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Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

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welshwizard Apprentice

welshwizard

Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
Posted

yes looking out from back of house the bwlch is white and starting to get thicker. just drove up from ogmore vale and temp was plus 5 in car and got out side house and was 2.5 if the temp drops could give a covering. I would say the sticking line is 400m asl.

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

I wonder if we getting the classic stalled front just getting across the border and staying across Wales for 24hrs? the fax just out is suggesting this can happen can Wales steal most of the snow!and South West uk. PPVK89.gif?31415

Edited by keithlucky
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

We can dream Keith, 30 years of hurt!

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

FAX Trends

post-213-0-49310200-1360190361_thumb.gif

post-213-0-92554700-1360267557_thumb.gif

I wonder if we getting the classic stalled front just getting across the border and staying across Wales for 24hrs? the fax just out is suggesting this can happen can Wales steal most of the snow!and South West uk. PPVK89.gif?31415

I was hoping for a westward correction and there has been one tonight. The early severe weather warnings are a good sign but the charts on the MEto website, don't look snowy to me,

A massive range of scenarios remain on the table, with what happened last time, still a possibility.

Edited by Jackone
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georgiedre Enthusiast

georgiedre

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
Posted (edited)

ian f on the sw thread said that he is suggesting more chance of snow there now. what does this mean for us in nw wales and the rest of wales?

Edited by georgiedre
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

ian f on the sw thread said that he is suggesting more chance of snow there now. what does this mean for us in nw wales and the rest of wales?

Thats probably the best news of the day, when they are forecast to get snow, we most definitely (unless you live in far W.Wales and and far SW Wales)

...Going to see what he has said! smile.png

Edit: Yes its amazing news!

Edited by Panayiotis
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georgiedre Enthusiast

georgiedre

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
Posted

Thats probably the best news of the day, when they are forecast to get snow, we most definitely (unless you live in far W.Wales and and far SW Wales)

...Going to see what he has said! smile.png

Edit: Yes it amazing news!

this bud: Very latest UKMO update raises, not lowers, snow likelihood later Sun for much of region. ARPEGE in agreement.

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted (edited)

The Modified UKMO output that he has also just posted shows snow for most of Wales (I think)

Edited by bradythemole
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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

I wonder if we getting the classic stalled front just getting across the border and staying across Wales for 24hrs? the fax just out is suggesting this can happen can Wales steal most of the snow!and South West uk. PPVK89.gif?31415

Looks a lot better than the last FAX, things moving SW, just what we want to see. Long way to go yet though.

The 150-200 miles shift I asked for yesterday is there

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

In spite of what anyone may think or forecast this one will go to the wire, as they usually do!

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

Looks a lot better than the last FAX, things moving SW, just what we want to see. Long way to go yet though.

The 150-200 miles shift I asked for yesterday is there

Pray does work sometimesgood.gif
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Wise post from Essan in the Midlands thread this evening:

At the moment no-one including the Met Office knows where will see snow. However there is a strong likelihoodthat some places within the current 'blanket' warning area will experience disruptive snow. The early warning is exactly what it says on the box: an early warning. It enables those who may need to travel on Sun/Mon to know that there is a possibility their journeys may be disrupted. Better forewarned, than taken unawares. Nearer the time the area of coverage will change.

Always remembering as well that if there is a warning for a given area it does not mean that every single place within that area will be affected. Not even the MetO are able to do warnings specific to postcodes. Yet biggrin.png

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ourson Apprentice

ourson

Posted
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and warm summers
  • Location: Caerdydd/Cardiff 10m asl :(
Posted

Have a journey planned for Sunday up to the South Midlands, staying overnight and back late afternoon Monday. What do you reckon peeps? At the moment, I still plan to go, but will need to keep an eye out for info nearer to the time. Looks to me as if the METO think there will be snow with significant amounts and disruption for some, but have little idea yet as to where exactly will get hammered. As higher res models come into play there will more than likely be massive downgrades for some and upgrades for others. Where will the white stuff fall in big amounts? Wales hopefully! cold.gif

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

Have a journey planned for Sunday up to the South Midlands, staying overnight and back late afternoon Monday. What do you reckon peeps? At the moment, I still plan to go, but will need to keep an eye out for info nearer to the time. Looks to me as if the METO think there will be snow with significant amounts and disruption for some, but have little idea yet as to where exactly will get hammered. As higher res models come into play there will more than likely be massive downgrades for some and upgrades for others. Where will the white stuff fall in big amounts? Wales hopefully! cold.gif

Truth is nobody knows at the moment although the signal does seem to be increasing, we only know ATM the risk of some significant is there so keep an eye on the forecasts and what the Met Office are saying over the next few days.

I feel we will get some snow but haven't the foggiest how much.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Oh how I love this image!

post-17320-0-78398500-1360276410.jpg

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Still urge to contain any excitement until saturday evening maybe even sunday morning.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Where is Wales ?rofl.gif

Quite amazing isnt it? Ian did say this could be the worst scenario for snow, I looked at the video which showed Monday's event and the rain turned to snow at 1/2am and it looked like the image above all the way and past 12pm ~maybe more than 10hours of snowfall I will take that! I really do think this could be better than the snowfall event in January, but it still needs watching.

Video: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2654675

Edited by Panayiotis
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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Only for it to get washed away by the rain.

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CRACKPOT Apprentice

CRACKPOT

Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Ice, Frost, Thunderstorms, Gales
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed, South East Wales Valleys, 190m Asl
Posted

GFS looks like it is playing down the event Sunday/Monday and apparent from elevations up northern areas it's a rain event., It is being said to be a mild outlier but not do sure after the BBC are even showing 8°C all day Sunday and we all know that will produce rain.....

Hoping for upgrades but I think the warnings are going to be modified for elevation and Southern area taken out.

Hope not....

JK

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welshwizard Apprentice

welshwizard

Posted
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
  • Location: Nantymoel (asl 268m)or 879ft
Posted

yes does sound as if as most will miss out on snow and have rain, and even if it does snow it be gone very quick with rain to follow.

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