wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[blackrose73]

UKMO looking good for us in Wales, fingers crossed!

[Bonjangle]

UKMO looking good for us in Wales, fingers crossed!

Yes indeedy North Wales

[dbaloo]

any ideas any1 of what we can expect?

[Sionzzz]

Yes indeedy North Wales

Low levels north Wales?

[Bonjangle]

Low levels north Wales?

Yes indeedy

[J10]

To me the 12Hz are looking more promising than the overnight ones is terms of snow potential, while still not being as good as last night ones.

Last week, there was a forecast of heavy rain for North Wales Thursday into Friday from the NAE, and the next run, it was forecast for South Wales, the next run it was forecast for Devon, and it actually ended up hitting South Wales to a certain extent. So it is possible at shortish notice for notable changes.

Looking at current NAE guidance

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://expert-images...021012_0812.gif

A few miles further south could easily make it more promising for Wales, more especially later on Sunday.

So in Summary, not looking brilliant at moment for areas outside yellow warning, but things could change, and no need for fat ladies, yet.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Jackone

[Sionzzz]

Yes indeedy

Yay! I bloody hope so, we've seriously missed out so far this winter, haven't had any lying snow at all!

[marclt]

I'd love another fall before spring... being totally greedy though, cos we've already had 12inches!

Edited February 8, 2013 by marclt

[RainyNWales]

Just a quick question. How come people are saying its great for North Wales (unless they mean NE wales) atm when looking at those charts above i just see rain and light snow at best. I will eat my hat if we got anything good out of this considering how disappointed we normally are around here, of course i hope im wrong. Maybe if we pray hard enough Sion it will eventually happen

Edited February 8, 2013 by RainyNWales

[Sionzzz]

Just a quick question. How come people are saying its great for North Wales (unless they mean NE wales) atm when looking at those charts above i just see rain and light snow at best. I will eat my hat if we got anything good out of this considering how disappointed we normally are around here, of course i hope im wrong. Maybe if we pray hard enough Sion it will eventually happen

There is never any detailed info on north Wales, most of the time when someone is talking about weather in Wales they mean the south. I'm really hoping we get some this time though, I'd be happy with just an inch or two of lying snow!

[RainyNWales]

There is never any detailed info on north Wales, most of the time when someone is talking about weather in Wales they mean the south. I'm really hoping we get some this time though, I'd be happy with just an inch or two of lying snow!

Indeed, if we got a couple of inches i would be more than happy, would just be nice to see heavy snow falling for an hour for once rather than the really light snow we tend to get that can never settle

[in the vale]

I am pretty pleased with the outlook as here we've seen only a couple of highly unimpressive snowfalls so far this Winter! I think we managed about a 2-3mm covering for about an hour before the rain came back in, so I reckon it's my turn! NE Wales still in the more 'marginal' zone though, so a 50M correction east would see us as a mainly rain event. The NAE only goes out to 12Z Sun at the mo, but there is a big pink blob over my house! Oh - how I love big pink blobs! EDIT - the NW NMM model only shows rain for me at the same time (-1 850 hPa). I think that by then the colder upper air will have already started to feed in from the East though. Or is that a hopecast??

Edited February 8, 2013 by in the vale

[dyl232]

There is never any detailed info on north Wales, most of the time when someone is talking about weather in Wales they mean the south. I'm really hoping we get some this time though, I'd be happy with just an inch or two of lying snow!

I know how you both feel especially with the snow that fell last month, 30 miles west to you here and we got pasted while u missed out,I hope its your time to enjoy the snow this comin sun/Mon. :-)

[mikeocarroll]

To me the 12Hz are looking more promising than the overnight ones is terms of snow potential, while still not being as good as last night ones.

Last week, there was a forecast of heavy rain for North Wales Thursday into Friday from the NAE, and the next run, it was forecast for South Wales, the next run it was forecast for Devon, and it actually ended up hitting South Wales to a certain extent. So it is possible at shortish notice for notable changes.

