Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[chionomaniac]

Evening all.

A new thread just prior to the coldest 850's of the last couple of years are about to take hold. The main question is still unanswered - will these be accompanied by low lying settling snow?

Whether we see significant snow or not, it is certainly likely to be a significant deep cold spell for early spring. How exactly will it play out and what is to follow - discuss here.

Please remember to be civil and courteous. Not everyone is looking for a continuation of cold and snowy conditions and those hoping for a return of warm settled conditions are just as welcome to hope for that - as those looking for cold.

Personally I would be happy with one final cold shot followed by a warm, sunny and particularly dry spell. Here's hoping.

Post away.

[nick sussex]

As Chiono has just posted these forecast 850's are the coldest of the year indeed for a few years and really quite exceptional for March especially past the first week of the month.

I'm sure everyone in the south will be watching the Channel Low and hoping for some northwards correction, further north some convective potential looks likely, so a lot going on for the next few days.

[bluearmy]

latest ecm day 10 mean. i thought it so impressive i decided to put it into the new thread aswell. i find this intriguing as we are supposed to be looking at a west based -NAO taking hold which would sink the trough to our west in a generally retrogressive regime and bring a souwester across us. however, the last couple of ecm runs have gradually brought the trough across the uk with the return of lower uppers and heights. (not as per next few days - thats exceptional). the ridge to our west day 10 now very impressive and tbh, it doesnt look too far away from becoming cut off with an undercut of the atlantic.

ties in with the meto 15 dayer. i know ian posted that based on the 00z run, an atlantic incursion with less cold uppers was more than possible. however, this latest ens run seems to have increased the amplification and i wouldnt be surprised if this is now a lower probability option. the fi spread on the last few ecm ens runs brought higher heights across us west to east. not showing that now.

[SE Blizzards]

If Carlsberg did model runs for coldies up to approx 600h (it goes a bit pear-shaped after that), then this would probably be the best model run in the world.....

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&run=10

[nick sussex]

If Carlsberg did model runs for coldies up to approx 600h (it goes a bit pear-shaped after that), then this would probably be the best model run in the world.....

http://www.meteociel...&carte=1&run=10

Yes its a great run, I particularly liked the ene flow sourced in northern Russia, if that showed up mid winter on a non-cat litter model this place would have imploded with excitement.

That has the SM Scandi high developing just in time,but its the CFS and everyone knows what I think of it!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble is continuing its upward trend tonight in both the short and full ensemble

[SE Blizzards]

Yes its a great run, I particularly liked the ene flow sourced in northern Russia, if that showed up mid winter this place would have imploded with excitement.

That has the SM Scandi high developing just in time,but its the CFS and everyone knows what I think of it!

I think everyone on here feels the same way nick about the CFS.

Just posted it for a little bit of fun really

[bluearmy]

The ECM ensemble is continuing its upward trend tonight in both the short and full ensemble

might be worth adding the caveat that with troughing over the uk, holland would be prone to less cold air than us. there did seem to be an fi split on the extended london ens this morning with a fair cluster remaining sub 40f maxes.

[chionomaniac]

The ECM ensemble is continuing its upward trend tonight in both the short and full ensemble

I think though Gavin, it is also worth pointing out that the operational is towards the upper end of the scale towards the end of the run, and that there are no truly mild scenarios in that output.

[CreweCold]

The ECM ensemble is continuing its upward trend tonight in both the short and full ensemble

Bearing in mind De Bilt would likely be in more of a SW'ly flow than parts of the UK judging by the mean posted by Nick

[bluearmy]

i think gavin is now aware !!!

latest nae keeps most of the frontal precip supressed south out to 18z monday.

[CreweCold]

i think gavin is now aware !!!

latest nae keeps most of the frontal precip supressed south out to 18z monday.

About 3 of us were posting the same thing at the same time

[Snowman.]

The ECM ensemble is continuing its upward trend tonight in both the short and full ensemble

Op was on the mild side there gav

Anyway hope you get a decent summer as I get to spend 6 weeks in Australia. Frankly summer doesn't bother me.

[Purga]

NAE is BAD as BA says

Interested to hear METO's take on it from Ian F?

[johnholmes]

Bearing in mind De Bilt would likely be in more of a SW'ly flow than parts of the UK judging by the mean posted by Nick

It depends on the 'slant' any poster wishes to put on it of course.

What it shows in objective terminology is that it gets colder then less cold on THAT prediction.

Some may want to use the term milder others prefer not to but the above sentence is what it actually shows - the bias from different folk.

A very good example to new folk of how the same chart will be interpretd in different ways by different folk!

[winterof79]

Heavens.... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/09/basis12/ukuk/taup/13031112_0912.gif

[bluearmy]

NAE is BAD as BA says

Interested to hear METO's take on it from Ian F?

those are 12z charts purga. only the precip accums are out thus far for the 18z run.

JH, i think it was worth pointing out that the less cold trend, whilst 100% certain, may not be as marked for the uk as for holland, given the locale of the mean trough.

[chionomaniac]

Looks like those on the south coast will need a rowing boat to catch the snow on the 18Z. What a waste to see snow over the sea if that is to occur!!!

It may be a good day to go mackerel fishing off Brighton Marina!

[fergieweather]

NAE is BAD as BA says

Interested to hear METO's take on it from Ian F?

Exactly in line with earlier MOGREPS snow distribution I posted earlier, so at least confidence continues to increase on reduced northerly bounds. I'll dip into Chief's take on it later.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Bearing in mind De Bilt would likely be in more of a SW'ly flow than parts of the UK judging by the mean posted by Nick

LOL All of a sudden the De Bilt ensembles are a waste of time. When the De Bilt ensembles show mega cold they are elevated to a god like status and everyone forgets that De Bilt is miles away from the UK.

The 00z ECM ensembles for Birmingham do show it getting less cold all the way until the end of the 15 day run. Albeit it very slowly turns less cold but by the end we are pretty much back to average. I don't expect the 12z ECM ensembles to look much different.

[ukpaul]

Looks like those on the south coast will need a rowing boat to catch the snow on the 18Z. What a waste to see snow over the sea if that is to occur!!!

It may be a good day to go mackerel fishing off Brighton Marina!

All other models' recent runs have snow across the southern fringes (at the very least) at some point .

Edit: But Ian F says it agrees with MOGREPS (which we can't see!)

[winterof79]

Looks like those on the south coast will need a rowing boat to catch the snow on the 18Z. What a waste to see snow over the sea if that is to occur!!!

It may be a good day to go mackerel fishing off Brighton Marina!

And if you are fishing off Whitby coast,you will not need to pack your catch in ice... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/09/basis12/ukuk/prty/13031112_0912.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/09/basis12/ukuk/tmin/13031112_0912.gif

[Radiating Dendrite]

As has been said before though, the low further south should allow some convective action to occur all the way doen the eastern side of the country.

[Paul]

Just for the avoidance of doubt, point scoring, digs at other posters and general disrespect of others isn't something we're prepared to put up with on here, so please - if you're about to post something which is in that or a similar category, or isn't about the models please don't bother.

[Captain Shortwave]

Another thing to take watch of, is a little feature running down the north sea Tuesday night. That could give a covering of snow potentially in Eastern areas if the conditions are good. Looks like showers would follow for Eastern coasts too on Wednesday.

The potential Steve Murr surface high appears to be building behind this feature in later frames.