nw australia Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone Rusty has formed, about 225 nautical miles north of Port Hedland, NW Australia. Rusty is a large storm, which has struggled to consolidate through it's time as an invest for this reason. However, convection is now concentrating nicely near the LLC which is tightening all the time. Deep convective bands surround the LLC. Rusty is forecast to move southwards to south-southeastwards over the next few days to a landfall near or just east of Port Hedland. It's important not to focus on the exact track for Rusty as it is such a large system and it's effects will be felt several hundred miles east and west of the landfall point. Intensification is expected, and it could be fairly rapid as shear is low, moisture is plentiful and sea temps are a very steamy 33C. JTWC expect a peak of 85kts before landfall, and BOM are going slightly higher at 90kts, which is interesting as JTWC use a 1 min sustained wind measurement and BOM use a 10 min sustained, which naturally should be a little lower. Massive rainfall amounts are expected for large swathes of the Pilbara coastline, and a significant storm surge is likely just east of the landfall point. Damaging winds are also a concern, particularly in the Port Hedland region. One to watch! The Australian season has finally awoken from it's slumber!

Edited February 24, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Rusty looking very impressive now, winds up to 45kts currently. The environmental conditions scream rapid intensification, and Rusty seems to be consolidating pretty quickly over the last 6 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Rusty has strengthened quickly, and sustained winds are now at 65kts. An eye is emerging from the central dense overcast. Rusty is expected to continue to ramp up quickly as it continues to edge it's way southwards towards landfall- which is still expected to be near Port Hedland.

[Somerset Squall]

Rusty has stalled just north of Port Hedland. The eye is clearing out nicely this evening, and sustained winds are now at 95kts, high end cat 2 on the SS scale. It is possible Rusty could attain cat 3 status before moving inland tomorrow. Significant storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains all remain a threat to a large portion of the NW Australian coast, but particularly to Port Hedland.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Rusty made landfall just east of Port Hedland yesterday afternoon. The system has moved well inland now and is decaying over the Western Australia interior.

[Styx]

Quite a media hoo ha about Rusty based on Oswalds ability to never say die, but out he goes without much fuss... A bit of talk about probable activity in the Coral sea over the coming few weeks, heard via a Met guy on the radio this morning. Very much not what Queensland could do with re recent flooding in that state.