scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->

[Cheggers]

Well hopefully I will still have a wee bit at 400ft.

I can reveal the Met office new local weather forecaster. I am told it is extremely reliable:

And who said £300 million was a waste of money.

[Snooz]

Looks like the GFS is starting to take baby steps towards the rest again, but IIRC then last time it did that the others decided to take a walk the other way to meet it?

as if on cue IB has reappeared in the MT and is (successfully) winding people up again, seconds out round... (lost count!)

oh a report, and that big blob over Abdn/shire is.... RAIN, tippping it down currently... so could someone get up there and blow the mild sector away, I'm out for the evening and expect it gone on my return or else..

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like the GFS is starting to take baby steps towards the rest again, but IIRC then last time it did that the others decided to take a walk the other way to meet it?

as if on cue IB has reappeared in the MT and is (successfully) winding people up again, seconds out round... (lost count!)

oh a report, and that big blob over Abdn/shire is.... RAIN, tippping it down currently... so could someone get up there and blow the mild sector away, I'm out for the evening and expect it gone on my return or else..

We can just about arrange that:

[Northernlights]

Rain showers and a fresh north wind here.Currently 3.8c. Hills still very white round the Firth

Photo of shower coming from the north on a north wind just before dusk.

Still a drift lying at the fenceside.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Northernlights

[Highland Snow]

Well hopefully I will still have a wee bit at 400ft.

I can reveal the Met office new local weather forecaster. I am told it is extremely reliable:

Yep definitely more chance of verifying than any of the Models going on the evidence so far this Winter.

[BurntFishTrousers]

For a northerly component, it's remarkably mild oot considering it's 6C and the wind chill isnae like yesterday.

[woodside]

This must have been quite a sight.

http://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/212804-man-ran-back-into-home-before-45ft-wave-destroyed-lighthouse-wall/

I bet he hasn't run that fast for a while!

[BurntFishTrousers]

Jeez, more here: http://fair-isle.blogspot.co.uk/

[jellybaby1969]

Left Irine today for a jaunt to the ayrshire hills.... Raining in Irvine at 0930 and contiued raining thru Kilmarnock. Headed onto the A76 and got a bit sleety,...total whitout conditions from Mauchline thru to Cumnock (traffic heading up from Dumfires and Galloway cars were thick with snow) Just shows a bit further inland and some elevation makes things totaly different !! A pleasent day off !!

[Norrance]

For a northerly component, it's remarkably mild oot considering it's 6C and the wind chill isnae like yesterday.

I was thinking just that. Even when the real northerly comes in overnight the forecasts don't really go for cold with max temps of around 3/4c in the most prone areas. Looking at the fax charts I would have thought it would be colder with more precipitation. The isobars are quite tight and coming from quite a high latitude.

Anyway I am working in Aberdeenshire on thurs so hope to see a bit of snow. Going from westhill to kemnay then across to Ellon before coming home via Aberdeen.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Norrance

[Snowlover2]

This must have been quite a sight.

http://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/212804-man-ran-back-into-home-before-45ft-wave-destroyed-lighthouse-wall/

I bet he hasn't run that fast for a while!

Sounds like aliens are trying to communicate with him lol

[Buriedundersnow]

nice ECM tonight looks like it could be a good snowy weekend.

would prefer to see those LP's toward the end of the run heading southeast but that part of the run can always change in the next day or two.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Some brilliant pix at Fair isle: http://fair-isle.blogspot.co.uk/

Rocks thrown down the road.

[Norrance]

Some brilliant pix at Fair isle: http://fair-isle.blogspot.co.uk/

I read that the highest wave reached 72 feet ( was it off lewis?)

The pictures of the butt of Lewis lighthouse certainly made me reflect. Both my great grandfathers on my fathers side drowned within a couple of miles of there in separate storms. One aged 32 before my grandmother was born and the other aged 28 when my grandfather was 4. It was a dangerous life being a fisherman back then!

Meanwhile partly cloudy here and mild ish at 5.1c.

[jon_d1983]

Wind had dropped right down and Temps gone up!! Wheres it gone?

[Richard Taylor]

I usually take the BBC weather (really the MetO of course) with a pinch of salt, but I must say tomorrow's northerly has that 'underwhelming' feel to it. Cut off after Wed, higher temps than you would expect, & a northerly with very little actual snowy activity...eastern England look more in the firing line than NE Scotland, if you believe the BBC forecast.

