scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 05/02/13 08 -------->

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm surprised no one's picked up on this yet:

Looks to be not exactly the strongest looking front in the world and there do look to be hints of marginality at points but the upper profile looks good so providing we can get a frost in overnight we could well be in business:

Slight warm sector overhead might turn the residual stuff left in the east back to rain at low levels but colder air will be building in behind so very icy and/or snowy underfoot for Friday morning:

NMM looks similar, with sleet or snow for the vast majority away from western and towards the end of the night eastern coastal fringes. I think potential for an inch or two realistically but potential for upgrades, downgrades, eastgrades, westgrades, retrogrades and upsidedownegrades still.

In other news, we have about the 10th undercut attempt this winter. Most have succeeded at least partially though never quite to the extent of bringing in deep cold and on the basis of the 00Zs this looks to be similar, with some kind of snow event somewhere in the British Isles on Sunday into Monday, a possible easterly from Monday into Tuesday and probably remaining generally cold, if not necessarily spectacularly so (very hard to pin down the 6-10 day range at present) after that:

What we are beginning to see though developing for mid month is an increasingly emphatic signal for heights to retrogress to Greenland. Given at this range most ensembles are pretty incoherent and we tend to end up with a kind of slack westerlyish flow which tells us very little about what's actually likely to happen, the 6Z ensembles are staggeringly impressive given the shorter term uncertainties:

even through to the very end of the run:

Looking northeast to the relative strengthening of the Siberian vortex and northwest to the weakening of the Canadian vortex, it does look like down the line we might not only have the synoptics but also the deep cold pool for a proper northeasterly blast by the middle of the month, and that's quite an exciting prospect to say the least.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'm surprised no one's picked up on this...

I was going to post everything you've just posted, but you beat me too it.

[Snooz]

I'm surprised no one's picked up on this yet:

\o/ \o/ - I did, I did!!

don't trust myself tho' & thought you were gonna post about it last night TBH

also didn't post the pretty charts - hangs head in shame every OT post needs a chart Snooz!!

Shorter term, I think this Thursday could well be interesting for the kilts - while the forecasters on BBC totally glossed over the front, coming from the West, on last nights report, I think they did so until they knew how much cold this northerly would bring, as they knew it to be a weaker affair.. now I'm no expert but I think that's a big chunk of cold sitting up there currently with the forecast for it to be dragged down overnight (not necessarily snow.. just cold!)

[LomondSnowstorm]

\o/ \o/ - I did, I did!!

don't trust myself tho' & thought you were gonna post about it last night TBH

also didn't post the pretty charts - hangs head in shame every OT post needs a chart Snooz!!

Sorry about that, maybe if you'd hand drawn the map I would've remembered

[DR(S)NO]

Sorry about that, maybe if you'd hand drawn the map I would've remembered

Love reading this thread!

[Buriedundersnow]

a question for LSS.

what is your take on how solar activity levels affect our weather or not as it is something i have been keeping my eyes on the last few years.

winter 09/10 we had really low levels of solar activity and we had a really good winter.

winter 10/11 solar activity was still at pretty low levels and we had that cold spell end of november and through december.

winter 11/12 solar activity fired up in november and didnt really subside till toward end of january beginning of february and the cold didnt move into the uk till february

winter 12/13 even though this winter is still ongoing and we are still to see if we get a protracted cold spell before the winter is over but note that just now solar activity levels have dropped right off now but during the winter till now we have had on and off cold spells but nothing really too harsh or of any length and this winter solar activity levels have been fluctuating all winter just like the cold has.

there might be nothing in it but i think it is wierd how our winters over the past four years have been so in line with how solar activity has been during these periods and could be a link for us to look at in the future to tell how likely we are to recieve lengthy or protracted cold spells in the future.

