Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Weather-history]

Even though the ECM is (another) excellent run, especially for the south, we do need the block a bit further north.Even so I'm not sure what to make of +216 to +240,I thought D10 would have looked a bit better than that following on from +216. No complaints though, Euros steadfast in a spell of colder weather heading our way whilst the GFS carries on like a stuck record

I think the problem is the area of low pressure off the Newfoundland region. I can't see how you can get a Greenland block from that scenario.

[weather eater]

Not bad this morning on the ECM and the UKMO, certainly promising, however, some of you are still making the same either or mistake, the GFS is most likely barking up the wrong tree, highly likely in my books, but that fact doesn’t mean that the ECM/UKMO version of events is therefore correct, the greatest likelihood is that they are both wrong and we end up with a compromise in the middle.

I think the problem is the area of low pressure off the Newfoundland region. I can't see how you can get a Greenland block from that scenario.

No and I have to wonder is this the start of the backtrack by the ECM, we have been here before, lets hope not, the ECM and UKMO 12z will be the most interesting runs of the day, meanwhile it has just started to snow here.

Edited February 13, 2013 by weather eater

[winterof79]

Good agreement @ T144 from the UKMO and ECM for high pressure to move to the North of the UK (hopefully over time moving to the promised land lol).

The GFS is lagging behind again - IMO the GFS has really turned into a giant turd of a model

Have to agree,out of the big three it is currently running in a firm turd.

Edited February 13, 2013 by winterof79

[johnholmes]

copied from the in depth area this morning

[TEITS]

Excellent runs this morning from the UKMO/ECM. Im not really bothered about the details just yet because the positioning of the HP is bound to change and so will the upper temps. However I really cannot take my eye off the potential of a bitter Arctic blast occurring during the last week of Feb.

On a negative note the GFS is awful as usual. Whats rather odd is at +144 the UKMO & ECM have SLP at 1020mb and yet not one GEFS member gets near this including the control, GFS Op.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20130213/00/prmslReyjavic.png

Based on this winter so far you have to back the UKMO/ECM. This isn't because of what it shows because I would say the same if the output was the opposite with the GFS showing the cold potential.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report of the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Wednesday February 13th 2013.

All models show a change to milder conditions over the next 24 hours or so. There is a slack and cold air pocket over the UK at the moment but this is being stirred by a freshening Southerly wind through today in association with a set of troughs moving in from the West. Rain turning to snow as it moves East will continue it's progress Eastwards through the day giving accumulations of snow in the North for a time before it all turns back to rain tonight as much milder air moves in. Tomorrow and Friday sees winds having swung into the NW with unusually for a NW flow much milder air with just scattered showers over Thursday and dry and bright conditions on Friday. As a ridge moves across the UK at the start of the weekend winds back SW with a little light rain and drizzle likely as a warm front moves NE leaving the UK under a slack and mild SSW flow to end the weekend.

GFS then shows next week governed by High pressure to the SE of Britain with relatively mild and rather cloudy SW winds with any rain restricted to the far NW. Through FI winds back SE and High pressure relocates to the North of the UK with Easterly winds developing though with no cold air to tap into things would stay reasonably mild until the end of FI when colder air infiltrates over Western Europe and moves slowly West into the South of the UK.

The GFS Ensembles show almost universal agreement for a much milder spell with temperatures near or above normal for a considerable time before things steadily shift back down towards the seasonal average. The operational was both a mild and then cold outlier through the mid and end sections of the run respectively. There is minimalist support for anything really cold by any but a few members this morning. It will be mostly dry though for much of the time through the next few weeks.

The Jet Stream shows a steadily weakening flow over the next few days though the general pattern will remain similar before a relocation well to the SW of the UK of the flow takes place early next week as it moves East towards Spain.

UKMO shows High pressure over Europe and Low pressure in the Atlantic with a Southerly flow backing SE as Low pressure weakens and disrupts in the Atlantic. This allows a High pressure belt to build down from the Norwegian Sea to the North Sea at the end of its run with an increasingly chilly SE flow developing though still largely dry.

ECM shows a similar development to UKMO today though somewhat more pronounced with an Easterly flow developing by next Tuesday and pulling colder weather into Southern Britain as High pressure centres close over the North of the UK with dry and frosty conditions likely for all in a renewed blocking situation.

