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South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

Well I have been flipping around all the various weather websites all day so as confused as ever. All part of the fun I guess. I have seen predictions of between 0cms right up to 25cms with 50mph winds and blizzard conditions, and that just in our region. dirol.gif

Cracking open a beer if anyone cares to join me drinks.gif

id say that sounds about right rofl.gif

think i might join you if the fax charts change tonight laugh.png

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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted

Would love it if the Netweather forecast transpires as I'd be seeing 40mm of snow falling between Sunday night and Tuesday pm. Not sure on conversion rates but think it would be an OK result.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Would love it if the Netweather forecast transpires as I'd be seeing 40mm of snow falling between Sunday night and Tuesday pm. Not sure on conversion rates but think it would be an OK result.

Roughly about 40cm maybe a little more lol.

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kate1 Aficionado

kate1

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
Posted

I've always wondered, is the Netweather forecast just based on the GFS or does it have other input?

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Bluebreezer54 Seasoned

Bluebreezer54

Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
Posted

Thank you all who raised a glass. Cheers. Its been consistently rank all day here with grey sullen skies, persistent light rain and the temperature has been hovering around 9-10c since midnight last night. Thoroughly depressing weather.

I am still baffled and bewildered by the wildy varying snow forecasts for our region though. I fully understand that on our little island events will nearly always be marginal, but there is one heck of a difference between 0-25cms.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Just GFS.

you sure about that? so, stewart, (GP) ian, (TWS), nick f and the team just base their forecasts on one model (which is frequently slated on this forum)??

you could be right, but i doubt it...

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

you sure about that? so, stewart, (GP) ian, (TWS), nick f and the team just base their forecasts on one model (which is frequently slated on this forum)??

you could be right, but i doubt it...

I think the question was probably referring to the computer generated forecasts, rather than the written ones

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

you sure about that? so, stewart, (GP) ian, (TWS), nick f and the team just base their forecasts on one model (which is frequently slated on this forum)??

you could be right, but i doubt it...

I think they meant the will it snow app is connected to the GFS, not sure myself on that, but if I get the 30mm it's saying between sunday and tuesday, I will be very happy.

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Jan_Bromley Enthusiast

Jan_Bromley

Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
Posted

you sure about that? so, stewart, (GP) ian, (TWS), nick f and the team just base their forecasts on one model (which is frequently slated on this forum)??

you could be right, but i doubt it...

I think Kate was alluding to the automated forecast data on the homepage rolleyes.gif

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Thank you all who raised a glass. Cheers. Its been consistently rank all day here with grey sullen skies, persistent light rain and the temperature has been hovering around 9-10c since midnight last night. Thoroughly depressing weather.

I am still baffled and bewildered by the wildy varying snow forecasts for our region though. I fully understand that on our little island events will nearly always be marginal, but there is one heck of a difference between 0-25cms.

dont be baffled- snow is probably the hardest weather type to forecast. it is very much a 'nowcast' regarding amounts. streamers, for example, are almost impossible to predict. very similar to thunderstorms in that respect.

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted (edited)

I think Kate was alluding to the automated forecast data on the homepage rolleyes.gif

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1395;sess=

or this

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx2;sess=

or maybe the Christmas 'will it snow' shaker thing...smiliz39.gif

I believe the summary is written by humans and the automated is somewhat non-human (-:

Edited by Pixel
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Tom Quintavalle Maestro

Tom Quintavalle

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted (edited)

Those replays for the Snow Depth Cup then. Lottie of Folkestone is the only qualifier from the last round then and has to patiently wait for you other lot! wink.png

Leigh-on-Sea (E) (PAUL SHERMAN) v. South Ockenden (E) (CRAZY DIAMOND)

Little Wakering (E) (ESSEXGOONER) v. Rayleigh (E) (VESUVIUS)

Dartford (K) (CHARLTON KERRY) v. Addington (Sur) (SNOWBOB)

Barnet (H) (SUBURBAN STREAMER) v. Wimbledon (L) (LONDON SNOW)

Bromley (K) (JAN_BROMLEY) v. Uckfield (Sus) (TOM JARVIS)

Ongar (E) (JO S) v. Bushey (H) (SVALIJI)

Waltham Abbey (E) (JOHN MAC) v. N.W.Kent ? (KENTSPUR)

S.W.London (FLUID DYNAMIC) v. Northwood (L) (BLUEBREEZER54)

Swanley (K) (SNOWBLUES) v. Crayford (K) (MIKE STORM)

N.W.Kent (LAUREN) v. Welwyn (H) (PIXEL)

Bexleyheath (K) (SNOW RAVEN) v. Chigwell (E) (ARCHIESMUMMY)

FRIENDLY

West Ipswich (Suf) (CHRIS101) v. Rochester (K) (STEVIERAY1)

Regards,

Tom.

