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South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th February 2013 17:00hrs>


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Do you think it would be taking it too far to cut the bottom half of our legs off just to get the snow above our kneecaps?

That's certainly one way of looking at things!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Hmm, I am not sure this is going to be cold enough judging by the 850`s.

ECM0-24.GIF?09-0

I am going to set sail for Holland in the morning and see hat happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hmm, I am not sure this is going to be cold enough judging by the 850`s.

ECM0-24.GIF?09-0

I am going to set sail for Holland in the morning and see hat happens.

Me neither, Stuie...Unless the precipitation stays in the same place, for a long time...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

NMM wants 10-15m of snow in quite a wide area.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

here's the ukmo MESO model for 6pm tomorrow (courtesy of matt hugo)

post-15445-0-25778300-1360434863_thumb.p

crosses are snow, circles are rain

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

Hmm, I am not sure this is going to be cold enough judging by the 850`s.

ECM0-24.GIF?09-0

I am going to set sail for Holland in the morning and see hat happens.

Can you post the 1am chart?? On mobile so can't access it, ta

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Apologies! I was a member for some years in the past s Snowangel....so no newbie excuses! Will do !

Welcome back angel.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

here's the ukmo MESO model for 6pm tomorrow (courtesy of matt hugo)

post-15445-0-25778300-1360434863_thumb.p

crosses are snow, circles are rain

I'm just in the snow area which is good

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent.
  • Location: Rochester, Kent.

Hmm, I am not sure this is going to be cold enough judging by the 850`s.

ECM0-24.GIF?09-0

I am going to set sail for Holland in the morning and see hat happens.

The 850hpa temperature isn't a very important factor in this setup. Things such as dew points and precipitation intensity will be more important.

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Posted
  • Location: North Lowestoft
  • Location: North Lowestoft

That's certainly one way of looking at things!

I worked a very stupid non stop 26 hour shift starting at 07.15 yesterday morning, really should have gone to bed when I got home but didn't, so I'm now entering the delirious state. I feel that because we get very little snow in our particular area what we need is a "Honey I Shrunk The Kids" type machine. Then the snow we do get will look massive.

Edited by Gary_R_Walker
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

I still think snow accumulations will be quite large for areas around the Thames estuary, moisture pumped in from a strengthening easterly wind and the strengthening break away low should pep up the precipitation.

Yes, but this can be both a good thing and a bad thing.

In a marginal environment adding more moisture can be a bad thing. Essentially, if you have low RH (relative humidity) say 90% or less and low surface temperatures of <3degC, then adding more moisture will increase the melt rate of precipitation from snow to rain, so by the time it hits the ground it will be rain even though it started out from the cloud as snow. The reason that this is, is because a lower RH level in the atmosphere means that as the snow falls it must evaporate which requires energy. In a snow flake this energy is farmed from it's own temperature and thus keeps the snowflake frozen.

Conversely, of course, it will snow in marginal conditions if the RH value is low enough, even if the surface temperature is above zero. It is physically possible to have a RH of 40%, and snow will fall at +8C degrees if the cloud base is low enough.

Strange, but true.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Me neither, Stuie...Unless the precipitation stays in the same place, for a long time...

850's aren't the best indicator in these situations (I.e shallow flow from the near continent) - best indicators are WBFL's (sub 200m ideally), 850-1000mb thicknesses (1295 or below) and dew points

I will explain a little more in depth later as to why 850mb temps aren't the best indicators for these situations (though they still need to be sub 0c)

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

How heavy is yellow colour on that map?

not sure that the colours represent precip intensity. if they do, there's no key on the chart so i have no idea!

i think the main use for the chart is to show snow/rain

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster Bridge London Borough of Havering 40m above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Siberian
  • Location: Upminster Bridge London Borough of Havering 40m above sea level

Dexter -

I can't say I followed it particularly closely during the last cold spell, will see if I can find some archived charts. But I have sat up and taken a bit more note of those charts since the bombshell was dropped that it runs at 15km resolution up until +48 (not sure how I had managed to miss that one all this time!) - thats 1km higher in resolution to that point than the ECMWF.

Incidentally, for anyone who hasn't discovered it yet, this is a great tool to view the ECMWF precipitation:

http://www.yr.no/kar...kyer&proj=3575

SK

Great site SK. I was walking in the Vienna Woods very recently, I think I would have rather more trouble doing that now looking at the snow ppn there. The Heurigen will be taking a pasting!

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Central southern areas are going to do best now.. Omg I would be happy with just seeing flakes falling from the sky tomorrow let alone settling snow.. That would be a bonus for me lol!

NMM & BBC going for more Eastern areas, NAE as you say is say central-southern, why can't we just know!? :p

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Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex

NMM & BBC going for more Eastern areas, NAE as you say is say central-southern, why can't we just know!? :p

The NAE will change tomorrow, so will the BBC and MMM

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