Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

So GFS 06z is turning.

Nogaps 00z en 06z is ok for the cold solution set up.

Ukmo 00z is Ok.

EC 00z oper is Ok ,.

EC ensemble is ok.

Ok en in combination with alle together with previous runs from the exmwf , anomalie charts , .i can say now for sure without a schadow of a doubt that i am within a reach of point for no return.

I can predict now a major set up for the UK en West Europe for wintry cold weather with also snow events for the the rest of februari starting next week until te rest of the month.

CFS projektion also a cold snow march episode with interlude s .

I also expect on basis from NAO/AO /MJO/GWO a surpise a wintry suprise for Brittain in the month of March 2013.

Alle together i say , we have seen nothing yet, the best days of wintry weather has yet still to come.

All together i can make a vision /a MAJOR BREAKTROUGH is coming at the wetter patterns near

Greenland /Iceland , Finaly.

The bonus , the jackpot i hope so .

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest from twitter

18 EC ENS members showing a cold E'ly becoming more of a NE'ly which is the dominant synoptic type between the 21st and the 23rd of Feb.

And before anyone moans, why should pro forecasters have to give a reason behind there tweets!!. Surely the whole point of working for a weather forecasting company is not to make your forecasts freely available to the public - they are a business after all and the whole point is to make money and not make us snow fanatics happy.

Edited February 13, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[sundog]

I think the models are fairly satisfactory atm if looking for cold nothing more,they show potential of course but they have been showing potential and sometimes great potential many times during this winter for it never to be properly realized so that makes me a tad sceptical. Maybe just maybe they are onto something this time with the PV on the move and things becoming more blocked etc with hopefully the blocking moving into a favourable location,time will tell.

[Methuselah]

Latest from twitter

18 EC ENS members showing a cold E'ly becoming more of a NE'ly which is the dominant synoptic type between the 21st and the 23rd of Feb.

And before anyone moans, why should pro forecasters have to give a reason behind there tweets!!. Surely the whole point of working for a weather forecasting company is not to make your forecasts freely available to the public - they are a business after all and the whole point is to make money and not make us snow fanatics happy.

Shortwaves at the ready!

Edited February 13, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Frosty.]

Changes on the Gfs 06z from early on, the weekend a degree or so cooler than the 00z which is negligable since the 00z was showing 11-12c and this run shows 10-11c but into next week, the first half of next week is also on the mild side but the 6z then switches to the ecm trend, albeit a lot slower than the ecm but a broadly similar evolution further into FI, the 6z ultimately fails to deliver anything of note since the high pressure doesn't retrogress and we don't benefit from that cold plunge as a trough slips southeast through scandinavia, nice try gfs, better than 00z at least and second half of next week onwards would at least be rather colder with frosty nights and maybe a few wintry showers but mostly anticyclonic with lots of sunshine.

[AWD]

Comparing the 0z GFS Op run to the EC ens suggests the GFS is not supported by the vast majority of EC ens members;

A good cluster of members now showing a cool down next week, with the ECM Op run amongst them.

[phil nw.]

The 00z London Ens

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

much depends on the subsequent placement of the building high next week.

The ECM Op at this stage showing a colder trend in week 2 with the earlier introduction of continental cold-both runs look dry though.

If we can get the blocking further NW then still a chance of something better for more widespread cold and snow.

[Rnewbs]

Latest from twitter

18 EC ENS members showing a cold E'ly becoming more of a NE'ly which is the dominant synoptic type between the 21st and the 23rd of Feb.

And before anyone moans, why should pro forecasters have to give a reason behind there tweets!!. Surely the whole point of working for a weather forecasting company is not to make your forecasts freely available to the public - they are a business after all and the whole point is to make money and not make us snow fanatics happy.

so thats 18 out of 51 members. Think we need to wait and see if the others decide to switch sides

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

so thats 18 out of 51 members. Think we need to wait and see if the others decide to switch sides

Maybe 33 showing heatwave SW'erlys

[Tamara]

The EPS have already been posted, but they are rather pleasant on the eye imo it has to be said and plenty show support for a favourable block shape and pattern. In my humble little opinion it looks better than 18 in terms of potential Another train journey and the travelling should be fun, but chances of actual arrival? Well, I would say quite reasonable at this time The GFS is showing signs of adjusting its over zealous jet stream estimations once more, and what I think continues to underpin wintry possibilities is the excellent support from the UKMO for the colder ECM scenario of the cold air backing west and south from NE Scandinavia and Western Russia. The UKMO at t144 is heading that way with the shape of the High and the trajectory of the CAA heading south westwards through central europe and into the low countries

Viel Glück, hoffentlich

Edited February 13, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Frosty.]

