wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[whiskers]

Looking over the mountains from my house,can see snow ,must of had some snow last night at higher levels,sad ,it looks like a no show for us on Monday now,never mind

[bradymk]

Ian F expecting little if any snow now for SW. This is not good for us although we are further north. PLenty of time still for upgrades/downgrades. Ian also saying that yellow warnings will be amended today.

Edited February 8, 2013 by bradythemole

[BristolBaggie]

yes does sound as if as most will miss out on snow and have rain, and even if it does snow it be gone very quick with rain to follow.

I have to agree, I've seen this situation happen many times before when Bristol and areas further south get the rain whilst areas slightly further North ie Glos/Cheltenham and Midlands get the snow.

Edit . Just seen latest BBC forecast with Carol not showing the widespread snow event that it was showing yesterday and even the midlands didn't seem to be well placed either.

[bradymk]

I have to agree, I've seen this situation happen many times before when Bristol and areas further south get the rain whilst areas slightly further North ie Glos/Cheltenham and Midlands get the snow.

Edit . Just seen latest BBC forecast with Carol not showing the widespread snow event that it was showing yesterday and even the midlands didn't seem to be well placed either.

Did she show Monday's graphics because that is the day of interest for us, Sunday was always a rain day until late evening.

[mikeocarroll]

Some snow on the hills this morning here too, above about 400m, none made it down here though

Sunday/Monday is marginal, marginal, marginal. The event in January had pretty consistent modelling in the last few days at least in the general scope, this coming 'event' has much more uncertainty, if this morning's GFS were to verify then we might not get any lying snow at all, but at this range I would tend to prefer the UKMO which is better, rain to snow.

I'm not seeing much in the way of deep or long-lasting cold, partly because there isn't much of a cold pool to tap into and neither uppers nor surface temps ever get that cold, whichever model you look at. Poss of more marginal snow events though as further lows may slide under the block.

[CRACKPOT]

Mid and South Wales gone off the MetO warnings - higher ground North Wales for Sunday/Monday - oh well, such is life. At least Wales are getting some and it is the northen guys in this Regional forum. Enjoy guys and don't forget to put pictures up etc.

We will do likewise down south with the cold heavy rain..... maybe not!

JK

[foggybrynna]

Tv forcaster are crap like the met office are crap

[Ginkrots]

Despite the downgrade for S Wales, remember we're still a while away and there could be more downgrades or upgrades. Wait until 24 hrs before ;-)

[blackrose73]

There is still time for a SW shift in the placing of the Low come Sunday into Monday. All is not lost yet as this is a very tricky one to call. Still time for things to improve IMO. There will be corrections from model runs between now and Sunday, we just have to hope they are in the right direction.

[whiskers]

Bbc news saying rain for us! Oh we'll till next time

[CRACKPOT]

Tv forcaster are crap like the met office are crap

Is this because it is not showing what you want to see - if so, thats a rather unfair line. These are qualified weather forecasters and scientists who are applying their experience into what is a difficult scenario. Things will change again over the next 24 hours and then if they show what you want you will say they are great - no you won't, you will just be happy and neglect the negative remark you left.

They are doing a hard job and trying to give as much information as they can based on charts to hand at the time. Charts change - not their fault.

JK

Edited February 8, 2013 by CRACKPOT

[TonyH]

Tv forcaster are crap like the met office are crap

Fair enough- a most eloquent analysis of forecasting

Edited February 8, 2013 by TonyH

[marclt]

There is an aversion to forecasting snow by the forecasters. They do err on the side of mild caution. Probably with good reason this time, it's not exactly COLD at the moment, haven't had much of a frost or ice here. It's just not been the arctic blast we thought we'd be getting this time last week.

After the mild spell, and the cold was coming it was widely forecast to be a brief return to cold.

[blackrose73]

I've just been taking a look at the Met Office warnings. Yes it's true that South Wales has had the warning removed, but it would only take a relatively small SW correction of the Low to bring us back in business - some respected posters on the model thread are expecting this to happen over the course of today and tomorrow. So, don't give up hope just yet - the BBC are still stressing that there remains much uncertainty.

[foggybrynna]

No why give weather warning so early if they unsure

[CLH the red dragon]

No why give weather warning so early if they unsure

It's a warning. An indication to prepare and take action, to be aware. Good sensible policy.

[TonyH]

There is an aversion to forecasting snow by the forecasters. They do err on the side of mild caution. Probably with good reason this time, it's not exactly COLD at the moment, haven't had much of a frost or ice here. It's just not been the arctic blast we thought we'd be getting this time last week.

After the mild spell, and the cold was coming it was widely forecast to be a brief return to cold.

It was never going to be especially cold, the really low uppers of -8c were very transitory on Tuesday, however surprised not to have seen so much as a frost this week!

No why give weather warning so early if they unsure

Please refer to my quote of Essan's post in the Midlands thread a few pages back!

[CRACKPOT]

No why give weather warning so early if they unsure

If you read the warnings properly - they stipulate the word 'potential/risk' - this is not a defninitive 'it will happen' - but a be prepared it 'could' happen.

There is a difference you know!

JK

[TonyH]

In fact don't bother here it is again:

At the moment no-one including the Met Office knows where will see snow. However there is a strong likelihoodthat some places within the current 'blanket' warning area will experience disruptive snow. The early warning is exactly what it says on the box: an early warning. It enables those who may need to travel on Sun/Mon to know that there is a possibility their journeys may be disrupted. Better forewarned, than taken unawares. Nearer the time the area of coverage will change.

Always remembering as well that if there is a warning for a given area it does not mean that every single place within that area will be affected. Not even the MetO are able to do warnings specific to postcodes. Yet

Pease note this was posted yesterday in reference to yesterday's warnings not today's revised ones.

Edited February 8, 2013 by TonyH

[marclt]

so how is the rest of next week looking - haven't had a chance to look at the charts? Is the atlantic knocking on our door?

[foggybrynna]

Sori for offending any 1

[mikeocarroll]

so how is the rest of next week looking - haven't had a chance to look at the charts? Is the atlantic knocking on our door?

It's certainly knocking at the door, but the block hasn't decided to open the door yet. However the Atlantic is cunning and may climb in through the window or simply blow the door down. Stronger blocking desperately needed.

[dbaloo]

at least in half an hour or so we should have a little more detail about the weekends weather .i'm still hoping for birthday snow on monday!

[TonyH]

Or a little more confusion!

[catuk]

Be lovely to have this for us in Wales, he doesn't have any worry in mentioning the snow word that's for sure.

There's a video on there.

http://www.wcvb.com/weather/-Historic-Blizzard-forecast-Friday-in-Massachusetts/-/9850416/18416088/-/s4cvp6z/-/index.html