Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[bradymk]

Downgrade from 00z which had -8 widely at 144hrs.

At 144 hrs uppers may be not as cold but i am more concerned with the overall run and i think in some way the 12z is better. Uppers not so important in this setup as long as France, Germany etc have low temps/dp's.

Edited February 15, 2013 by bradythemole

[Tim Bland]

It's usual case of dangle the carrot then water it down as it gets closer. Seen it many times this winter from the ECM especially with easterlies

[Rocheydub]

I think the ecm is just getting worse run by run in my opinion'!!especially 850s wise!!this morning it was showing 850s of -8 to -10 around 144 hours amd now its just shlwing -6!!what the hells happening!!

YES LETS PANIC.

Seriously though, there will be differences from run to run until it gets to T-48 in the uppers, probably some upgrades and downgrades between now and T-0

[PolarWarsaw]

Poor run uppers wise - let's see what the rest brings. Could we be heading to the 'lesser' chilly spell Ian F was mentioning.

[Ian Brown]

Good agreement between ECM and GFS at T144.

[Summer Sun]

I think the ecm is just getting worse run by run in my opinion'!!especially 850s wise!!this morning it was showing 850s of -8 to -10 around 144 hours amd now its just shlwing -6!!what the hells happening!!

I have said from the start don't get excited about full on easterlies to t96 or lower other wise people could be disappointed, we are most likely going to get a south easterly with the coldest uppers in eastern europe

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?15-0

Anyone moans at that they need banning.

~523 THickness

in -5c Air

Dewpoints ~ -3 to -5c

Windchill ~ -10c

Snow in the South & SE.

with an undercutter on our doorstep.

Edited February 15, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's usual case of dangle the carrot then water it down as it gets closer. Seen it many times this winter from the ECM especially with easterlies

I'm not really interested in the 'pre easterly' anyway. There's only one way that high is headed at 144 and that's forced NW once those Atlantic lows undercut. The pattern before this was always just a means to an end for me.

[The Eagle]

Synoptically the ECM is good. Just struggling to propagate the cold upper temps further west.

[Ian Brown]

It's usual case of dangle the carrot then water it down as it gets closer. Seen it many times this winter from the ECM especially with easterlies

It's pointless looking at uppers at day 6, the orientation and position of the High will determine that.

[Summer Sun]

The coldest uppers are pushed away at t168

00z

Edited February 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[UV-RAY]

I think the ecm is just getting worse run by run in my opinion'!!especially 850s wise!!this morning it was showing 850s of -8 to -10 around 144 hours amd now its just shlwing -6!!what the hells happening!!

The same that's been happening throughout winter, ECM leads the way but the GFS is having none of it, then the GFS joins the party only for the ECM to start downgrading everything.

[Matty M]

0z ECM Eps did show number of outcomes with poor uppers, of corse cold at the surface but snow risk much reduced with this orientation.

[lord stratus]

Poor run uppers wise - let's see what the rest brings. Could we be heading to the 'lesser' chilly spell Ian F was mentioning.

Maybe but remember Ian F always sits on the fence for as long as possible!

[chris55]

The lack of a decent Med Low looks to be the problem on the ECM tonight, with regards to the colder 850s. But overall the pattern is good.

Edited February 15, 2013 by chris55

[Cheshire Freeze]

The lack of a decent Med Low looks to be the problem on the ECM tonight.

Some rather rash posters seem to be the problem tonight more like

[lord stratus]

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?15-0

Anyone moans at that they need banning.

~523 THickness

in -5c Air

Dewpoints ~ -3 to -5c

Windchill ~ -10c

Snow in the South & SE.

with an undercutter on our doorstep.

Not happy with that.

[Cloud 10]

-12 uppers into the South East at 144 hrs from the JMA...

[PB22]

Blimey, some of you really are spoilt nowadays. The ECM is a bitter run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021512/ECM1-168.GIF

Remember uppers aren't as important in an easterly.

[london-snow]

Seriously some stupid comments made in the last 10 mins.

Uppers will not be sorted right up until the event itself.

Its the general pattern you want to be watching and that is nothing short of fantastic.

Get a grip !

[Captain Shortwave]

Well lets have one good thing to say about this run, the sledgehammer lobe of polar vortex shown on the previous two runs has been removed which will prolong the lifespan the the high to our north. Uppers we can worry about when it's t92 or earlier

[UV-RAY]

Some rather rash posters seem to be the problem tonight more like

I remain unconvinced until we are at +48hrs, we've been here so many times this winter.

[Tamara]

I think there will be colder members on the ECM ensembles - the operational is still cold at the surface anyway...

The JMA is a real catch

Edited February 15, 2013 by Tamara Road

[nick sussex]

Putting aside Upperairgate!!! The ECM has better trough disruption to the west at 168hrs, you want to see elongation and not football shaped lows so its better than this mornings output.

[fergieweather]

Maybe but remember Ian F always sits on the fence for as long as possible!

As learned from experience..... we're not the Daily Express! Anyway, much could change on this one. No point in over-analysis at this range.