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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Good evening.

A new thread to discuss the latest output.

Here to kick it off is the GFS12Z meteogram. I have indicated on this graph where the precipitation starts in relation to other criteria. On this run it would be a marginal snow event turning to rain at T+129.

post-4523-0-59237900-1361305695_thumb.gi

Not a lot showing on the ECM this evening as well. This is the best I could find on Sunday.

post-4523-0-00490200-1361305821_thumb.pn

As always keep on topic and be respectful and relevent.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Well. they may not be too much excitement in the next couple of weeks evident in the models after this weekend, but at least we haven't got any of that zonal rubbish......as demonstrated by the Arsenal defence for BM's second goal :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL

Well. they may not be too much excitement in the next couple of weeks evident in the models after this weekend, but at least we haven't got any of that zonal rubbish......as demonstrated by the Arsenal defence for BM's second goal laugh.png

Thats the only time this place has liked any post with the Z word in it. acute.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Just been examining a selection of f'cast profiles for later Friday coupled to the UK4-extended snow accumulation prognosis. Bearing in mind the low dewpoints by then, plus the fairly skinny CuSc tops up around -11C, the light snow signal can be assumed to be (a) reasonably prevalent despite the strong capping and likely to settle irrespective of small amounts falling. Effectively anywhere along the E coast prone to a cm or so, stretching inland along favoured topographic strips even across to Cotswolds; S of London down into W Sussex etc., with more widespread likelihood of flurries offering 1cm (in places perhaps 2)across E Yorks, Hull area, Lincs, Norfolk down across Cambs to Beds. Given good set-up for an English Channel shower band before the flow backs, by the end of Friday some snow likely even far away to high ground in the extreme SW, e.g., over Dartmoor.

Edited by fergieweather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Its several days away. There is clearly enough instability to provide some light snow. Some places could see an inch or two. Most places will see nothing. No point in speculating where it might snow on friday till thursday morning. Will probably come down to radar watching.

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Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

Thxs Ian always great insight , just one question and apologies if off topic but feel its model related , for the 1/2/09 snow event in the south east can you remember when the models the meto were using first picked up the signal that this could be a severe event regarding totals ( I got 10 inches the heaviest fall for me in london ever ) , I remember Jay presenting the forecast on that Sunday morning highlighting the threat but nothing proceeding that , it seemed the signal pop up 24 hrs before ?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Feb 09 was a very different set up. The channel disturbance was indeed picked up only 24 hours before but there was widespread snowfall forecast in any event. Just not the very heavy stuff which prompted a red warning for central southern england.

Sorry - wrong event! The feb 09 was a similar set up to now but the shortwave that hit us was followed by the models for several days before it arrived. a week or so before, there were runs which sent it north , others south but some struck us. However, arond three to four days before, it looked likely that it would indeed strike the uk. I do recall that it only homed in on the se 48/72 hours before. However, the cold pool heading into france this weekend has been modelled to do nothing else. If there were differing scenarios being played out then we could indeed wonder. However, thats not the case.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Latest UKMO fax charts:

T96hrs:

post-1206-0-84856700-1361311667_thumb.gi

T120hrs:

post-1206-0-72454500-1361311676_thumb.gi

Trough heading west towards the north at 96hrs, strong ene flow towards the south, unusual to see the 528dam that far south into Spain.

Depending on cloud cover could be some sharp frosts, more especially further north with a slacker flow.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Thxs Ian always great insight , just one question and apologies if off topic but feel its model related , for the 1/2/09 snow event in the south east can you remember when the models the meto were using first picked up the signal that this could be a severe event regarding totals ( I got 10 inches the heaviest fall for me in london ever ) , I remember Jay presenting the forecast on that Sunday morning highlighting the threat but nothing proceeding that , it seemed the signal pop up 24 hrs before ?

Remember it well. The shift in accumulation signal was picked-up well by UKV (then experImental) and MOGREPS , so UKMO amended and upgraded forecast accordingly. Different synoptics to next few days, however.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Not completely dry this run - and this is before the cold air leaves us:

post-4523-0-48910700-1361311838_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-16659800-1361311845_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-12449900-1361311856_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Not completely dry this run - and this is before the cold air leaves us:

post-4523-0-48910700-1361311838_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-16659800-1361311845_thumb.gi

post-4523-0-12449900-1361311856_thumb.gi

the Isle of Wight could have the golden ticket looking at those charts? A bit of activity in the channel!
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

the Isle of Wight could have the golden ticket looking at those charts? A bit of activity in the channel!

It's picking up on the Channel shower stream after the flow backs (see my earlier post). By Saturday the convection is deeper somewhat and thus propensity for snow showers (ie in strict sense, v flurries on Fri and Sun).

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Deep snow, thunderstorms, heatwaves
  • Location: Croydon

the Isle of Wight could have the golden ticket looking at those charts? A bit of activity in the channel!

Looks like the Cherbourg peninsula has hit the jackpot yet again

After getting a foot of snow in 90 mins at end of Jan looks like they are in the sweet spot again

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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Looks like the Cherbourg peninsula has hit the jackpot yet again

After getting a foot of snow in 90 mins at end of Jan looks like they are in the sweet spot again

but that might not need much to shift it to our shores?a few days to go yet....
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I remember the net weather radar echo for that - purple- 90mm rates.!!

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-180.png?18

Im sensing a spectaculat FI from the pub run-

S

Nice to see you coming round to the idea of retrogression Steve. Who knows if we'll acheive anything noteworthy or not

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Deep snow, thunderstorms, heatwaves
  • Location: Croydon

I remember the net weather radar echo for that - purple- 90mm rates.!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021918/gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Im sensing a spectaculat FI from the pub run-

S

That was spectacular, can't begin to imagine the intensity of that, was unreal watching it unfold on the radar

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon
  • Weather Preferences: Deep snow, thunderstorms, heatwaves
  • Location: Croydon

but that might not need much to shift it to our shores?a few days to go yet....

Fingers crossed, this weekend is probably our last chance of seeing any real lying snow this winter so it would be good to have one final good event before winter ends

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Posted
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Huntly, Aberdeenshire 123m ASL

Some changes showing on this run. Looks like the dams going to break and cold to the north will flood south.

Hi any charts showing this? pc giving me grief and cant get to see any myself

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