wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[givemeadangler]

Some v interesting developments for Western Wales for Monday night into Tuesday. GFS not really showing it, UKMO and NMM do.

Don't suppose you'd care to give us westerns more info on this?

P.s. after lurking in here this winter I'd thought I'd join in the fun

Got a feeling winter is far from done for Wales yet

[bradymk]

Don't suppose you'd care to give us westerns more info on this?

P.s. after lurking in here this winter I'd thought I'd join in the fun

Got a feeling winter is far from done for Wales yet

It is only a potential outcome at this stage so do not get too excited as it is way too far away however UKMO 12z shows precip edging into Western Wales Monday night with -5c uppers, cold T2 and Dew points so snow highly a possibility. NMM 12z on meteociel not updated yet but this showed precip developing just off the west coast also monday evening with uppers and DP's conductive of snow. It is only a possbility and there is a chance the precip will stay in E Ireland rather than make it across to W Wales however we will know more in coming runs and it will soon be coming into the MetO high res NAE model which only runs to 48 hours ahead.

Edited February 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[givemeadangler]

Thanks for the reply Brady, much appreciated

[mikeocarroll]

The NMM (netweather version, different from the one posted by Brady above) continues the downgrade for tomorrow/Monday, with the depression further north (and more made of the secondary depression that is further north still), keeping snow away from all but the far NE of Wales, and then it is pretty light. Precip and snow risk charts for tomorrow midnight:

The only cause for optimism is that this is a complex low / double low system and very difficult for models to get a handle on. Last minute upgrades, whilst unlikely at this range, cannot entirely be ruled out right up to T0.

Further ahead the GFS 6z and 12z today both pretty good, but would like ECM to show something similar later before getting too interested.

[J10]

NAE gives the potential for some heavy snow for E and parts of inland SE Wales tomorrow night.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

As a progression here are the past 3 charts for midnight Sunday to Monday.

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheron...302090000&HH=48

I am sure tonight's version will change this again.

Just seen NMM for tomorrow and completely different, a complete non event for snow over Wales.

Huge differences for events in less than 48 hours.

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/live-stream The latest from over the pond, the snow time lapse is particularly impressive. .

Edited February 9, 2013 by Jackone

[CRACKPOT]

Latest Welsh TV forecast not really very good for snow - but I think, even this close it's up in the air. However, my feeling is little snow...

JK

[Ginkrots]

Looked good for a bit of a covering higher up in E/SE Wales mon morning, although after all that rain and the snow not very heavy, it may be too soggy!

[CRACKPOT]

Looked good for a bit of a covering higher up in E/SE Wales mon morning, although after all that rain and the snow not very heavy, it may be too soggy!

BBC end 'gambit' was .... wet snow!

Not good....

JK

[Carl46Wrexham]

Current temp : 3.9c

DP : 3.6c

Humidity : 98%

Weather : Light rain all day and still falling (7.3mm in last 24 hours)

Edited February 9, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[CRACKPOT]

Dead in here today - ...... never seen so much tumbleweed..........

JK

[Panayiotis]

Before the 18z updates just re looked at the 12z and couldnt help to notice that there could be some flooding in S.Wales tomorrow as over half of the average rainfall for February may fall (30-40mm), imagine if it was just snow! Would be amazing and if the the 18z NAE updates with a SW correction we could be looking at something interesting, but so far a damp squib or should we say very very damp squib!

Edited February 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Bob Bobson]

The main message I get from reading this thread is that many of you are:

[CRACKPOT]

Times Square....

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

JK

[bradymk]

Times Square....

http://www.earthcam....rk/timessquare/

JK

Timelapse from Boston. Some parts of Boston have received 3 foot of lying snow, with bigger drifts. Unreal.

[benb]

The main message I get from reading this thread is that many of you are:

I think there's a lot of sensible, realistic posts being made, myself.

