Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[Frosty.]

At least the models are showing a proper greenland high in FI and a southward surge of arctic air once our anticyclone eventually begins to wane, the gfs 06z again brings that cold air south but it's being stopped across the very far north with ridging bulging up from the south, it's only a matter of time before we get a gfs op run showing a screaming northerly, it's still only a low risk we will have an early march arctic outbreak but as teits said earlier, at least there is a chance of a clash over the uk of the arctic and atlantic airmasses and northern england but more especially scotland could be in for a snowy spell sometime in early march if this trend continues, I was also surprised to see the ecm change so much in FI between the 12z and 00z although since the ecm was indicating a much more potent cold spell recently and looking how much it's been reduced, maybe it's not such a surprise to see the ecm flip flopping in FI for a change.

[Frosty1]

possibly off topic so may be moved but......now FI is March could we stop assuming everyone likes cold.....like most on here I like cold in winter....but my ideal March day would be warm and sunny (im not alone in that at all)...so when I see post that says FI is an improvement...what does that mean....lovely sunny warm days...great......oh no the 'improvement' is a cold grey day with the outside chance of a sleet!

The cold assumption is acceptable Nov-Feb as pretty miuch everyone here wants cold then.....but in March and April....there maybe some die hards....but surely most want a bit of warmth by then.......

Ah no thanks, Cold & Snow any day till May.

[fergieweather]

possibly off topic so may be moved but......now FI is March could we stop assuming everyone likes cold.....like most on here I like cold in winter....but my ideal March day would be warm and sunny (im not alone in that at all)...so when I see post that says FI is an improvement...what does that mean....lovely sunny warm days...great......oh no the 'improvement' is a cold grey day with the outside chance of a sleet!

The cold assumption is acceptable Nov-Feb as pretty miuch everyone here wants cold then.....but in March and April....there maybe some die hards....but surely most want a bit of warmth by then.......

Yup, I think a fair and balanced approach now - with meteorological winter finishing shortly - is to open a new thread named "Spring Model Discussion: The Hunt for Heat", which seems only fair after innumerable weeks of cold-hunt bias. There must come a reasoned tipping-point whereafter the cold bias becomes ever-more tenuous versus a growing number of folk who'll start looking for the first springlike conditions to appear in models. Currently the wearying "this run is an improvement" stuff remains firmly entrenched in the cold camp and I suspect the mild-seekers fear getting flamed for wishing or suggesting the opposite. Mods: your thoughts?

Edited February 20, 2013 by fergieweather

[weather eater]

You mean the one that's verifying?

Cold has upgraded over last day or so and some very low daytime maxima coming up and I wouldn't be surprised to see a vast improvent on 1cm of snow predicted. For anyone that thinks this spell won't be in bitterly cold category [particularly for the southern half] they'll will be way off the mark. Further signs now of the models picking up on the HP moving west and finally we see HP develop to our NW and a potential prolonging of this cold spell well into March. The SW flow developing in 7days time [tweeted recently wasn't it? Although I'm no fan of twitter as not much can be said on it] seems off the mark looking at the models as that would make the SW flow arriving in 5/6 days time?

All to play for in a last hoorah of winter

BFTP

I don’t think there is any doubt the next few days are going to feel cold, raw would be a good word to use, especially on the east coast, it’s not exactly warm here in High Peak today, 3c and a cold wind. However the 06z continues what is now a long run on the GFS where the pattern evolves into a west based NAO, possible cold for the North, a warmer more SWly regime in the South, there appears to be a clear signal for this as the GFS has been really bullish about it, the ECM at 240hrs now picking this up. Of course model output at that range is subject to much revision, but nevertheless the evolution at the moment seems a clear and undeniable trend.

A proper raw easterly is a real blast from the past its shame that snow amounts, are likely to be minimal especially for those of us who are really after something memorable and not just some light snow, even a moderate snow doesn’t really float my boat but good luck to anyone who sees some.

To Nicks earlier post about downgraded easterlies, indeed the ECM did have a run of four belters, big GH and all the rest. It’s a plus and a minus setup for me, we will get a proper raw easterly, stand on the beach in Gt Yarmouth and boy is it going to feel cold. However, the minus is that it will still fall behind the hoped for expectations , still winter 2013/14 may tick all the boxes as we do appear to be in a run of better winters for cold prospects, maybe that will help Rodgers prediction rate.