So by the look of it, the gfs is probably playing catch up again, having said that, I would rather have what the ecm 00z was showing yesterday than today since yesterday it was showing a dec 2010 type pattern evolving and today it just looks cold and blocked with high pressure(s) in control, although, getting the cold air in place is the most important requirement, the high only needs to move slightly to open up much more wintry opportunities.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[Methuselah]

So by the look of it, the gfs is probably playing catch up again, having said that, I would rather have what the ecm 00z was showing yesterday than today since yesterday it was showing a dec 2010 type pattern evolving and today it just looks cold and blocked with high pressure(s) in control, although, getting the cold air in place is the most important requirement, the high only needs to move slightly to open up much more wintry opportunities.

I agree, Frosty...But, aren't all of the models trying to keep up with the weather?

[Tim Bland]

My Main concern is that although the ECM is probably more on the money here, that it will downgrade to a very slack easterly and we will be cold and dry. Theres no room for downgrades on the ECM. As per last time what we often see is the ECM leads the way and the GFS gradualy catches up with the ECM howver the ECM get gradualy watered down. At the moment all I can see is the option of average and dry or cold and dry.

[Tamara]

Comparing the 0z GFS Op run to the EC ens suggests the GFS is not supported by the vast majority of EC ens members;

A good cluster of members now showing a cool down next week, with the ECM Op run amongst them.

Yes, I'm rather basing my thoughts on the cluster of colder solutions perhaps heading the pattern in terms of trend, and being the tighter group amidst the wide scatter. I think the scatter represents the fine line between the High being closer to the UK or being closer to Iceland...and still pulling west

[Frosty.]

I agree, Frosty...But, aren't all of the models trying to keep up with the weather?

Yes RP, all the models are playing catch up with the weather, but the ecm is better at it than gfs, generally.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[Captain Shortwave]

My Main concern is that although the ECM is probably more on the money here, that it will downgrade to a very slack easterly and we will be cold and dry. Theres no room for downgrades on the ECM. As per last time what we often see is the ECM leads the way and the GFS gradualy catches up with the ECM howver the ECM get gradualy watered down. At the moment all I can see is the option of average and dry or cold and dry.

True, my focus is on the t120 to t144 mark, get the high in place to our north and see what the polar vortex wants to do, if it follows the op and drops over Greenland and Scandinavia giving a nice impressive block over Canada and leaves us dry and cool then it's bums luck. But if it falls over Siberia/Scandinavia then we could be in big time

[phil nw.]

Just to illustrate why some of us are not yet too upbeat with even the ECM Op -if looking for a proper cold and snowy spell.I should add this is more likely to be useful to newer members.

I have at random picked this Feb.2005 setup where the High was in the right place and orientated in such a way to advect the coldest air from the NE and the E around the block.

Now compare the 00z ECM at T240hrs.

We can see whilst still quite cold the block is further south and the coldest air misses the UK and goes into France and further east-drier too.

The pattern is still to evolve of course and maybe the block will regress further north west in time but i hope i have shown here why my recent post was perhaps a little less than enthusiastic.

Let`s hope for some improvements in later runs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree, Frosty...But, aren't all of the models trying to keep up with the weather?

With weather that hasn't happened yet? We're all trying to do that. Re ECM at t240 not being that good, it isn't BUT its what is happening before is of more relevance IMO and is better. And the chart of the day thus far is what UKMO now shows at t120-144. That is quite neartime and is looking very good. GFS is for sure edging that way.

BFTP

Edited February 13, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

Even allowing for the fact that there are many more ECM ensembles compared to the GEFS theres still a huge discrepancy in terms of the ratio bringing colder weather to the UK.

Looking upstream American forecasters continue to predict a very active stormy period for the eastern and ne USA so this would suggest amplified troughing setting up there, this generally helps to sharpen any troughing west of the UK so some digging se of energy towards Iberia looks a good bet.