In Summary there is a contrast between the Euro's and the Americans today as the former show a slowly developing blocking High pressure setup again to the North of the UK with dry and colder weather likely with time while the American models prefer to hold High pressure to the SE keeping milder winds wafting over the UK supported well by the GFS Ensembles. So it's a case of take your pick which evolution you support today as either one could conceivably happen. The one constant between all models is that it looks like becoming largely dry which will be a relief to many stricken by waterlogged fields as the drainage and evaporation processes look quite able to take place.

Incidentally, those trying to view my forecasts on my website will notice they have not been updated since yesterday morning. My web hosting company has a server issue linked to my site and are supposedly working on it. Needless to say that I will be pestering them again through today. The live parts of the site are working fine though. Apologies for the inconvenience.

[SMU]

Morning All-

Well, have the ECM /UKMO got that black & decker out & screwed the last Rivit down on the GFS coffin for the winter, if so what a shocking winter performance from that model- notably its down with the GONAPS model in 6 day stats at the mo.

OF course we cannot quite cast the GFS to sea just yet, but I would say the probabilities & odds of it varifying have now lengthened to around 15% - or 7/1.

UKMO cracker at 144

Point of note **** watch the shortwave modelling - currently modelled out east past Germany- often these are further SW with time as the models get a grip on their track- rem feb 09. ****

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?13-06

Lastly the ECM has the same track & great ridge as the UKMO however at day 10 its eroded the block in the wrong place

http://www.meteociel...1-240.GIF?13-12

We got to see how the trough coming across the pole manifests- we need it further east, if it cuts across into greenland instead of Scandi we will end up with a cold UK high-

Anyway 10 days a long long way away- lets get the 3 agreed at 72 on that wedge first.

S

Edited February 13, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Simonl]

A few things to note this morning .

The ECM again has the PV dropping toward to us from the pole , it looks vicious , and with it associated very very cold air .

The other thing, the gfs ens , are now hinting at mojor cold outbreak , the op was an outlier for Gloucestershire Throughout , and there is some ens now dropping through the roof . This happens in the past leading to something big.

I'm becoming more confident by the day.

I like those charts too. But doesn't the GFS look tame in comparison or is that just my novice take on things? lol

[Methuselah]

I think I'll just take solace in the fact that, whatever 'epicness' any particular model might be showing, the weather will just do whatever it does...For all the 'stellar runs' we've seen, so far this winter, none has actually materialized...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs is coming under attack again for showing a mild outlook, it has been the trend of the last few days for it to show a mild settled outlook and the 00z is no exception, temps around 11c on saturday but nearer 12-13c across southern britain on sun/mon and plenty more mild days next week with a light to moderate breeze from the south or southwest, the cold block is much further east on the gfs with atlantic lows not far to the west and generally high pressure just to the southeast creating that pleasantly mild flow. The other side of the coin is the ecm which shows a cold trend from later in the weekend onwards as we quickly pick up a SEly continental flow although the ecm 00z looks a lot more high pressure dominated than the mega freeze 00z yesterday, so, the ecm would currently bring an increasingly cold and settled outlook, the gfs would be mild and mostly settled.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Gfs is coming under attack again for showing a mild outlook, it has been the trend of the last few days for it to show a mild settled outlook and the 00z is no exception, temps around 11c on saturday but nearer 12-13c across southern britain on sun/mon and plenty more mild days next week with a light to moderate breeze from the south or southwest, the cold block is much further east on the gfs with atlantic lows not far to the west and generally high pressure just to the southeast creating that pleasantly mild flow. The other side of the coin is the ecm which shows a cold trend from later in the weekend onwards as we quickly pick up a SEly continental flow although the ecm 00z looks a lot more high pressure dominated than the mega freeze 00z yesterday, so, the ecm would currently bring cold and settled outlook, the gfs would be mild and mostly settled.

The GFS is under 'attack' because it's been brutally crap in its N Atlantic modelling this winter.

[Methuselah]

The GFS is under 'attack' because it's been brutally crap in its N Atlantic modelling this winter.

And the others have been spot on??

[bluearmy]

Ecm mean coming into line with lower mean uppers advecting in later in the run. The jet way south into iberia. If ncep suite is right in the short term re a mildish few days coming up then i would make the most of them. Experience thus far this winter is that the milder days ahead of a return to cold tend to get whittled down as the ncep suite gets to grip with the energy headed se.

The mean upper ridge trending to be located scotland and ridging nw towards iceland. Massive spread on uppers around greenland as the model tries to work out if it will be a block or a vortex remnant in ten days time in that locale.

