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Tropical Cyclone 18 S


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Another tropical cyclone has formed in NW Australian waters, much further to the west than TC Rusty (which is threatening the mainland coastline). 18S is located near Cocos Island, and is currently causing some rain and wind here. 18S has a well defined but partially exposed LLC, with deep convection sheared to the west. Sustained winds are currently at 35kts. 18S is trapped between ridging to the north and south which is causing erratic and slow motion of the cyclone currently. Eventually, the northern ridge should win out and send 18S eastwards in a few days time. Although 18S is so far away from mainland Australia, NW Australia should still watch 18S as it is forecast to move eastwards a little closer to the mainland in a few days time. Where 18S will eventually end up is uncertain as it is still a long way off land.

The current shear is expected to ease. As 18S is also over warm water and will remain so for the next 5 days, 18S is forecast to strengthen decently as the shear lowers.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Shear remains high over 18S. As a result, the system is fighting for it's life. Intensity is still 35kts, and convection still remains detached from the increasingly distorted LLC. 18S has wobbled south in a weak steering environment, but should turn more firmly towards the east over the coming days. 18S could dissipate at any time, and if the shear doesn't ease soon, I'd put the chances of this happening as probable.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

18S has lost the battle, at least for now. The system was declared a remnant low yesterday. Today, all that remains is a naked LLC with little associated convection. Lukewarm sea temps and continued shear argue against redevelopment, at least in the near term.

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