Flash contest -- be a model -- predict Sunday-Monday (enter by Friday 12z)

[Roger J Smith]

I thought this might be interesting and fun (probably wrong on both counts) ...

Model confusion this morning places many outcomes "on the table" for Sunday and Monday (10-11 Feb) especially for southeast England. This contest will cover the regions of Midlands, south central and southeast England and only events between 00h Sunday and 2359h Monday (Sunday and Monday on the calendar, basically) will count towards verification.

The contest requires three answers and each will be scored as indicated.

1. Predict to the nearest cm the highest amount of lying snow reported by any Net-weather member or UK Metoffice public report in that region. Your score will be 30 minus one point for every half cm error. A maximum of 30 cm is placed on the contest (any prediction or actual amount >50 cm reduces to 50 cm). Example of scoring, you predict 7.5 cm, a report of 11.0 cm is made. The error is 3.5 cm or 7 points and you score 23. To clarify, this snowfall must occur in England or Wales and south of the borders of Lancs, Yorks. Decision on qualifying snowfall reports at judge's discretion.

2. Predict to the nearest 0.1 C deg the temperature at 06z at Heathrow on Monday 11th. This is worth 35 points and you lose one point for every 0.1 error. Example of scoring, you predict -2.0, the actual is reported as -3.3, the difference is 13 scoring points and you get 27/40.

3. Predict to the nearest 0.1 C deg the temperature at 12z at B'ham Coleshill on Monday 11th. Same as above for scoring.

__________________________________

Just post your three predictions like this:

(my contest entry also)

15.0 ... --2.7 ... --1.5

Deadline for entries will be Friday noon (12z) with penalties to apply after that, five points per hour which means you can't score anything with an entry made by 08z Saturday.

First prize will be the right to boast, brag and otherwise annoy everyone for a week until we all forget it happened.

Just for further fun, I will post Thursday 12z model run "forecasts" of all these parameters to test out the various models. Any help on snowfall reporting welcome, I can easily verify the temperature questions.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[johnholmes]

Members depths and official depths in the same street would be similar to some folks comments about the models-very variable at best!

[AWD]

3.8 -1.1 0.1

[Roger J Smith]

Well it's meant to be fun but we could have a brief group discussion about candidate snowfall amounts to assess reliability, I am pretty sure if it does snow, there will be a pretty good consensus about how much fell where. We could say Net-weather members with at least 500 posts and joined before 1-1-2011 to ensure some sort of reliability perhaps. By the way I just changed the max snowfall forecast to 50 cm to increase the tension. It was 30 cm in the original post and then I was reading speculation elsewhere about 12 to 18 inches which is 30-45 cm. Just so we have no recriminations, let's say that the forecast region ends at the borders of Lancs and Yorks and otherwise includes all of southern England and Wales for the snowfall (I don't think that will change the outcome).

Also, an implied rule detail (for 1) is that maximum reported depth of level (not drifted) snow at any point in the time frame counts, not the snow depth at end of Monday necessarily. And it is snow depth not snowfall.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

SE England no1? if so, 8.5cms,

no2, -0.8C

no3, 3.3C

[Roger J Smith]

Edit or repost if you wish, up until deadline, I won't be making a table of entries until then so it won't confuse me because I do those backwards from most recent posts to save work in the CET thread.

Yes, the snow depth will be anywhere in the UK south of the Lancs and Yorks borders. That way, if there isn't much snow in the south but the northeast catches a heavy streamer, it won't affect the concept of this contest.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Bobd29]

22...-2.8...1.3

[mike Meehan]

0 - +0.8 - +2.4

[Kiwi]

18cm in the RG26 postcode area ....do I get extra points?

-0.4c (but feeling much colder is a strong easterly)

-1.2c

....and to celebrate my win I'll build an igloo in my garden and live in it until the snows melt in April!

[Paul Sherman]

Yes i see a problem with the Snow Depths Roger.

Remember Kent is in the SE And Kentimetres far outweigh normal snow measurements.

Can anyone clarify what the conversion is from Kentimetres to Centimetres ??

[Coast]

Can anyone clarify what the conversion is from Kentimetres to Centimetres ??

Normally x10, but on slow days before a projected event it can be up to x100

[LomondSnowstorm]

12cm... -0.9C...-3.1C

[Catacol]

15cm

-1.5 degrees

+1.8 degrees

Edited February 5, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Suburban Streamer]

13cm

-2.9

-0.2

[chicken soup]

Well it's meant to be fun but we could have a brief group discussion about candidate snowfall amounts to assess reliability, I am pretty sure if it does snow, there will be a pretty good consensus about how much fell where. We could say Net-weather members with at least 500 posts and joined before 1-1-2011 to ensure some sort of reliability perhaps. By the way I just changed the max snowfall forecast to 50 cm to increase the tension. It was 30 cm in the original post and then I was reading speculation elsewhere about 12 to 18 inches which is 30-45 cm. Just so we have no recriminations, let's say that the forecast region ends at the borders of Lancs and Yorks and otherwise includes all of southern England and Wales for the snowfall (I don't think that will change the outcome).

Also, an implied rule detail (for 1) is that maximum reported depth of level (not drifted) snow at any point in the time frame counts, not the snow depth at end of Monday necessarily. And it is snow depth not snowfall.

I take it your ruling any snow out the for lancs and yorks then. Edited February 5, 2013 by chicken soup

[Roger J Smith]

No, to be clear, I expect 10-20 cm snowfalls in parts of northeast England out of this set-up. My entry now revised to

23.0 cm, --1.8 C and --0.7 C

That 23.0 cm to be close to Northolt so possibly a UK met office confirmation of a NW report sort of thing.

Promise we won't accept any disputed snowfall measurements that are wildly out of sync with regional reports. I have a cousin in Horley who could show up with her own ruler.

[Roger J Smith]

The 06z temp at London Heathrow was 4.3 C, colder air has since arrived there. Temps generally 1-2 C in the contest zone (milder in south coast and southwest regions).

Will post the contest question 06z Monday temp at London Heathrow, the 12z temp at B'ham and any qualifying snowfall reports and declare a winner on Tuesday.

So far have seen a few scattered reports of 2-4 cm lying snow in west Midlands, but early days yet with a day to go.

Edited February 10, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

The greatest snow depth I could confirm was 4 cm at Bedford.

The 06z temp at Heathrow was 0.9 C

The 12z temp at B'ham Coleshill was 0.7 C

Based on the rules, the top three scores are:

AWD ... 74

mike Meehan ... 74

Gimmemoresnow ... 48

Congrats to AWD and mike Meehan for sharing the win ... and thanks for taking part.

(any increase in verifiable snowfall would favour AWD, but I didn't see any reports from NW members and got the 4 cm from an hourly report from the met station Bedford A).

In general it was a bit milder than most of us predicted, lack of clear skies may account for that.

[TonyH]

High Wycombe officially had 13cm on Monday.