Edited February 13, 2013 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

Well ECM and UKMO are good though things don't go as planned later on in the ECM with the polar vortex straddling between Greenland and Siberia but things at that point will changes from run to run.

Though ensemble mean charts can be pretty pointless, the ECM at T144 shows very strong support for the operational

Op

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?13-12

Mean

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?13-12

At this stage this is probably the most important time frame, getting the high there to start with and see how things go from there

Edited February 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[UV-RAY]

I think I'll just take solace in the fact that, whatever 'epicness' any particular model might be showing, the weather will just do whatever it does...For all the 'stellar runs' we've seen, so far this winter, none has actually materialized...

Indeed RP, how many times has this forum gone into meltdown only to find the actual event is a non event. Back to the models and I'm actually looking forward to some dry and frosty weather which the ECM is suggesting, I 'm not particularly bothered where the high sets up as long as it brings sunshine.

[Cheshire Freeze]

And the others have been spot on??

You're missing the point somewhat. As Steve M has pointed out it's meant to be a top 3 model yet on a couple of occasions the NOGAPS has spotted the potential before it has.......i.e last week RE energy distribution.

Can totally understand some people want mild/warmth but IMO it aint happening for a while yet based on hints by the top 2 performing models.

[Frosty.]

The GFS is under 'attack' because it's been brutally crap in its N Atlantic modelling this winter.

Let's wait and see what happens, the ecm has been performing better, no argument there but just because the gfs is showing mild doesn't mean it's wrong, and i'm still waiting for the first brutally cold spell this winter since non of that ecm super eye candy has made it even close to the reliable timeframe yet this winter!

Edited February 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[BM4PM]

I don't usually post so please be gentle , a nice big slice of PV coming are way for desert sounds very nice.BUT ecmwf has forecasted snowagedon a couple off times and it hasn't come off .just like gfs keeps forcasting 940mb stormagedon.maybe we should take deep breath and not get to excited .sorry to be down beat but this winters been a no show in my part of the world.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Today Uk Snow , later on it will be turn over in rain.

Than the snow come to the Netherlands NAE model projektion 10-20 mm snow for me

[Cloud 10]

The ECM and GFS 168hrs ensemble mean's illustrate the differences between the two models

perfectly.

ecm.. gfs..

Where to place my money..

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

[Methuselah]

You're missing the point somewhat. As Steve M has pointed out it's meant to be a top 3 model yet on a couple of occasions the NOGAPS has spotted the potential before it has.......i.e last week RE energy distribution.

Can totally understand some people want mild/warmth but IMO it aint happening for a while yet based on hints by the top 2 performing models.

Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Let's wait and see what happens, the ecm has been performing better, no argument there but just because the gfs is showing mild doesn't mean it's wrong, and i'm still waiting for the first brutally cold spell this winter since non of that ecm super eye candy has made it even close to the reliable timeframe yet!

There's a difference though in taking a 216/240 hrs chart at face value and looking at the more holistic picture. In the crucial 96-192 hrs timeframe the ECM has out performed the GFS In every way IMO.

I used to be a big GFS follower myself. Now I check for reference.

[BM4PM]

The ECM and GFS 168hrs ensemble mean's illustrate the differences between the two models

perfectly.

ecm.. gfs..

Where to place my money..

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

I got cold just looking at the that ECM chart,had to look at the gfs quick before I caught hypothermia .

[weather eater]

You're missing the point somewhat. As Steve M has pointed out it's meant to be a top 3 model yet on a couple of occasions the NOGAPS has spotted the potential before it has.......i.e last week RE energy distribution.

Can totally understand some people want mild/warmth but IMO it aint happening for a while yet based on hints by the top 2 performing models.

Not fussed about mild/warmth but some winter sunshine would be nice, yet again it’s not always a case of either or. Mega cold and snow would be great, but cold and bright will do just fine. I would agree about the GFS, I’ve said so plenty of times, but when it comes down to projected epic synoptics the other models have been just as poor, I expect the current modelling to go the same way, the GFS will stay poor and the ECM will back off from the idea of a GH and frigid easterly’s.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

Well personally I've seen more snow falling this winter than the last 3 combined, this allied with the deepest snowfall in 10 years+ Certainly stellar here in Jan. The pretty pictures you speak of have always been out in the realms of FI so to pin hopes on them occurring at that range is foolhardy anyway.

The other models have only been poor if you take 192+ seriously. The GFS has had things mismodelled at 72!

Edited February 13, 2013 by CreweCold