[LomondSnowstorm]

a question for LSS.

what is your take on how solar activity levels affect our weather or not as it is something i have been keeping my eyes on the last few years.

winter 09/10 we had really low levels of solar activity and we had a really good winter.

winter 10/11 solar activity was still at pretty low levels and we had that cold spell end of november and through december.

winter 11/12 solar activity fired up in november and didnt really subside till toward end of january beginning of february and the cold didnt move into the uk till february

winter 12/13 even though this winter is still ongoing and we are still to see if we get a protracted cold spell before the winter is over but note that just now solar activity levels have dropped right off now but during the winter till now we have had on and off cold spells but nothing really too harsh or of any length and this winter solar activity levels have been fluctuating all winter just like the cold has.

there might be nothing in it but i think it is wierd how our winters over the past four years have been so in line with how solar activity has been during these periods and could be a link for us to look at in the future to tell how likely we are to recieve lengthy or protracted cold spells in the future.

There's definitely something in it, and there's been a whole host of research papers on solar activity as a forcing both on global temperatures but also with respect to mid latitude winters. A lot of the mechanisms described are related to the stratospheric impact and in particular ozone levels and the QBO phase e.g.:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0021916988900682

It's certainly not a linear or statistically simple relationship (nothing ever is in this field!) but most of the research seems to suggest that, at least with an east based QBO as we have this winter, the signal for high latitude blocking in Northern Hemispheric winter patterns increases during minima phases, and of course low cycles will generally see more blocking (e.g. Maunder, Dalton minima). Perhaps there's something in the shorter term variability too, Stewart seemed to suggest that it was a spike in solar activity which caused a Spanish ridge to build in mid December which scuppered the cold spell then.

[Buriedundersnow]

There's definitely something in it, and there's been a whole host of research papers on solar activity as a forcing both on global temperatures but also with respect to mid latitude winters. A lot of the mechanisms described are related to the stratospheric impact and in particular ozone levels and the QBO phase e.g.:

http://www.sciencedi...021916988900682

It's certainly not a linear or statistically simple relationship (nothing ever is in this field!) but most of the research seems to suggest that, at least with an east based QBO as we have this winter, the signal for high latitude blocking in Northern Hemispheric winter patterns increases during minima phases, and of course low cycles will generally see more blocking (e.g. Maunder, Dalton minima). Perhaps there's something in the shorter term variability too, Stewart seemed to suggest that it was a spike in solar activity which caused a Spanish ridge to build in mid December which scuppered the cold spell then.

yeah i noticed that about december but that is really one that would be hard to prove it was the increase in solar activity alone that scuppered it as there were theories aswell that the onset of the SSW might have done the december cold spell aswell as i think i read somone had said the warming started over europe area and that might have been a cause in pushing the siberian block way back east.

i really think now we have gone through solar max and now solar activity is going to slide which i think might happen in a big way this year and give us a lengthy solar minima this time round that we might get some really stonking winters in the next say 5 or 6 years.

see u mentioned maunder, dalton minima and i know that japanese scientists seem to think we could be entering a new one just now with not only the reduction in sunspots but the reduction of the potency of the fields around these spots and the energy they can produce and other people around the world have started to come round to the thinking that this might be a real possibility and that is something i would really like to see come into effect as that could line up a period of hundreds of years with really harsh and snowy winters which would really be dreamland

[Northernlights]

There's definitely something in it, and there's been a whole host of research papers on solar activity as a forcing both on global temperatures but also with respect to mid latitude winters. A lot of the mechanisms described are related to the stratospheric impact and in particular ozone levels and the QBO phase e.g.:

http://www.sciencedi...021916988900682

It's certainly not a linear or statistically simple relationship (nothing ever is in this field!) but most of the research seems to suggest that, at least with an east based QBO as we have this winter, the signal for high latitude blocking in Northern Hemispheric winter patterns increases during minima phases, and of course low cycles will generally see more blocking (e.g. Maunder, Dalton minima). Perhaps there's something in the shorter term variability too, Stewart seemed to suggest that it was a spike in solar activity which caused a Spanish ridge to build in mid December which scuppered the cold spell then.