Probably going to be a less snowy 'event' than looked possible a couple of days ago, but it's another complex situation so there may yet be a few pleasant surprises for some...

[CRACKPOT]

I think there's a lot of sensible, realistic posts being made, myself.

Probably going to be a less snowy 'event' than looked possible a couple of days ago, but it's another complex situation so there may yet be a few pleasant surprises for some...

Well said - I do not see where the straw clutching is - not many posts at all in here today - and those that are, are showing what might happen in a fair light - no straws.

JK

[marclt]

It is only a potential outcome at this stage so do not get too excited as it is way too far away however UKMO 12z shows precip edging into Western Wales Monday night with -5c uppers, cold T2 and Dew points so snow highly a possibility. NMM 12z on meteociel not updated yet but this showed precip developing just off the west coast also monday evening with uppers and DP's conductive of snow. It is only a possbility and there is a chance the precip will stay in E Ireland rather than make it across to W Wales however we will know more in coming runs and it will soon be coming into the MetO high res NAE model which only runs to 48 hours ahead.

Don't suppose you'd care to give us westerns more info on this?

P.s. after lurking in here this winter I'd thought I'd join in the fun

Got a feeling winter is far from done for Wales yet

We hope not. How much did Clarby road get in January? Had quite a bit up here. I was surprised temps today were something like 7.6c mid afternoon.

[bradymk]

We hope not. How much did Clarby road get in January? Had quite a bit up here. I was surprised temps today were something like 7.6c mid afternoon.

Yes got to 8c here today too. Even though Wales has seen some good snow, frosts have definitely been lacking this winter. Keep an eye on GFS 18z to see if it shows a similar situation to UKMO for Monday night/Tuesday and if it continues its theme of weakening the atlantic with trough disruption occuring out west with a ridge building north into Greenland.

[J10]

Before the 18z updates just re looked at the 12z and couldnt help to notice that there could be some flooding in S.Wales tomorrow as over half of the average rainfall for February may fall (30-40mm), imagine if it was just snow! Would be amazing and if the the 18z NAE updates with a SW correction we could be looking at something interesting, but so far a damp squib or should we say very very damp squib!

As well as snowfall potential varying from run to run, the same applies to precipitation potential. It will also be interesting to see how this is reflected in later runs (and also in NMM)

Well said - I do not see where the straw clutching is - not many posts at all in here today - and those that are, are showing what might happen in a fair light - no straws.

JK

I agree no straws clutching today from what I see, just people going through the charts, and why might happen,

Edited February 9, 2013 by Jackone

[marclt]

Had a twitter convo with Derek Brockway earlier, suggested snow settling in an area from SE England, Midlands, Wales, northern England and eastern Scotland but accumulations patchy.

Still can't see it happening over Pembs or carms.

[givemeadangler]

We hope not. How much did Clarby road get in January? Had quite a bit up here. I was surprised temps today were something like 7.6c mid afternoon.

We did fairly well here, about 3-4 inches from the initial fall with a couple of minor top ups which balanced out the slow thaw. Quite rare to have the white stuff covering the garden for a week.

[bradymk]

Had a twitter convo with Derek Brockway earlier, suggested snow settling in an area from SE England, Midlands, Wales, northern England and eastern Scotland but accumulations patchy.

Still can't see it happening over Pembs or carms.

No tomorrow looks a non-event for most of South Wales for me at the moment. By the time the cold air arrives, most of the precip will have gone southwards. Chance of some falling snow in SE Wales perhaps but little or no accumulations for South Wales. Time for change obviously, but will have to be a huge change now.

[Herefordweather]

18z Nae looks slightly further southwest to me.

[Panayiotis]

Thankfully the heavier rain doesnt accumulate to as much as the 12z was predicting, what will the snowfall maps look like though?

[bradymk]

18z NAE, a definate shift west of precip however I do not think it will change the areas that have been hightlighted to be affected too much.

Edited February 9, 2013 by bradythemole