South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18/02/13 20z --->

[AWD]

A very quick look at the week ahead and a brief glance into next week too. A cold night is likely tonight, with temperatures away from the far SW likely to get down to near freezing and slightly below;

Whilst a frost can't be ruled out under any clearer skies, there looks to be a large amount of low cloud;

And foggy conditions developing across the West Country into central southern England;

Perhaps limiting a frost to more localised areas tonight. Tomorrow looks like another sunny and pleasent outdoors day. Whilst cloud maybe a nuisance over Devon & Cornwall at times;

areas further east look like having prolonged periods of sunshine, with temperature around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly below in some places;

Not quite as cold tomorrow night, with temperatures generally holding up just above freezing, although prone areas might dip a little below;

Probably due to increasing amounts of cloudcover;

Blown in on an increasing easterly influenced wind;

which after the passage of this front;

brings in increasingly colder, continental air to take us into the second half of the week ahead. Wednesday therefore looks a cloudy but dry day despite a weak front bringing colder air west, passing over us;

with an easterly wind;

lowering surface temperatures, although the colder air probably not reaching the far SW at this stage;

With clear skies for most Wednesday night;

areas sheltered from the easterly wind could see a rather prominent frost as temperatures look set to tumble in what looks to be the first of a series of cold nights;

Thursday is the first day the whole of the region looks set to feel the effects of the chilly, easterly wind, with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing in central, southern areas and only a few degrees above freezing along the coasts and down in the far SW;

as cold upper air (some of the coldest this winter incidentally) makes inroads into the region;

and with lowering Dewpoints and freezing values;

along with a significant windchill becoming increasingly evident;

It will start feeling rather bitter out. Importantly though it is dry still at this stage. I won't go into night time scenarios/frost etc now as any frost will depend on local nuances such as cloudcover and shelter from the easterly wind, which won't be forecastable with any degree of detail until much nearer the night in question. What I will say however, is anywhere that does see clear skies and a relaxation in the wind could see some very severe frosts as night minima take a tumble as shown below;

Like I said however, low night time minima alone doesn't guarantee a frost, local conditions will also have to be analysed nearer the time. Friday and the weekend continue in a similiar vein as Thursday, with varying degrees of cold around the region. Here are the daytime forecast temperatures for the 3 days;

Suggestive of a widespread struggle of nothing more than a degree or two above freezing away from coastal areas where another degree or two higher is likely. In some inland, rural locations I wouldn't be suprised to hear of Ice days being recorded. This is due to a cold, easterly pool of air over our region;

with low Dewpoints and freezing levels;

along with a bitter windchill at times;

making it feel rather raw out and about, especially in places prone to easterly winds. Now there has been a lot of chasing "snowfall" in the MOD thread, some of which I believe to be a little OTT. However, they are right in that mesoscale features can crop up at very onions notice so snowfall can't be ruled out yet. Based on current model data, it is looking predominantly dry for our area, with very little PPN/snowfall expected, and even less of a chance of anything significant. Depending on the exact wind source (whether it be south of east, a straight easterly or north of east) some favoured areas of our region cold see a flurry or two as shown by Ian's chart earlier;

The also shown by the GFS model;

However, I stress don't take these charts too literally. Both location and amounts will vary right up to T1, as these flurry nuances are extremely hard to pinpoint in any detail. I wood expect dry conditions and if you do see a flurry or two, count yourself lucky. Despite the GFS model showing something a little more organised at the 160+ hour timeframe, there is no reliable signal for any significant snowfall currently from the model data. Forget what the GFS shows in the medium range as this will change a lot in the coming days and is too far out to even consider for now.

That's this week in a nutshell anyway. A quick look at the GEFS ensembles for Somerset suggests a warm up to something nearer average in week 2;

Although of course, at this stage, confidence is lower as scatter increases. There is a strong signal for PPN to remain below average for the foreseeable;

As pressure remains higher than average for the foreseeable;

So despite the uncertainty with temperatures, there is actually some reasonable confidence of a prolonged, dry spell for our region. This would suggest a movement in the high pressure currently north of the UK and responsible for the imminent easterly feed. Perhaps less cold air filters around the high pressure cell and mixes out the cold upper pool;

Anyway, all a long way off yet and is likely to change. I won't bore you any further with long range detail currently as things long range, IMO, are even less clear than usual. For the timebeing expect another day or two at most of average, pleasent, sunny conditions before colder but dry weather engolfs our region in the later part of the week, through the weekend and into next week.

Any snowfall is a bonus, don't expect any!

Keep those scarfs and gloves out as they aren't done with just yet.

Thanks.

Edited February 18, 2013 by AWD

[A.J]

Ok, a shiny new thread for you all so please carry on here

Old thread here ---------> http://forum.netweat...z/page__st__720

moved AWD's excellent regional weather analysis for the next few days to this thread!

