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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Ok, carry on here with your discussions for our wonderful region.

As ever, try and keep things on topic to help the thread flowing and respect other members viewpoints....thank you, & do come again good.gif

Oh yeah, before I forget, old thread here ------------->

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The latest GFS Operational shows near blizzard like conditions for parts of the SW on Monday;

post-12721-0-74805300-1362758418_thumb.j

Bitter, strengthening easterly winds;

post-12721-0-13402800-1362758441_thumb.j

And further snowfall;

post-12721-0-34575800-1362758466_thumb.jpost-12721-0-79629800-1362758471_thumb.j

This is one hell of a GFS Op run for the South West, especially given its March.

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Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest

Apart from snow risk for Sunday into Monday, I more concerned with the projected cold and windchill, Snowcover would help eliviate damage to young crops etc,

Maybe persuade my Postman not to insist on wearing his shorts all year round,,,,,,,That would be bonus

Edited by cerneman
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Looks like a ..... err.......... South of the M4 event;

post-12721-0-87041800-1362758875_thumb.j

Locally 10cm shown in prone areas by the GFS by noon Monday. ( Did I really say South of the M4? )

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Quite amazing to think what could happen in 48 odd hours time when it's currently so balmy across much of the region!

A little hazy sunshine has lifted the temperature to 12.4c in Warminster and other places further SW are nearing 15c, it' not inconceivable

that similar temperatures could happen in brightness tomorrow afternoon to the S/SW of the front that will be heading down from the NE. I

can see a temperature differential from, say, Gloucester at 7c at 15.00 tomorrow to Yeovilton at 14c.

Then of course the cold kicks in during Sunday and everywhere is sub zero with possible snow by Sunday night.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Seems to be a slight drift northward for the placement of the lp over the last few model runs, hope that trend continues.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I picked up the kids from school an hour or so ago and remarked the very same thing to the other half, it feels so mild out there, difficult to believe that winter may well be coming back with a vengence in the next 48 hours!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The UKMO model doesn't have the PPN quite as far north as the GFS, but we are talking fine detail here. It still shows some decent snowfall for southern coastal counties;

post-12721-0-28227400-1362759173_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Been a lovely day here in Falmouth although cloudy now. Really looks like snow for the whole SW on Monday even for the Isles of Scilly!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Looks like a ..... err.......... South of the M4 event;

post-12721-0-87041800-1362758875_thumb.j

Locally 10cm shown in prone areas by the GFS by noon Monday. ( Did I really say South of the M4? )

I don't recall ever being able to say that, I hope beyond belief that these charts verify, would be memorable to say the least!

Proceeding with caution, but as each run passing, expectation levels are rising!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Btw, a weather watch likely to be issued on my website later on this evening. Watch out for for details here later too. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Looky what might be on it's way Tuesday:

ph34r.png

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

Oh my days

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole

I can't help but do a snow jig!! It's going to be a long weekend seeing if we are going to get the good stuff!

Please snow gods let me have my first proper official snow day on my new job lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

I don't recall ever being able to say that, I hope beyond belief that these charts verify, would be memorable to say the least!

Proceeding with caution, but as each run passing, expectation levels are rising!

The last m4 south snow event I can remember being forecast, back in the early 90s this was, the forecast the night before was great, the following morning the lp had ploughed into northern France and the South was bone dry so I'd keep those expectations low to avoid potential disappointment.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The last m4 south snow event I can remember being forecast, back in the early 90s this was, the forecast the night before was great, the following morning the lp had ploughed into northern France and the South was bone dry so I'd keep those expectations low to avoid potential disappointment.

Feet firmly rooted, especially after that post lol, here's to hoping weather models have come on somewhat in the last 22 years :-D

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall

Got to say those wind speeds+direction are as exiting to me as the possible snow.

Haven't had a real big east storm for many years now.If the GFS12z verified it would be a classic.drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The GFS must have gone OTT a little. For midday Monday we have widespread air temperatures below freezing;

post-12721-0-77431500-1362760724_thumb.j

A windchill approaching negative double figures in places;

post-12721-0-31034000-1362760760_thumb.j

And moderate snowfall, blowing in the wind, creating blizzard like conditions;

post-12721-0-90409300-1362760795_thumb.j

That would be exceptional for the time of year if it verified. The UKMO model provides a more realistic version of events with air temperatures freezing or just above;

post-12721-0-52266700-1362760922_thumb.j

Snowfall still for southern coastal counties, though not as heavy as the GFS;

post-12721-0-22627400-1362760946_thumb.j

And a bitter, easterly wind causing snow to blow around;

post-12721-0-12595600-1362760995_thumb.j

Lets see what the ECM brings, and then the high res models from tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The GFS must have gone OTT a little. For midday Monday we have widespread air temperatures below freezing;

post-12721-0-77431500-1362760724_thumb.j

It could be taking in to account all that lovely snow cover? ph34r.png

It would be nice to get some really good cold stats during the cold spell, i like a few stats! :)

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