I think the question isn't so much will high pressure become the key feature but where exactly does it set up and will troughing drop south further east to inject some colder upper air into the circulation, and will that get advected west towards the UK or will it head into mainland Europe.

This is often the problem for the UK with this type of set up as the cold pooling is relatively narrow so the models can have the cold hitting at day 8 but with margin for error that can easily get shunted further south.

So I think theres a decent trend to drop temperatures with some sort of continental flow but still a big question mark as to how the UK can tap into the coldest source of air.

[Frosty.]

I've had a good read through of all the posts so far today and come to the conclusion that it will definately turn cold again next week, the issues that remain are how cold and how long would it last, the type of blocking being indicated, especially from the ecm suggests a prolonged cold spell but we need an injection of low pressure in there if we are to have a very cold and snowy spell, currently it looks more anticyclonic with frosts becoming widespread and severe, at least a few milder days to come, probably more than just a few but beginning to trend colder again from early next week?

[Tom Quintavalle]

The EPS have already been posted, but they are rather pleasant on the eye imo it has to be said and plenty show support for a favourable block shape and pattern. In my humble little opinion it looks better than 18 in terms of potential Another train journey and the travelling should be fun, but chances of actual arrival? Well, I would say quite reasonable at this time The GFS is showing signs of adjusting its over zealous jet stream estimations once more, and what I think continues to underpin wintry possibilities is the excellent support from the UKMO for the colder ECM scenario of the cold air backing west and south from NE Scandinavia and Western Russia. The UKMO at t144 is heading that way with the shape of the High and the trajectory of the CAA heading south westwards through central europe and into the low countries

Viel Glück, hoffentlich

Quite agree with that Tamara and couldnt have said it better myself, infact I couldnt period!

Even though mein Grossvater was from Dortmund!

Cheers,

Tom.

[That ECM]

If this output was showing at beginning of winter, I would be very enthused as I am sure there would be more opportunities further down the line. However we are not and as such we will need a direct hit this time around.

Will we get it? Personally, I think cool and predominately dry would be my guess with the pressure not quite getting far enough north. Cool dry and a reaquantance with the big yellow disc occasionally.

Now that prediction should sort out the 12zs and I await watching the pressure move north west dragging in a raging easterly and connective showers just to prove me wrong.!! There is logic in there somewhere, honest.!

Edited February 13, 2013 by That ECM

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well all I can say is the Gfs Ensembles don't seem to support any Arctic outbreak 850's wise , I was surprised When I just looked at the ECM , although I haven't seen any of the other runs for the last couple of days so don't shoot me down, I would suggest the GFS is going for High pressure over the country with 850's around +2 , And ECM is going for an Undercut with pressure rising further North.. The battle starts at +144 so UKMO tonight may also give some indication.

[Frosty.]

Well I have to say the metoffice update didn't sound particularly anticyclonic to me, nothing like a classic high pressure dominated pattern, but interestingly, later in the month they say becoming more unsettled and in the same period, frosts becoming more widespread with rather cold days, which suggests to me a cold showery pattern from the east or north later in the month, not much mention of snow although turning more unsettled from the middle of next week in the north/nw with rain, sleet and hill snow and a few wintry showers for the se before then trending rather colder and unsettled with widespread frosts, into march and it's no surprise that they would indicate temps returning to average by mid march, since it's mid march and the sun is a lot stronger by then. So, not quite what I was expecting, not really what the ecm and gfs ops are showing in FI.

[Snow Run]

Just to illustrate why some of us are not yet too upbeat with even the ECM Op -if looking for a proper cold and snowy spell.I should add this is more likely to be useful to newer members.

I have at random picked this Feb.2005 setup where the High was in the right place and orientated in such a way to advect the coldest air from the NE and the E around the block.

Ah yes, remember it well, as you'll note from my signature. A couple of days prior to that, the cold air from an ENE direction brought a 2 hr period of snow across the SE - just enough to cancel our event.

Five years later, the mother of all GFS dartboard lows actually verified, and although widespread damage was caused across Northern France (depression 'Xynthia' is still featured on its own page on Meteociel), we managed to hold the race.

So, with deference to Sod's Law, I can say with some personal confidence that winter may have a few more cards to play - most probably at 10am on Sunday 24th February.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Howey