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March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

12z prediction

10Mar2013-16Mar2013

CET = 0.1C

Please...

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

coldest ever march in 1674 aprox 1.0 deg

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

March 1845 which produced the coldest CET daily mean (-6.5 C on 13th) had a subzero CET going from the 11th to the 22nd, the lowest point reached was -0.7 C on the 17th. The month ended at 2.0 C after some warmer weather arrived.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Please...

I'm sorry?

A reasonable prediction for the 7 day period from Sunday, which will is forecast to be exceptionally cold for the time of year.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I'm going to be wildly optimistic and point out that the last cold March we had was followed by the hottest month on record - 2006.

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IanR Seasoned

IanR

Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted

I'm going to be wildly optimistic and point out that the last cold March we had was followed by the hottest month on record - 2006.

Interesting see if that comes off, but one can only dream,(says me who hates extremes lol) but it would be good to see

What was the CET for March 2006 ?

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

I'm sorry?

A reasonable prediction for the 7 day period from Sunday, which will is forecast to be exceptionally cold for the time of year.

I think you have the wrong end of the stick. I was saying please because I want it to happen! Sorry for the confusion.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

I think you have the wrong end of the stick. I was saying please because I want it to happen! Sorry for the confusion.

Fair enough LOL

GFS isn't always great with it's surface temps prediction, but I think we can safely say it will be well below average for a few days from tomorrow.

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

March 2006 ended up 4.9C, off the top of my head. One of only 2 sub 5C Marches since the 80's, when we had 5!

like i said before in the 80s march was a winter month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Guest pjl20101

Guest pjl20101

Posted
Posted

Interesting see if that comes off, but one can only dream,(says me who hates extremes lol) but it would be good to see

What was the CET for March 2006 ?

It was 4.9 my friend.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

For those wondering if a cool March CET might lead to a better summer.

A few stats for March CETs below 5C and the following summers

Whole CET Record Following March CET < 5.0C

................ CET............. Average ..........Anomaly

Summer = 15.15C .........(15.30C) .......... -0.15C

June = .....14.19C .........(14.32C) .......... -0.13C

July = ......15.86C .........(15.95C) .......... -0.09C

August = .15.41C .........(15.63C) .......... -0.22C

1900 to 2012 CET Following March CET < 5.0C

.................. CET............. Average ..........Anomaly

Summer = 15.42C .........(15.41C) .......... +0.01C

June = .....14.16C .........(14.27C) .......... -0.11C

July = ......16.33C .........(16.14C) .......... +0.19C

August = .15.78C .........(15.83C) .......... -0.05C

There seems to be little link between cold March CETS and the following summer.

There's a slight hint of warmer Julys since 1900 though.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

Today's minimum is 4.6C while maxima were close to 6C earlier, remaining on 4.7C tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

4.5C to the 10th (2.4)

4.0C to the 11th (-0.9)

3.7C to the 12th (0.3)

3.6C to the 13th (2.2)

3.5C to the 14th (1.9)

3.5C to the 15th (3.5)

3.5C to the 16th (3.4)

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Today's minimum is 4.6C while maxima were close to 6C earlier, so an increase to 4.7C is likely tomorrow.

Its already at 4.7c to the 8th

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Its already at 4.7c to the 8th

oops

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted (edited)

These are the Central England Temperatures values that the GFS predicted on the 6th March, taken from Born From the Void's post (hope you don't mind).

4.8C to the 7th (8.6)

5.6C to the 8th (10.9)

5.9C to the 9th (8.0)

5.5C to the 10th (2.3)

4.9C to the 11th (-1.4)

4.5C to the 12th (0.7)

4.4C to the 13th (3.4)

The prediction was for 5.9C to the 9th, when in actual fact the figure has been much lower at 4.8C. A very large margin away from the actual value.

Edited by 22nov10blast
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March Blizzard Rising Star

March Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport
Posted (edited)

These are the Central England Temperatures values that the GFS predicted on the 6th March, taken from Born From the Void's post (hope you don't mind).

I noticed that. We should be comfortably sub 4C by Wednesday.

4.8C to the 7th (8.6)

5.6C to the 8th (10.9)

5.9C to the 9th (8.0)

5.5C to the 10th (2.3)

4.9C to the 11th (-1.4)I

4.5C to the 12th (0.7)

4.4C to the 13th (3.4)

The prediction was for 5.9C to the 9th, when in actual fact the figure has been much lower at 4.8C. A very large margin away from the actual value.

I noticed that, too. We should be comfortably sub 4C by Wednesday.

Edited by March Blizzard
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

These are the Central England Temperatures values that the GFS predicted on the 6th March, taken from Born From the Void's post (hope you don't mind).

4.8C to the 7th (8.6)

5.6C to the 8th (10.9)

5.9C to the 9th (8.0)

5.5C to the 10th (2.3)

4.9C to the 11th (-1.4)

4.5C to the 12th (0.7)

4.4C to the 13th (3.4)

The prediction was for 5.9C to the 9th, when in actual fact the figure has been much lower at 4.8C. A very large margin away from the actual value.

Probably more a reflection of GFS inaccuracies more than BFTVs. Although predictions in these situations are fraught with difficulties when 100 miles or a couple of hours timings diffences can make several degrees difference.

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hillbilly Accomplished

hillbilly

Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
Posted

just checked on met office historic data gives 1924 with most air frosts for march at 21... but coldest as 1947 average 1.75..............for this area

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