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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Usual rules apply.

Please keep on topic. No moaning, trolling or bickering.

And remember sub zero days are possible until well into March, so thoughts that cold will finish just because winter is drawing to a close are far from the truth.

The theme is for blocking around or to the north of the UK by around day 10

post-4523-0-92775400-1360703285_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-12639800-1360703345_thumb.pn

We are still in a period where the mean zonal winds have not yet recovered to average at 10 hPa following the SSW, so tropospheric wavelength patterns can dominate against the weak stratospheric background.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_10_2012_merra.pdf

Can winter provide that sting in it's tail?

Discuss here.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM full ensemble has some agreement for a cool down of sorts but there are still a fair few milder members showing at this stage

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

Precipitation is low through-out

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

ECM full ensemble has decent agreement for a cool down

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

Precipitation is low through-out

Doesn't look great to me, quite poor infact!

Near the end there is a cool down but to nothing perticularly cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Doesn't look great to me, quite poor infact!

Near the end there is a cool down but to nothing perticularly cold.

I thought they were good with a good cold cluster however there are always going to be milder members at this stage which will offset the mean somewhat. Take out those milder runs and the mean would be a lot lower, likewise the other way round but more colder members than mild.
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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

ECM full ensemble has decent agreement for a cool down of sorts but there are still a fair few milder members showing at this stage

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

Precipitation is low through-out

Always encouraging to see control and op in almost perfect unison even without ensemble support.

Once again it looks as though, relative to the ensemble suite, the ECMWF det was a more extreme solution, but this is 3 runs in a row now its suggested a similar progression (i.e. increasing heights to the north, lowering to the south later in the run, easterly mean flow). I think it was BA who suggested it had been known a few times for the ECM det to show an idea for 3 runs in a row and drop it, but up to 4/5 runs almost unheard of (December being an exception). If we are still looking at a similar progression at 12z tomorrow, then we look at this idea as more than just potential.

Still on the extreme side of things for now, but how much longer for...

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
CGuziuw_zps24aa1e38.jpgcopied this from the other side just to lighten the mood b4 the pub run comes out. it is kinda model related
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn14417.png

Here we go with the pub run again, BBQ time next week with these 2m temps....

I for one shall be keeping the BBQ in the shed!! and keeping my ECM snow shovel close by.

Edited by bigsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

Well the GFS remains bullish from it's 12z run of it's idea of an early spring, probably more even as high pressure remains in SITU well into FI, can't but help feeling that the ECM has gone on one again.

Edited by SnowObsessor90
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Two typical charts from the 18z GFS and the 12z ECM at 168 hrs,the ECM building a

decent high north of the UK,the GFS just flattens any ridge as per usual.

ecm.. gfs..

Which will be nearer the mark this time around?

Find out next week!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Unusually few posts in this thread this evening despite another impending snow event admittedly in the north and a very cold ECM outlook, I would have thought there would be many more people posting.

In terms of the models, the theme is definately a blocked one with the jet forecast to move southwards and the signal for higher than normal heights our north along with a negative NAO developing something we haven't seen all winter.

GFS does stuggle in blocking set ups - more so than ECM, however, it is interesting to note it does eventually suggest the ECM outlook shown for 216 hrs admittedly right at the end of its timeframe..

The question is will we finally see heights building to our NW before the end of the month - yes if we the lobe of PV over Canada finally retreats to Siberia as being suggested by ECM today.

More generally, I do sense of an air of 'end of winter' from some people, yes the sun is getting stronger and the days longer, but SST's are still cooling, the arctic is yet to reach its lowest minimum temp and there is a marked temp lag to get through yet... people would do well to look at the charts of early March as recently as 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2010 very cold uppers and low temps were recorded in all those years, indeed early-mid March on average is colder than early-mid December and more likely to bring severe frosts and snowfall. Its an equivalent period to early-mid Sept often a warm settled period of the year when temperatures in the high 20 are certainly not out of the ordinary, indeed low 30's can still easily be achieved, just like ice days can still be achieved up until about mid March.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

GFS 18z develops the high near to the UK next week and this is close to the outputs in the 12Z ECM/GFS mean charts.

