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Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 13th March 2013 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

A new thread to discuss the possibilities of convective weather in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Robin, you star!....my favourite thread on the forum biggrin.png ....time to forget about this winter nonsense and turn our eyes towards April showers, May home growns & spanish plumes! cool.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well it seems a bit early in the year to be discussing the chances of convective weather especially thunderstorms, but non the less such a possibility exists today and lets kick off with the ESTOFEX forecast:

post-6667-0-43247800-1363160639.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 13 Mar 2013 06:00 to Thu 14 Mar 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 13 Mar 2013 03:17

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-Italy mainly for locally heavy rainfall amounts and an isolated tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for Montenegro and parts of NW-Albania mainly for excessive rainfall amounts.

SYNOPSIS

The long-lived cold-core vortex over the Bay of Biscay finally starts its long anticipated motion to the SE as the major branch of the polar vortex/ high longitude longwave trough continues to build south. This vortex opens up as it rounds the tip of the trough and remains progressive during the forecast as it enters the C-Mediterranean with a positive tilt. This evolution finally creates a more cyclonically curved flow pattern within the subtropical jet, which also causes an increasingly diffluent flow pattern over SE-Europe.

At lower levels, the frontal boundary, which caused havoc over parts of C-Europe in respect to snow and freezing rain during the past few days now shifts south and will be the nucleus for a gradually organizing depression, which becomes a mature storm system over E-Europe during the following days.

North of that boundary (which encompasses all of N-Europe), cold and dry air continues to keep weather quiet regarding thunderstorm development. A few low-end lightning areas were issued, where some daytime driven convection may produce deep enough updrafts for a few short-lived thunderstorms.

I'll go and dig out all the charts and indicators so you can make your own mind up.

post-6667-0-43247800-1363160639_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

OK, ESTOFEX the only organisation picking up on the potential for today so far (apart from the BBC)

First one after the dedicated sites I normally turn to is 21st OWS but they have an announcement on their website!!!

Effective 29 March 2013, the 21st Operational Weather Squadron Public Access Website will be taken down permanently. We apologize for any inconvenience. For up to date weather forecast information from the 21st Operational Weather Squadron, tune in to AFN Radio and AFN Television

http://ows.public.se...f.mil/index.cfm

They don't show the area over the SE UK today:

073705Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_13031312.GIF

Aviation weather forecast similar to 21st OWS:

PGNE14_CL.gif

So onto the Lightning Wizard charts which use GFS as their basis:

Very little mixed layer CAPE:

gfs_cape_eur15.png

No shear to speak of:

gfs_icape_eur15.png

But some good convergence going on off the SE coast around from the Channel through to the North Sea:

gfs_layer_eur15.png

gfs_pvort_eur15.png

Nice levels of surface CAPE:

gfs_spout_eur15.png

Although lapse rates aren't special:

gfs_lapse2_eur15.png

Lower level lapse rates a tad better:

gfs_lapse_eur15.png

gfs_pw_eur15.png

Herstmonceux Skew T is not overwhelming, but there are some indications, but it's quite a low probability:

post-6667-0-74990800-1363162438_thumb.pn

Explanations of the data in the right hand box here:

post-6667-0-98697100-1362556701_thumb.jp post-6667-0-80632900-1362556697_thumb.jp

I'll be looking for that sun to warm things up a bit today and then one eye on the detectors to see if it kicks off a bit later.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

A couple more new charts using GFS again from me:

GFS_560_076_015.png

Clouds and convection I think!!!

GFS_202_916_006.png

CAPE

Nothing for storms on the simple overview from GFS, but plenty of snow out in the North Sea and around the Kent Channel coast:

18_20.gif

The soaring index has an area over the SE corner (in yellow)

12_24.gif

Looks like if it happens, Paul Sherman is back in the zone!!!

ukstormrisk.png

ukstormrisk.png

Is he magnetic for storms or something???? :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Yep, some nice indications on GFS for the next week or so:

Sunday looks OK for London and the surrounding area:

MU_London_avn.png

Up and down but still worth watching around Manchester:

MU_Manchester_avn.png

Same for Aberdeen:

MU_Aberdeen_avn.png

More widely isolated for Wales and the SW on Sunday?:

96_20.gif

108_20.gif

Maybe into The Channel in a weeks time?

192_20.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Now I know why I'm not on Facebook:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Probably a reach given lack of certain factors, and others going against the potential, but thought it was worth noting. Perhaps I'm being a little eager to make something of nothing as spring progresses and summer approaches lol.

