south indian ocean Tropical Cyclone Gino

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 15S has formed 650 miles east-southeast of Diego Garcia and is located in the central South Indian Ocean. Intensity is 35kts. 15S has improving central convection and pronounced banding features wrapping from the southern quadrant of the cyclone into the western quadrant. 15S is in an environment of low shear, warm sea temps and excellent outflow in both poleward and equatorward directions. This environment is conducive to some quick intensification over the next 72hrs before 15S encounters cooler water and increasing shear. 15S is moving towards the southwest along the northwestern side of a ridge to the southeast. The cyclone will turn to the south soon then the southeast as it rounds the western side of the ridge. 15S is of no threat to land.

Edited February 11, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Now been named Gino by MeteoFrance.

[Somerset Squall]

Gino has strengthened rapidly over the last 24 hours. Intensity has rocketed up to 70kts, cat 1 on the SS scale. A central dense overcast continued to build through yesterday, flanked by strong banding. Recently, an eye has formed. The rapid intensification is a result of a highly favourable upper level environment characterised by very low shear and excellent radial outflow. Sea temps and low level convergence have also supported the intensification. Further strengthening is expected, and it is possible that further rapid strengthening could occur, though intensity changes are hard to predict.

[Somerset Squall]

Gino continues to strengthen. Sustained winds are now at 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. Convection continues to be deep surrounding the ragged eye. Banding features also remain impressive. Gino could strengthen a little more as it heads to the south, but time is running out as the cyclone will soon be over cooler water.

[Coast]

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Cyclone Gino as the storm continues to wind up in the southern Indian Ocean, consolidating and strengthening. Infrared data shows the storm has strengthened but it is headed for cooler waters which will weaken it in coming days.

On Feb. 12 at 0841 UTC, NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard the Aqua satellite captured infrared imagery of Cyclone Gino that showed the storm developed a large area of very cold, high cloud top temperatures around its center indicating powerful thunderstorms. Cloud top temperatures were as cold as -63 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius) indicating strong storms that have the capability to produce heavy rainfall. The AIRS imagery also suggests a ragged eye had formed.

On Feb. 12 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST), Cyclone Gino’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 75 knots (86.3 mph/138.9 kph) making the storm a category one hurricane. Gino was centered near 17.1 south latitude and 79.5 east longitude, about 700 nautical miles (805.5 miles/1,296 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.

Gino has been moving to the south-southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph), around the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge (elongated area) of high pressure.

AIRS data shows that the sea surface temperatures around Gino are currently favorable for further development because they’re around a warm 28 degrees Celsius (82.4 Fahrenheit). However, as Gino moves further south-southwest, those sea surface temperatures will drop, making it more difficult for the tropical cyclone to maintain intensity.

In addition, wind shear is expected to increase over the next three days as Gino moves further south. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Gino to transition to a cold core low pressure area by Feb. 15.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112783369/cyclone-gino-strengthen-weaken-nasa-021313/

[Somerset Squall]

Gino has started to weaken. The eye is less organised than earlier today, though the central convection remains deep. Sustained winds have lowered slightly to 85kts, still cat 2. Further weakening is anticipated.

[Coast]

At 0505 UTC (12:05 a.m. EST) on Feb. 13 the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Gino. The image clearly showed the ocean surface down through the middle of Gino's ragged eye. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, microwave satellite imagery indicated that the eye is weakening on both low- and mid-levels. By 1200 UTC (7 a.m. EST), Gino's maximum sustained winds were as high as 85 knots (97.8 mph/157.4 kph) making the storm a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Gino was centered near 20.6 south latitude and 79.9 east longitude, about 875 nautical miles (1,007 miles/ 1,621 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia, and far from any land areas. Gino was moving to the south-southeast at 11 knots (12.6 mph/20.3 kph). Gino continues to head into cooler sea surface temperatures. An approaching trough, or elongated area of low pressure is expected to increase wind shear. Those two factors will adversely affect Gino over the next couple of days.

http://phys.org/news/2013-02-nasa-satellites-cyclone-gino-centered.html#jCp

[Somerset Squall]

Gino is being destroyed by shear currently. Intensity has fallen to 45kts. Convection is being sheared to the southeast of the increasingly distorted LLC. Extratropical transition should occur soon as cool waters join the shear.