South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html yep 24hrs of 1-2 inch intensity..... Ouch! 1-2 ft people?

Looking forward to met update! Juicy!

Edited March 9, 2013 by willinkent44

[Guest bjaykent]

I'd like to think that the GFS is leading the way with ppn snow suggestions as the other models are a bit less enthusiastic. Can we keep the faith with it? Because it looks YUMMY!

Hi Tamara, just watching GFS 6z roll out and GFS0.5 seems to suggest cold temps holding on longer in the south east now , Wednesday 6z showing 0 to 2c whereas 0z was showing 3/4c. Might keep any snow that we may have on the ground a little longer. Edited March 9, 2013 by bjaykent

[WillinGlossop]

Nae only goes upto 6z monday.....not in gfs timeframe yet ie later monday/tuesday.....

Gfs goes for 34mm precip monday through tuesday for kent! All snow! Wowza!

48mm in northern france! Ouch.....

Edited March 9, 2013 by willinkent44

[Keraunic]

Ooh! This is the warning for EA....;

[anything-but]

Nae only goes upto 6z monday.....not in gfs timeframe yet ie later monday/tuesday.....

Gfs goes for 34mm precip monday through tuesday for kent! All snow! Wowza!

What`s the timescale on that (start/finish)?

[WillinGlossop]

What`s the timescale on that (start/finish)?

http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html

Midnight sunday/monday through to 6pm tuesday!

Click on list at bottom and choose 6th and 3rd from bottom on list..... Weather porn!

Edited March 9, 2013 by willinkent44

[Tamara]

Hi Tamara, just watching GFS 6z roll out and GFS0.5 seems to suggest cold temps holding on longer in the south east now , Wednesday 6z showing 0 to 2c whereas 0z was showing 3/4c. Might keep any snow that we may have on the ground a little longer.

Yes, as I have just read on the MOD it seems that the GFS keeps the southerly tracking low closer to our parish for longer than the Euro models and hence those enhanced snow totals through Monday and into Tuesday. Whatever snow we get looks to have the window of the cold remaining afterwards to be lengthened. No doubt that the cold snap looks to be longer than originally suggested. Cloudy days and then cloud clearance for frosty nights would be ideal. Don't ask for much do we?

[anything-but]

http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html

Midnight sunday/monday through to 6pm tuesday!

Next noobish question,at T+30,how *nailed* is it?

Edited March 9, 2013 by anything-but

[WillinGlossop]

Next noobish question,at T+30,how *nailed* is it?

Im keeping those charts for posterity.....hoping it comes off and isnt pushed further east next run..... Ie belgium/ holland.... 12z gfs hoping it holds..... If not slightly further north..... Ie 50-75 miles..... Would be 40-60mm .....

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Kent llooks good rest of us not so sure

[Methuselah]

If the 'feature' to the south was to stay away, we would all be more in-line for some whopping convection...Due to the threat of a persistent cloud shield, I'm fearing another wee spell of overcast weather with no-more than a few snow grains...

I hope not!

[anything-but]

Im keeping those charts for posterity.....hoping it comes off and isnt pushed further east next run..... Ie belgium/ holland.... 12z gfs hoping it holds..... If not slightly further north..... Ie 50-75 miles..... Would be 40-60mm .....

Saturday`s are my lazy day for doing nothing (once chores list has been completed!),but i guess i`ll be here @ 3:30 like most other Kenties now trying to put the mockers on any shift east!

[WillinGlossop]

Saturday`s are my lazy day for doing nothing (once chores list has been completed!),but i guess i`ll be here @ 3:30 like most other Kenties now trying to put the mockers on any shift east!

INDEED! fingers n toes crossed..... Apart from one day in january where we had 8cm this winters been rubbish here..... Come on go out with a bang! Pleaseeeeeee.......

[stainesbloke]

If the 'feature' to the south was to stay away, we would all be more in-line for some whopping convection...Due to the threat of a persistent cloud shield, I'm fearing another wee spell of overcast weather with no-more than a few snow grains...

I hope not!

Yup, another total waste of time IMO, cloudy, v cold and windy really gets on my nerves! Still time for things to change of course, Channel lows are a bugger to predict.

[Guest bjaykent]

Yes, as I have just read on the MOD it seems that the GFS keeps the southerly tracking low closer to our parish for longer than the Euro models and hence those enhanced snow totals through Monday and into Tuesday. Whatever snow we get looks to have the window of the cold remaining afterwards to be lengthened. No doubt that the cold snap looks to be longer than originally suggested. Cloudy days and then cloud clearance for frosty nights would be ideal. Don't ask for much do we?

You are certainly looking best placed at the moment for snow aacu. If only we could stick now but suspect more twists to come, not certain what I might see at the moment, might have to rely on the Thames train for showers up here rather than the low, might see nothing at all. Who knows, more minor shifts north/south to come I expect !

[Tamara]

You are certainly looking best placed at the moment for snow aacu. If only we could stick now but suspect more twists to come, not certain what I might see at the moment, might have to rely on the Thames train for showers up here rather than the low, might see nothing at all. Who knows, more minor shifts north/south to come I expect !