Absolutely nothing wrong with keenness and enthusiasm! Nice to see reports of convective clouds off the EA and Kent coasts this afternoon, pretty much as shown by the charts this morning. Here's to a long, hot, stormy Summer!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Had a potent shower here today just after 3.30 pm which gave some large hail

at the start but unfortunately no thunder!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Man have I missed this thread, feels like ages ago since I was on the thread that made me join Netweather, one of the best decisions in my life I've ever made, I have to say!

Winter has been marvellous, I really have learnt a heck of a lot through this brilliant website and most of all, I cant wait for what this summer has to throw at us! Hopefully plenty more spanish plume activity and potent storms than last year did. I look forward to it chaps.

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Not been on for a while but hopefully 2013 will be one to remember! Already had a couple of weak events (see signature) but we are nearing one of the 2 best times of year for storms on the Isle of Man. Just been looking back at 7th May 2011 as I wasn't a part of the NW forums then. We had a beauty of a storm that night! Shame I wasn't a part of the forums then.. people were itching for reports from anywhere in the Irish Sea!

To kick off, looks like there is definitely some potential for storms or at least thundery showers this weekend! BBC/ Met Office already giving the risk of hail and thunder! Its been a while!

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I too have that feeling that storms are not too far away. I have already been out practising with my laptop, video camera and new Android phone - but chasing snow showers rather than storms. There were some potent snow showers around Nottinghamshire this evening that I chased, and cannot pretend that seeing distant anvils from approaching showers did not give me goosebumps :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

Has anybody had a look at the charts for Sunday? I think there's the possibility of a little something across the southern half of England and Wales during the early afternoon. Chance of some hail and perhaps even a little T&L?

Also, good to see this thread back. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

In case you all forgot what convection looks like ;) here is some from just after sunset this evening over the hills

convect_zps36b0fa0a.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Now that's what I call enthusiasm. biggrin.png

Monday was a good day - heavy snow showers well inland, with each one that affected here being accompanied strong gusts of wind as cold air aloft surged downward.

Yep, here's to a stormy storm season lol.

Indeed, Monday was very good. I booked the day off work and positioned myself around the Southern Peak District so I would be in a good position to experience blizzard conditions and I sure did. I did notice the strongest gusts of wind at the rear of the cells, and even after the snow had stopped there was heavy drifting in some powerful wind gusts. The windchill made it feel quite extreme at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

It was quite tranquil being on the local hillside this evening seeing the last of the welsh showers moving south along the horizon, some anvils and beefy CUs along that area of convection. It was mainly shallow convection here in the Pennines but as soon as the sun went down it all fizzled away into clear-skies leaving room for a good sunset and good viewing of pan-starrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Has anybody had a look at the charts for Sunday? I think there's the possibility of a little something across the southern half of England and Wales during the early afternoon. Chance of some hail and perhaps even a little T&L?

Current GFS has it slightly offshore in those areas, but it's far enough away in time to improve (or disappear!!)

72_20.gif

Later in the day may be good for Wales:

84_20.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

We look to be heading into a slightly convective period in the SE, at least if latest GFS free-atmosphere chart for London comes to fruition:

MU_London_avn.png

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

There was certainly some convection going on yesterday. Had a couple of intense graupel showers and was surprised by the clouds and intensity not to have a few rumbles.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

Some nice convective hail showers around yesterday. This cell was caught east of Ipswich. Check out the white hail core.

Sorry it's on it's side. Replying from my phone and not sure how to flip it!

post-15242-0-09138200-1363265042_thumb.j

Edited by lewisosd
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Nice to see more posts in here now,looking forward to the next few months and what mother nature may or not bring,bored of cold weather now just want warmer weather and chances of thunderstorms then I will be happy although I'm happy now as I passed my first aid course today.

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Going off what some weather forecasts are saying, southwest coastal areas are in for 'a few flashes and rumbles' overnight ?? I can't see any signs of thundery potential until tomorrow at least..

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

Going off what some weather forecasts are saying, southwest coastal areas are in for 'a few flashes and rumbles' overnight ?? I can't see any signs of thundery potential until tomorrow at least..

I'd say something possible Saturday or Sunday but not seeing much tonight or tomorrow.

Although saying that, UKASF just released a 'Slight' for N Ireland and W Scotland for Friday >> http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/227

Edited by CardiffStorm
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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

I'd say something possible Saturday or Sunday but not seeing much tonight or tomorrow.

That's what I mean.. I can see all the potential for the weekend! It's just no idea what some forecasts are seeing in tonight?! Ahaha

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff

That's what I mean.. I can see all the potential for the weekend! It's just no idea what some forecasts are seeing in tonight?! Ahaha

UKASF and ESTOFEX going for something minor for N Ireland and W Scotland on Friday but nothing tonight.

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