south pacific Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has formed in the central Coral Sea, with sustained winds of 35kts. The cyclone has deep, central convection and improving banding features. Sandra is positioned underneath an anticyclone, which is creating a low shear environment and enabling excellent radial outflow. As sea temperatures are also very warm, Sandra could strengthen fairly decently over the coming days. Currently, Sandra is moving eastwards along the south side of an equatorial ridge, but ridging to the east is expected to deflect the cyclone south-southeastwards in a couple days time. Track is uncertain, but New Caledonia need to be wary of Sandra as the current JTWC track puts Sandra close to the country as an intense cyclone in 5 days time.

[Snowman.]

Interesting...

[Somerset Squall]

Sandra is ramping up quickly. Sustained winds are now at 60kts. Deep convection continues to persist over the LLC, and an eye is beginning to form. Further rapid intensification is possible as shear remains low and outflow good. Sandra should begin the poleward turn over the next day or two, and Sandra is still.likely to graze New Caledonia by day 4-5.

[Somerset Squall]

Sandra has strengthened further, but at a slower pace over the last 24 hours. Intensity is at 70kts currently. Sandra has looked rather lop sided through the day with some very intense convection to the north of the developing eye and not much convection at all to the south of the eye. Over the last 6 hours, Sandra has become more symmetrical and the intense convection has now fully encircled the eye which is becoming better defined. Sandra could well make an upwards leap in intensity over the next 12 hours if this organisational trend continues. Shear is then expected to rise and sea temps cool a little as Sandra veers to the south to the west of New Caledonia. Sandra will still bring heavy rains and high winds here despite the fact it's not likely to make landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Sandra has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a 110kt cat 3 cyclone on the SS scale. The eye has cleared out and become better defined. Sandra is expected to become a cat 4 over the next 12 hours as shear remains low and outflow impressive in all quadrants. Thereafter, weakening will. occur as shear rises.

[Somerset Squall]

Sandra's peak was 110kts in the end. The cyclone is now weakening under strong northerly shear. Intensity is down to 85kts currently. The eye has become cloud filled and the convective canopy has shrunk.. Further weakening is expected as Sandra slips south out of the tropics. Sandra is expected to become an extratropical storm soon.

[Somerset Squall]

Sandra has become a 40kt extratropical storm. Sandra is brushing Lord Howe Island, Australia, and may impact New Zealand in a few days time as a significant extratropical system.