The METO prognosis for snow accumulations is not especially encouraging away from parts of the SW (e.g Dartmoor) But they continue to stress the obvious uncertainty. I think we simply wait and see - que sera sera and all that

[WillinGlossop]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-snow-headed-back-to-londo/7677905

[Stevieray1]

Morning all,

I'm soooooo confused! Last night it was game on for most of us then this morning it was looking good for SW areas of our region, now it's Kent??? I'm not keeping up at all!!

Are these different fronts on different days or is the main southerly one moving about?! (Not a very good technical description I know so please excuse my ignorance!!)

[Jason T]

Nice upgrade again.. T48

Edited March 9, 2013 by Jason T

[Stevieray1]

I take it this is having a strange moment with snow amounts and we aren't expecting quite that much??!

[anything-but]

INDEED! fingers n toes crossed..... Apart from one day in january where we had 8cm this winters been rubbish here..... Come on go out with a bang! Pleaseeeeeee.......

Agreed!

IMBY it`s been iffy at best,so even 1-2 days of something decent will elevate that.

[Hotspur62]

Still trying to come to terms with potential for snow for some parts of the SE after the lovely mild sunny weather of last Mon-Wed.If nothing else,the weather in the UK is never boring!!Being in NW Kent we have had so many misses of snow events this winter i am not really building up my hopes and i think the LOW coming in from SW would need a Northwards movement for this part of Kent to be in firing line(think Sussex could be in for a good dump and those South of me in Orpington area have higher chances) but like most occassions this winter it is an ever changing position and maybe this time tomorrow we will be able to assess the snow potential.

Congrats Steve M on 9999 posts on MOD thread.Be interested to hear your comments on snow potential for NW Kent.

[Jason T]

Still trying to come to terms with potential for snow for some parts of the SE after the lovely mild sunny weather of last Mon-Wed.If nothing else,the weather in the UK is never boring!!Being in NW Kent we have had so many misses of snow events this winter i am not really building up my hopes and i think the LOW coming in from SW would need a Northwards movement for this part of Kent to be in firing line(think Sussex could be in for a good dump and those South of me in Orpington area have higher chances) but like most occassions this winter it is an ever changing position and maybe this time tomorrow we will be able to assess the snow potential.

Congrats Steve M on 9999 posts on MOD thread.Be interested to hear your comments on snow potential for NW Kent.

Potential About 150mm at according to VT Chart at T48

[snowking]

The whole situation is a real mess to be honest, we have not had many 'clean' snow events this winter at all, and i'm sure the public must be getting sick and tired of the vagueness and changing of forecasts every few hours at present - unfortunately its something that can't be helped given the situation!

Theres two developments I can see this morning. The first is that the convective risk is slowly increasing with each run, with clouds topping out around 800mb, and from the looks of the ECMWF precipitation projection some fairly constant feeds of showers into NE England and E Anglia, we could well see some unexpectedly high totals from the North Sea.

The big one for this region, however, is the tendency for the precipitation associated with the Channel Low system to arc northwards somewhat on approach to the SE - this could well bring snow for a time up across a large part of this region should future model runs further this idea.

The issue here is this. Given the dynamics of a frontal boundary, there will be a dry zone (likely somewhere across this region) during Monday/Tuesday between the frontal influence to the south, and the more convective influence to the north. At present, that dry zone looks likely to be across the Home Counties. However, should the aforementioned arcing occur, then the frontal influence moves north and forces the dry zone a little further north too (it would then likely reside up through Cambs/Suffolk)

So margins are very fine indeed with this one. It is a shame that the LP isn't a little further south so that we could really see what kind of North Sea convection is able to occur in an extreme cold march situation, and we may still see this yet. However I must say, the growing trend from this morning at least is for the Channel Low to provide a little more influence on this region than previously suggested.

SK

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Norfolk, Peterborough & Suffolk

Rain is expected to turn to sleet and snow during Saturday, more particularly on high ground, but with an increasing risk at lower levels. Around 5 cm of snow could accumulate on roads above 200 m over northern England, whilst there is also a risk of ice forming on power lines over high ground. At low levels and in the south, the main risk of snow is later on Saturday, and a lot of falling snow will melt on the ground, though some accumulations of 5 cm or more here could not be ruled out by late evening.

The sleet and snow will gradually die out from the north during the first part of Sunday, but ice is likely to form on untreated surfaces, particularly across northern England.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption.

This is an update to the warning first issued on Friday.

Issued at:

1052 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid from:

1200 on Sat 9 Mar 2013

Valid to:

0900 on Sun 10 Mar 2013

Cold air coming south and cutting underneath a frontal zone will bring the risk of snow and ice. Temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels, and the ground has been warmed by the recent mild spell, though any sustained intensity will allow accumulations even to low levels. Winds on high ground could gust to more than 50 MPH increasing the risk of damage where rain freezes on power lines, especially over the north Pennines.

Ice will be an additional hazard overnight as the sleet and snow clears south.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ee&from=rss&sn=E7CB0B5E-C048-ABDE-7ADB-49B203FA1119_7_EE&tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1362787200