Edited February 18, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[khodds]

Blimey it's quiet on here... Everyone must be bored of winter now! I'm looking forward to this weekend, but a little worried that if it stays dry for the foreseeable (which will be good for flood hit areas) ie a dry spring, that we will go on to have another awful summer. Like last year. Hope not!

[MP-R]

Blimey it's quiet on here... Everyone must be bored of winter now! I'm looking forward to this weekend, but a little worried that if it stays dry for the foreseeable (which will be good for flood hit areas) ie a dry spring, that we will go on to have another awful summer. Like last year. Hope not!

There is hope at the end of the GFS runs

[cerneman]

Gritting lorries out and about tonight,,,,,,Temps here dropping 1.4c,,,,,,,,,,,

[karlos1983]

Blimey, mod thread has gone Thames Streamer crazy, Zzzzz

[khodds]

There is hope at the end of the GFS runs

Lol! It won't happen then!

[kent]

Shows how desperate things have become in the MOD thread when theyre arguing over the possibilty of a Thames streamer lol. At this rate anyone that finds a snowflake within the next 5 days or so could probably sell it on Ebay for a fortune.

[lfcdude]

Shows how desperate things have become in the MOD thread when theyre arguing over the possibilty of a Thames streamer lol. At this rate anyone that finds a snowflake within the next 5 days or so could probably sell it on Ebay for a fortune.

No... But maybe this... http://news.sky.com/story/1053694/green-space-slime-baffles-nature-experts

Snow can pop up from anywhere.. look at last week i think it was.. when we had a few hours of snow.. yeah wet rubbish.. but pretty to watch... As long as its cold.. Their is always hope.

[Nights King]

Frost setting in tonight. -0.9c

[Bumpkin]

Blimey it's quiet on here... Everyone must be bored of winter now! I'm looking forward to this weekend, but a little worried that if it stays dry for the foreseeable (which will be good for flood hit areas) ie a dry spring, that we will go on to have another awful summer. Like last year. Hope not!

Last year we only had one dry spring month, March was lovely. As soon as it turned into April it just piddled down for the rest of the year. Hope this dry spell stays for a while as I am noticing the ground is slowly becoming less squelchy each day. Going to take a few more weeks before I can walk across the fields without the feeling that I am going to sink.

I don't mind the cold, I'm just worried about the windchill. Its quite exposed out here and it is really painful when we get a bitter easterly wind whilst out in the fields. Think I might have to go shopping for long-johns and a balaclava.

Temp down to 1.8c and slowly dropping.

[jethro]

Looks like it's going to be rather chilly towards the end of the week, luckily it's been too soggy to clear the gravel paths and drive from weeds so I can legitimately break out the daddy of weed burners, get the paths clear and keep warm too Any keen gardeners or professionals out there...I can heartily recommend this http://www.harrodhorticultural.com/paraffin-flamegun-pid7802.html#product-tabs

[Costa Del Fal]

Tomorrows forecast now available at

cornwallweather.moonfruit.com including a new blog post for the week ahead

Well it took a while for the sunshine to get going here today, not till this afternoon but it was a day with lighter winds which was better. The next 2 days look to offer non stop sunshine though.

Edited February 18, 2013 by Blizzards

[divadee]

Harsher ground frost than we have had in weeks today. Lovely blue sky already but it's very cold.

Temp -3.5c dp -4c

[BARRY]

cold and frosty here blue sky and a bit of fog

[fromey]

Morning all, a bit colder than forecast -3.7c, another sunny day though.

fromey

[dec10snow]

:o BANK!

Edited February 19, 2013 by dec10snow

[dec10snow]

Anyway, very foggy here this morning, wasn't expecting fog this thick, visibility down to about 100m! And a good ground frost which is nice

Edited February 19, 2013 by dec10snow

[somersetsnow]

Lovely and Sunny! 0.4,clear blue Sky.................nice.

[davecornwall]

Beautiful here today. Off up country today, London, for a couple of days with my daughter as she's looking to get into St Martins Art College in September. Weather looks good there although it could be a bit nippy.

PS - having cut the grass yesterday the lawn looks lovely....probably need to cut the friggin thing again in two weeks if the sun stays out!!!!

[Wilxy]

Sunny start with patchy fog also quite frosty after a low of -3.5°C. current. -2.0°C

[jessandjon]

Lovely and sunny outside look like beach weather, until I step outside!!!

[Gibby]

A hazy but sunny start to the day here after a sharp frost at -3C. Should be a decent day today before we come to the cloudy and cold crud from the East tomorrow onwards. Current Conditions on my webcam image below.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/page9.htm

[cerneman]

-0.5c Very frosty, Sun just getting above the hills, See the contrails of passenger jets high in the blue sky,

[Lyn-M]

Thick fog here this morning, along with a frost. Glad that you can see blue skies, cerneman, as we are coming your way this aft and won't be much fun in fog!