Looking at current NAE guidance

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://expert-images...021012_0812.gif

A few miles further south could easily make it more promising for Wales, more especially later on Sunday.

So in Summary, not looking brilliant at moment for areas outside yellow warning, but things could change, and no need for fat ladies, yet.

I reckon a lot depends on whether those two low pressure centres stay separate or merge, and what is the balance between them, i.e. it is better if the southern depression is the stronger feature. It's clearly an extremely complex picture and we're on a knife-edge in terms of snow on Sunday/Monday. North-East Wales is obviously favoured at the moment and has a pretty high chance of snow I'd say, but how significant it's hard to be sure.

Two other points I'd make are: 1) the length of precipitation seems to be reduced in all of today's runs, compared to yesterday, when some models showed a trough moving back over Great Britain on Monday, bringing further precip. 2) there is a possiblity of more slider lows / marginal snow events next week, GFS 12z for example shows a fair bit of trough disruption. Will be interesting to see the ECM later, which is better at the 5-6 day range.

[J10]

I reckon a lot depends on whether those two low pressure centres stay separate or merge, and what is the balance between them, i.e. it is better if the southern depression is the stronger feature. It's clearly an extremely complex picture and we're on a knife-edge in terms of snow on Sunday/Monday. North-East Wales is obviously favoured at the moment and has a pretty high chance of snow I'd say, but how significant it's hard to be sure.

Two other points I'd make are: 1) the length of precipitation seems to be reduced in all of today's runs, compared to yesterday, when some models showed a trough moving back over Great Britain on Monday, bringing further precip. 2) there is a possiblity of more slider lows / marginal snow events next week, GFS 12z for example shows a fair bit of trough disruption. Will be interesting to see the ECM later, which is better at the 5-6 day range.

Good analysis there, be interesting to see what ECM comes out with.

[Sionzzz]

Looking at the snow accumulations from GFS on weatheronline, it does look quite good for the whole of north Wales, but this is just a small picture of what could happen.

[in the vale]

For those of you who (like me) can't wait for Sunday..... http://www.ustream.t.../ct-weather-cam

(Sighs)

Edited February 8, 2013 by in the vale

[mickeyflyn]

rain for south east Wales i think sunday

[welshwizard]

I hope it don't rain on sunday as my son has a rugby match and nothing worse than the kids getting soaking wet even before they start. some don't even start as soon as they get wet they get cold and that's it ha ha. at least if it was dry snow it would blow off them when they run ha ha. I think by the looks another wet day for most of Wales. never mind we had a fair bit of snow this year,summer I want now and a long hot sunny one PLEASE.

[J10]

Friday Night and my latest Alps blog is out

As usual it gives the synoptic patterns over Europe over the next week.

While getting synoptic pattern conducive for snowfall for Wales and the UK is sometimes like drawing teeth, it is looking very promising for extremely heavy snowfalls for New England over the weekend, with 1 metre of snow expected in places.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21377568

[Gavla]

Well it looks like our risk of snow has all but gone now for the weekend , does anybody know of any good cam links to this snow storm in north east america ? Wish i was there so much just want to imagine im there.

[swales]

Well it looks like our risk of snow has all but gone now for the weekend , does anybody know of any good cam links to this snow storm in north east america ? Wish i was there so much just want to imagine im there.

http://www.trafficla.../NYC/index.html

Some NYC traffic cameras there

Edit: You can navigate to other states and cities etc, some interesting ones on there

Edited February 8, 2013 by shaunwales

[Clazbod]

Well it looks like our risk of snow has all but gone now for the weekend , does anybody know of any good cam links to this snow storm in north east america ? Wish i was there so much just want to imagine im there.

Good coverage of the US storm on the weather channel http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/live-stream :-)

[blackrose73]

Just had an e-mail from a friend in Boston who is jumping up and down with excitement! Lucky buggers!

[Gavla]

Thanks guys il check them links out, goin to have to go out there one day to experience a proper blizzard, and i agree im so jeolous of the lucky buggers, could make hell of a snowman out of all that snow lol