Edited by TomSE20
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

I think the question was probably referring to the computer generated forecasts, rather than the written ones

fair enough but i'm surprised they rely on the raw GFS model. its very good (despite what some say) but not down to the type of detail some people think. its a global model and needs human input to account for 'local' conditions (i.e. the met office)

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted (edited)

yayclapping.gif

Hey Tom can I add the depths i get in Manchester (have to visit this weekend) to the ones we get down here - or would that be cheating?

sorry laurenblush.png

Edited by Pixel
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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

heres my forecast

saturday turning colder

some showers possible through the day

saturday night

cold

some light showers possible

sunday

cold

showers of wintry nature possible

sunday night

some wintry showers possible and cold

monday

cold

some wintry showers possible some heavy

do you think i would get away with that

i am training to be a politician blum.gif

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Sussex Jules Community Regular

Sussex Jules

Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare
Posted

Would love it if the Netweather forecast transpires as I'd be seeing 40mm of snow falling between Sunday night and Tuesday pm. Not sure on conversion rates but think it would be an OK result.

Yes me too I especially like the torrential bit showing up again! That disappeared to just heavy on the 06z run but it's back again good.gif

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Guest bjaykent

Guest bjaykent

Posted
Posted

heres my forecast

saturday turning colder

some showers possible through the day

saturday night

cold

some light showers possible

sunday

cold

showers of wintry nature possible

sunday night

some wintry showers possible and cold

monday

cold

some wintry showers possible some heavy

do you think i would get away with that

i am training to be a politician blum.gif

I think you might find yourself forced to sit on a very sharp fence!
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Tom Quintavalle Maestro

Tom Quintavalle

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted

yayclapping.gif

Hey Tom can I add the depths i get in Manchester (have to visit this weekend) to the ones we get down here - or would that be cheating?

Only if you promise me a brown envelope! whistling.gif

Tom.

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted (edited)

Only if you promise me a brown envelope! whistling.gif

Tom.

it's in the post

heres my forecast

saturday turning colder

some showers possible through the day

saturday night

cold

some light showers possible

sunday

cold

showers of wintry nature possible

sunday night

some wintry showers possible and cold

monday

cold

some wintry showers possible some heavy

do you think i would get away with that

i am training to be a politician blum.gif

very diplomatic John.. you should write the met office 7 dayer!

'possible' is a lovely word - kind of positive me thinksbiggrin.png

Edited by Pixel
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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted

Yes me too I especially like the torrential bit showing up again! That disappeared to just heavy on the 06z run but it's back again good.gif

With the wind strength that's also showing we might be able to use the word blizzard without fear of widespread ridicule!rofl.gif
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Sussex Jules Community Regular

Sussex Jules

Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare
Posted

With the wind strength that's also showing we might be able to use the word blizzard without fear of widespread ridicule!rofl.gif

Well as one of the "ridiculers" I will have to check all the data before I can confirm such a thing!

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

heres my forecast

saturday turning colder

some showers possible through the day

saturday night

cold

some light showers possible

sunday

cold

showers of wintry nature possible

sunday night

some wintry showers possible and cold

monday

cold

some wintry showers possible some heavy

do you think i would get away with that

i am training to be a politician blum.gif

no john. you would have told everyone what they wanted to hear- that we would get 4 feet of snow lasting 2 weeks.... then, when of course it didn't happen, you would blame the previous government.

you could get a job writing the met office forecasts though.....biggrin.png

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kate1 Aficionado

kate1

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
Posted

I've always wondered, is the Netweather forecast just based on the GFS or does it have other input?

Just to elucidate, I did indeed mean the automated data forecasts - sorry for any confusion.

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