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?12-0

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-240.png?12

We will likely get a colder surface drift off the continent in that setup with frosty nights and some bright days but the deep cold that we are looking for would stay further east

Disappointing as it is for our chances of a high further north and a subsequent easterly,the 18z GFS has reasonable support.

Let`s hope that the 12Z ECM Op.run is on to something and other outputs follow that trend in future runs.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

The options remain very open when we get to around the Day 6 period and afterwards. We either we get a European based High, maybe far enough north for a continental drift that keeps things chilly and quiet - pleasant enough after all the rain of the wintersmile.png Or, we get the favourably orientated High which can retrogress and pull down colder uppers from Western Europe and NE Europe and some excitement.

I think the models and ensembles as of tonight keep both things rolling forward as possibilitiessmile.png

Edited by Tamara Road
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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

From a cold point of view I hope the GFS 18z is way off the mark, it has shunted everything east. From the point of view of those who have been flooded out of house and home this last year/winter, however, the high pressure setup would be great news.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

http://www.meteociel...ECM1-240.GIF?00

http://www.meteociel...ECM1-240.GIF?12

just a quick reminder on the ECM op- this were the X2 day 10 charts from the days before the weekend event just gone-

got to say that is a new level of accuracy.

S

In comparison to:

gfs-2013020100-0-240.png?0

and

gfs-2013020112-0-240.png?12

for the GFS. Simply no contest, in this particular instance at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

http://www.meteociel...ECM1-240.GIF?00

http://www.meteociel...ECM1-240.GIF?12

just a quick reminder on the ECM op- this were the X2 day 10 charts from the days before the weekend event just gone-

got to say that is a new level of accuracy.

S

Got to say Steve thats very impressive, hope they've called the general pattern right in 10 days time, too.

Cheers,

Tom.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Well the GFS remains bullish from it's 12z run of it's idea of an early spring, probably more even as high pressure remains in SITU well into FI, can't but help feeling that the ECM has gone on one again.

ecm gone on one? When did the ecm go on one?
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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

The ECM mean is ok at 240 hours. It looks like it just about to take a trip towards Greenland... Just a slower version of the op..Gfs fl and ECM later output have been hinting this for a while... It's just if and when.

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

I gather that London's average temp is 7C, making the mean of the ECM ensembles below average by a degree or so after the 20th , tomorrows run's especially the ECM's will be interesting, hoping that it continues with what it has been showing today.

post-17320-0-39500000-1360718846_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

ecm gone on one? When did the ecm go on one?

Perhaps 'going of on one' was the wrong choice of phrase, maybe 'going overboard' would have more appropriate which you do have to admit it has done on quite few occasions this season, do hope it's right though :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Big difference between UKMO and GFS this morning as one might expect.

GFS still sending energy NE and comparatively flat but UKMO looking good at 120h.

UN120-21.GIF?13-05gfsnh-0-120.png

While posting that the UKMO 144h came out and it's a cracker.

UN144-21.GIF?13-05

Don't think we will see anything as good as yesterdays morning ECM but the ECM run should be worth a view this morning.

While the Euros want to prolong Winter GFS is busy bringing Spring.

gfsnh-0-162.png?0Rtavn16217.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I have to laugh at GFS, it only takes to 264h and it throws up a chart similar to the UKMO at 144. fool.gif

gfsnh-0-264.png?0

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

The Gfs may as well be unplugged and placed in the nearest skip, it just cannot grasp the concept of sending the Atlantic anywhere other than north east.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter plus Summer.
  • Location: Netherlands

UKMo 00z is a good set up , for the High pressure to go north from the UK.post-18788-0-65180500-1360730783_thumb.g

There is a cold low by the east sea , a slide low develep south to UK.

This is the way forward the way i want.

It could surprise us with :post-18788-0-29324300-1360730812_thumb.g

I still believe at basis from the most models , particular ECMWF that cold pattern will come en wil stay mayby for a lond time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The Gfs may as well be unplugged and placed in the nearest skip, it just cannot grasp the concept of sending the Atlantic anywhere other than north east.

GEM goes pretty much the GFS route to the mid term (120/144) while NOGAPS is closer to UKMO for the same period.

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