On a simpler level I noticed the connection a few years ago between the falling number of Auroras witnessed from here since 2007 and increasingly colder winters . My daughter then sent me a link to a paper showing the lack of sunspot activity seemed to be related to a cooling effect on NW European winters and yes there have not been a lot of Auroras in recent weeks.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Northernlights

[November13]

I saw the Thursday snow potential on Monday but BBC seemed to be ignoring this.

[Northernlights]

On a simpler level I noticed the connection a few years ago between the falling number of Auroras witnessed from here since 2007 and increasingly colder winters . My daughter then sent me a link to a paper showing the lack of sunspot activity seemed to be related to a cooling effect on NW European winters and yes there have not been a lot of Auroras recent weeks.

Just to add this winter seems to have been fairly cool here apart from the first week of January.Bulb emergence seems to very slow(saturated cold soils?) and non existant grass growth(wintering sheep being fed every day) very much like winters of 30 to 40 years ago. I think I read somewhere that the Lecht ski centre has had its best December ever and a lot of skiing was done before Christmas when New Year is normally the starting date for the season.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I saw the Thursday snow potential on Monday but BBC seemed to be ignoring this.

Very true, it doesn't look hugely disruptive as it will be mostly light but it could still give a covering quite widely.

[festivalking]

right I am over the border and can now do some weather reports. Well Its dark and I am on a train. May be I will wait till the morning. . .

[Buriedundersnow]

liking the UKMO 12z possible hint at retrogression of hieghts from scandi to greenland

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just had me a wee very light flurry o snaw.

2.3 C.

[November13]

Thursday looks like a weakening front but potential for 3cm and at least this time it will not melt in 4 hours!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Storm force - Scotland experiences the highest seas in the world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-21339819

(it's not about politics, so should be reliable).

[Snooz]

I must have really lost it today!! but when I saw the MetO warning for Thursday (whole of UK) : http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

I got a very clear image, and literally burst out laughing, though nothing to do with the actual weather, more reminiscent of MT fishiness perhaps?.. hubby says it's time I stopped speaking to you lot, he thought weather was harmless but is now worried about my health....

note: I think the MT had something to do with it as Trolls are involved

Before and After:

...

sorry LSS: I can't use paint like wot you can, and I don't have PhotoShop on this PC so am trying to learn GIMP.. and lastly my sincere apologies to everyone I masked out!

now I'll get mi coat

[Hairy Celt]

Thanks for all the potty, well-informed and well written posts today - Snooz & LSS especially have helped me to get back some lost sanity!

Heavy blustery snow & hail showers on the north coast today, nice sunny interludes too. The north-facing beaches look mad with hundreds of square metres of foam, big breakers, etc. No pics, been too busy...

[Buriedundersnow]

its been less than 10 minutes but scotland already look better than they were before the wee ginger man took over

[cscrim]

signal is clear though, will still be just one up front no matter how poor the oposition. shame really.

nippy out there the night.

[Buriedundersnow]

signal is clear though, will still be just one up front no matter how poor the oposition. shame really.

nippy out there the night.

i think he will go with two up front in future games tonight is just the fact no new manager wants to lose his first match

[Buriedundersnow]

yyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssss well done mulgrew.

[Snooz]

Thanks for all the potty, well-informed and well written posts today - Snooz & LSS especially have helped me to get back some lost sanity!

Heavy blustery snow & hail showers on the north coast today, nice sunny interludes too. The north-facing beaches look mad with hundreds of square metres of foam, big breakers, etc. No pics, been too busy...

was thinking about you Hairy, was it completely freezing where you were working,up north & outside!?! - if so dip under those flairboards and join the footie dream,,,Scotland doing well, so far, tonight - it is a lot like getting snow tomorrow a dream that makes for a good conversation along the way

[cscrim]

i find this winter so far and Scotland team go well together. so much promise, good in very small patches but ultimately fail to deliver.