Edited February 20, 2013 by weather eater

[Barry12]

The last few days here were sunny and spring-like, now we've got the Easterly it's cloudy and chilly..I know which I'd prefer.

oh and Fergie the vast majority do want warmth after May onwards, but until then your going to have to wait

[cerneman]

Yup, I think a fair and balanced approach now - with meteorological winter finishing shortly - is to open a new thread named "Spring Model Discussion: The Hunt for Heat", which seems only fair after innumerable weeks of cold-hunt bias. There must come a reasoned tipping-point whereafter the cold bias becomes ever-more tenuous versus a growing number of folk who'll start looking for the first springlike conditions to appear in models. Currently the wearying "this run is an improvement" stuff remains firmly entrenched in the cold camp and I suspect the mild-seekers fear getting flamed for wishing or suggesting the opposite. Mods: your thoughts?

Actually posted something same on South west regional thread, We are heading towards seasonal change, Nice to see if models start to reflect this. Edited February 20, 2013 by cerneman

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Yup, I think a fair and balanced approach now - with meteorological winter finishing shortly - is to open a new thread named "Spring Model Discussion: The Hunt for Heat", which seems only fair after innumerable weeks of cold-hunt bias. There must come a reasoned tipping-point whereafter the cold bias becomes ever-more tenuous versus a growing number of folk who'll start looking for the first springlike conditions to appear in models. Currently the wearying "this run is an improvement" stuff remains firmly entrenched in the cold camp and I suspect the mild-seekers fear getting flamed for wishing or suggesting the opposite. Mods: your thoughts?

Thoughts will be turning to next winter 2013/2014 after the mayday bank holiday . Only messing.

If you stick around all year - there will be lots of tumble weed blowing around the thread but not any toys

Edited February 20, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Methuselah]

CFS already picking-up on good NB, for November: http://www.netweathe...280890911846b47

Edited February 20, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Harsh Climate]

I for one haven't given up the hunt for deep snow or severe cold just yet, not with charts like this popping up from time to time

Yes it's FI and not quite ideal for the UK, but a few changes and something like that could develop that into something quite worthwhile! Some of the biggest UK snowfalls have come in march along with some very notable cold spells, so not until April will I be looking for warmth..

Edited February 20, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Purga]

Some very tastey ens members - my favourites are:

Most trending to warmer unfortunately but a significant degree of uncertainty later on.

Edited February 20, 2013 by Purga

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I for one haven't given up the hunt for deep snow or severe cold just yet, not with charts like this popping up from time to time

Yes it's FI and not quite ideal for the UK, but a few changes and something like that could develop that into something quite worthwhile! Some of the biggest UK snowfalls have come in march along with some very notable cold spells, so not until April will I be looking for warmth..

The trouble is with March snowfalls especially down South is that as soon as the sun comes up it melts rapidly, that's my own experience of March snowfalls anyway

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don’t think there is any doubt the next few days are going to feel cold, raw would be a good word to use, especially on the east coast, it’s not exactly warm here in High Peak today, 3c and a cold wind. However the 06z continues what is now a long run on the GFS where the pattern evolves into a west based NAO, possible cold for the North, a warmer more SWly regime in the South, there appears to be a clear signal for this as the GFS has been really bullish about it, the ECM at 240hrs now picking this up. Of course model output at that range is subject to much revision, but nevertheless the evolution at the moment seems a clear and undeniable trend.

A proper raw easterly is a real blast from the past its shame that snow amounts, are likely to be minimal especially for those of us who are really after something memorable and not just some light snow, even a moderate snow doesn’t really float my boat but good luck to anyone who sees some.

To Nicks earlier post about downgraded easterlies, indeed the ECM did have a run of four belters, big GH and all the rest. It’s a plus and a minus setup for me, we will get a proper raw easterly, stand on the beach in Gt Yarmouth and boy is it going to feel cold. However, the minus is that it will still fall behind the hoped for expectations , still winter 2013/14 may tick all the boxes as we do appear to be in a run of better winters for cold prospects, maybe that will help Rodgers prediction rate.

W E

I Disagree. it will be cold, not just feel cold. It 'feels' cold today at 5c. Also as you say the -NAO and GHP is well into FI and detail is well up for change. West based -NAO could be in the offing and would support a 'quick switch' to warm conditions....but not for a while yet IMO.....I think we'll be well into March by then.

BFTP

Edited February 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

possibly off topic so may be moved but......now FI is March could we stop assuming everyone likes cold.