Hopefully the actualitie will be a bit different - the ABZ terminal forecast calls for heavy snow showers.

Of interest though was Fri, with a front making progress E, then stalling, then...fizzling away. Looks like the cold block may have some resistance to it, IF what the BBC forecast shows is correct.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Richard Taylor

[Northernlights]

Ferocious gusts of wind about 7.00pm this evening, tried to put car in garage but wind was so strong couldn"t open door eventually got young Mr. Northern lights to hold it to let me in. Then about 7.30 pm we lost power. It has since come on again. And the wind has moderated occasionaly. Currently 3.3c . Freezer and shower surge protecters both cut out power.

[edo]

LS in answer to your query earlier today yes that is where the information comes from

I prefer your information and your elephants

[thebigyin]

odd day. Cold frosty start, then some funny sky colours and cloud rolled in, then light snow and a nice cold cover-which last all of about a half hour. Then wet snow, then rain then dry. Then milder temps up to 6C I think. Then showers this afternoon later on. Now fresh north wind and temperatures falling away again with showers on and off. Hopefully back to the wintry mix by tomorrow it seems, though as others have said forecast is not much to get really excited about. It is a northerly though so will take it!

Edited February 5, 2013 by thebigyin

[lorenzo]

Missed the Beeb forecast, Fax still looking good for the direct hit Northerly, sounds like you are having a helluva couple of days NL what with midnight calving and powercuts. Busy times !

Spotted this on the Sat Rep from earlier today, may be of interest. CAD, not one have seen before, so also unsure the impacts this may have to things, still it's new so thought would share.

Cold Air Damming. The phenomenon in which a low-level cold air mass is trapped topographically. Often, this cold air is entrenched on the east side of mountainous terrain. Cold Air Damming often implies that the trapped cold air mass is influencing the dynamics of the overlying air mass, e.g. in an overrunning scenario. Effects on the weather may include cold temperatures, freezing precipitation, and extensive cloud cover

Thickness chart for tomorrow am some cold, cold air around in the morning..

[LomondSnowstorm]

I usually take the BBC weather (really the MetO of course) with a pinch of salt, but I must say tomorrow's northerly has that 'underwhelming' feel to it. Cut off after Wed, higher temps than you would expect, & a northerly with very little actual snowy activity...eastern England look more in the firing line than NE Scotland, if you believe the BBC forecast.

Hopefully the actualitie will be a bit different - the ABZ terminal forecast calls for heavy snow showers.

Of interest though was Fri, with a front making progress E, then stalling, then...fizzling away. Looks like the cold block may have some resistance to it, IF what the BBC forecast shows is correct.

I'm going to do a wee summary on it soon but it does appear as though some of the bite of the northerly has gradually been sacrificed, hopefully for better things down the line, but still going to be quite a good one for favoured areas if not quite a raging -10/-12C type affair. I'm going to apologise in advance to Aberdonians and those in the Gaeltachd for at any point getting swept up in any future rampings of continental easterlies, they're pretty far from the holy grail for many although if the upper cold pool is right and the lows are far enough north they can still be pretty effective for the majority. Anyway, just to make up for the potential future misery of hearing about how wonderful North Sea convection is here's a FAX chart we can all enjoy:

Edited February 5, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Ravelin]

Currently blowy and left trouser leging with rain outside, most unpleasant for the dogs final trip to the garden tonight. BBC website suggests it should turn more wintry overnight...we'll see. Going to take a lot for snow to settle now ground is sodden.

[Snooz]

Glad to see those charts LSS, the consequences were to be dire.. the latest NAE suggests also that after midnight may well be the tide turner

NL looks like you are right in the firing line, so stay safe and I hope you have no calfies to deal with tonight/tomorrow

I still have faith in the N'ly evolution.. OK I've got the incense burning and am chanting to Ullr too .. I look forward to the summary though am glad you apologised in advance LSS cos I think I know what's coming

Saw that CAD thing posted earlier Lorenzo, but the descriptions go right over my head.. looks impressive though

Edited February 5, 2013 by Snooz

[Hairy Celt]

Plenty of heavy wet showers toady, picked up in the afternoon. And the soddim wind is back on too, as NL said a bit ago, the car doors were behaving like reluctant lovers... A mental hail shower just now hails the return of colder air. More blasctic staptic atapticsticity demain methinks.

I need my pills...

[Polarlow]

Wow.... Winds have really picked up here in Dundee... Is that the Cold Northely front passing over ?