morning.

I think best to take guidance from ECM and UKMO from here along with ensemble trends from GFS and ECM.

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

True but goes pear shaped pretty quick. NOGAPS has the pattern too far East this morning.

I think best to take guidance from ECM and UKMO from here along with ensemble trends from GFS and ECM.

Yh but at least the trend with the minors like the Gem are on board until a big low comes and and pushes the block out of the way...mmmm. Still wants to go for another mid Atlantic ridge thereafter. Edited by Dave Kightley
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

A clear split developing on GFS ensembles around day 6 which is where we get the slider so basically more support for us to stay on the cold side.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=230&ext=1&y=45&run=0&runpara=0

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

A clear split developing on GFS ensembles around day 6 which is where we get the slider so basically more support for us to stay on the cold side.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=230&ext=1&y=45&run=0&runpara=0

Can't see it being modelled correct for a few days yet. Gem after checking supports the GFS at the moment With the less cold uppers. We will see
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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted

My first post of the winter as I'm overseas (33C here!).

Just thought I'd drop in to say it's looking very interesting indeed. I think this looks like one of those classic cases of the models slowly adapting to the rebuilding high pressure to north-east. A battleground scenario is being set up, and we (or rather you) could be in for a very cold and potentially snowy, February by the looks of the model trends.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

My first post of the winter as I'm overseas (33C here!).

Just thought I'd drop in to say it's looking very interesting indeed. I think this looks like one of those classic cases of the models slowly adapting to the rebuilding high pressure to north-east. A battleground scenario is being set up, and we (or rather you) could be in for a very cold and potentially snowy, February by the looks of the model trends.

hi wib,where are you?
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

grow up or stop drinking!

after lastnights absolutely rib hurting laugh i wake still giggling like a little child its was absolutely a true laugh and had really brightened up this thread just goes to show we can all have a sense of humor and it was brillant.

anyway back to the models and this morning has really got me intrested with things rolling forward for a cold spell a little more ukmo gfs have both shifted towards the ecm i now await the ecm im really enjoying the models right now and that it would seem those including the uk met might well be on the money for febuary being below perhaps 2 to 4 c below come next week.

and thats without an intresting week coming.

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

when u think u could not get a even better ecm for cold and at t144 this pops out looks lush to me.

ECM1-144.GIF?04-12

Edited by model rollercoaster
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

when u think u could not get a even better ecm for cold and at t144 this pops out looks lush to me.

ECM1-144.GIF?04-12

its happening im of the fence now and its classic case of week of northerlies then a reload blinding up to t144.

omg 168 ECM0-168.GIF?04-12

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

t192 ecm could end up cold and blocked but hey its winter nice and there be lying snow for some.

and id of though the low leaving the eastern seaboard is like to track se to re enforce heights and drag easterly flow in futher could be nice t192 or cold settled t192 not bothered its cold.

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

One slight issue is the limited pool of cold uppers. This has been a consistent theme for some time.

Illustrated by this ECM chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Cold yes, but if you look east it's not gonna last. GFS has some decent Synoptics but tbh has even less cold air than ECM. I just wonder if we're heading into a Feb 2005 set up.

Jason

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

One slight issue is the limited pool of cold uppers. This has been a consistent theme for some time.

Illustrated by this ECM chart.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Cold yes, but if you look east it's not gonna last. GFS has some decent Synoptics but tbh has even less cold air than ECM. I just wonder if we're heading into a Feb 2005 set up.

Jason

disagree -12 uppers waiting out in the end. -8 uppers over us by 168h. Great run Edited by Dave Kightley
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