Moved to here Chris:

[Tom Jarvis]

well upgrades allready on the gfs 12z things allready 50 miles futher north at 30h

[Coast]

Yup, I think a fair and balanced approach now - with meteorological winter finishing shortly - is to open a new thread named "Spring Model Discussion: The Hunt for Heat", which seems only fair after innumerable weeks of cold-hunt bias. There must come a reasoned tipping-point whereafter the cold bias becomes ever-more tenuous versus a growing number of folk who'll start looking for the first springlike conditions to appear in models. Currently the wearying "this run is an improvement" stuff remains firmly entrenched in the cold camp and I suspect the mild-seekers fear getting flamed for wishing or suggesting the opposite. Mods: your thoughts?

I suspect the threads for model output discussion may well be titled 'Spring' when we approach that point (shortly as you say). Perhaps if we leave out 'hunting' for any form of weather in the title, this may guide people's analysis to discuss and interpret the actual output and what it shows, rather than what they are hoping for synoptically. As many members aren't up to speed on models, they are looking for a view from the experienced people that is unbiased I guess, much like your own

[weather eater]

W E

I Disagree. it will be cold, not just feel cold. It 'feels' cold today at 5c. Also as you say the -NAO and GHP is well into FI and detail is well up for change. West based -NAO could be in the offing and would support a 'quick switch' to warm conditions....but not for a while yet IMO.....I think we'll be well into March by then.

BFTP

Fred yes cold, and feel cold, maybe I should have made that more clear, I doubt very much well into march, start of more likely, also depending on cloud cover, once we lose that strong east wind day temps will not feel too bad, if and when the sun gets out, but still cold at night with potentially sharp frosts, again dependent on cloud cover, certainly a pretty cold next seven days, not bad but not a severe spell.

Edited February 20, 2013 by weather eater

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013022012/gfs-0-66.png?12

PERFECT ALLIGMENT FOR THE SE CREW!

THAMES CONVERGENCE

[Jason M]

Maybe 20th Feb is a bit early for 'the hunt for summer'

Joking aside though I can understand the sentiment. I suspect the situation will resolve itself naturally over the coming days as we begin to see the traditional dramatic throwing in of towels from a lot of coldies. Its a netweather tradition.

From looking through the ensembles this morning we really do look like heading down the west based -NAO route later next week. I always think that if the weather did irony it would usually show as a west based -NAO. Its also bad news at this time of year as lowish uppers, lowish pressure and increased solar input running into March starts to put us in line for lots of heavy rain showers. We could of course get the arctic northerly with -12 uppers and snow, but i cant remember ever seeing uppers as cold as that in march and as such i think its very unlikely to occur on this basis (not impossible though).

Lots of interest over the weekend though with many places getting a few cms a snow. My own sense has been that over the last couple of days there has been a slight uptick in snowfall amounts, albeit its very difficult indeed to predict with any certainty this far out.

Jason

[IDO]

A heavy band of snow just across the Channel on the 12z from GFS on Sunday:

A bit further north and the far SE may get some moderate snow.

[That ECM]

Where is our friends int se, GFS upto now is looking good for some snow in your area. Wish I could post charts but I am unable to.

[southbank]

defo a small upgrade on PPN amounts on saturday and into sunday , however we know how the GFS over plays these so it be interesting to see Ian in puts regarding the Meto Models to see if they see any uptick , they have been saying a few cm in some places already

[IDO]

Snow window in the SE short lived as dewpoints rise as early as Sunday: So heights needed from then on.

[itsnowjoke]

Thoughts will be turning to next winter 2013/2014 after the mayday bank holiday . Only messing.

If you stick around all year - there will be lots of tumble weed blowing around the thread but not any toys

my brains now a tumble weed after this Epic winter and all the charts surfing and post reading, my wife cant wait for spring then i might pay her more attention. Edited February 20, 2013 by itsnowjoke

[rory o gorman]

for any convective weather junkies the season is only starting. true weather weenies are more then just snow. Looking like a super blocked pattern setting up with the trough persisting over France and unusually strong heights building to the north. Looking like a dry few weeks.

[weather eater]

Better chances of some snow for the SE on this run, I’m really glad for them as the North has not done badly this winter, however, they must still feel rather disappointed by the prospect of such moderate falls I’m sure that further upgrades will be more than welcome. Pretty amazing consistency from the GFS out to 162hrs on wetter and the 12 is very similar to the 06z, another west based NAO coming up I think.