Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 13th March 2013 onwards

[Supacell]

I usually take the 1st April as my start date for the uk storm chasing season - but the first proper convective periods are normally mid-April onwards in my experience. I am hoping for a decent storm chasing season this year, but we need to get some warmer temperatures first as thunderstorms seem a long way off at present. Can't see much with temperatures of 5-6c and cold easterly winds.

Still, in 2 weeks time things could be very different

[Convective]

I can see change on the horizon... Into next week it looks to become much more unsettled with Atlantic flows dominating again! Hopefully we can have some thundery weather embedded!

[Coast]

I can see change on the horizon... Into next week it looks to become much more unsettled with Atlantic flows dominating again! Hopefully we can have some thundery weather embedded!

The 9th onwards seems to be key according to GFS:

[Nick F]

Some warmish sunshine and some thundery April showers would make a nice change from this relentless cold dry easterly ... ECM looks like it could produce that from the 9th as that low slides in to the west.

[Coast]

GFS builds through next week, but probably not enough to excite us in the south, but further North in a week or so's time maybe?:

[Stuart]

Thanks Coast looking forworad to that

[Coast]

Thanks Coast looking forworad to that

It's moving about a bit Stuart on GFS and the timeslot keeps changing (as it would this far out)

But there is a increased convective period showing for your part of the World later next week:

[Coast]

GFS shows the London area seeing a rise in convection next week, but not enough to give us anything exciting:

[Bobby]

GFS shows the London area seeing a rise in convection next week, but not enough to give us anything exciting:

A potentially thundery Spanish plume on 06 GFS

Been a bit of a trend on the models lately, far out though.

[Coast]

A potentially thundery Spanish plume on 06 GFS

I don't think it gets any further than Spain for any great effect, according to GFS:

There might be a bit of action in NW France in the week:

[Coast]

Quite a lot of shear maybe a tornado or two in Northern France on Tuesday?

[Supacell]

Heads up for the end of the week as there is the possibilities now showing up of some convective activity/thunderstorms moving into the SW late on Thursday and then spreading northwards on Friday - with the Midlands southward currently looking the most likely. Still 4-5 days away so time for change, but my eyes have noticed so I will keep looking.

[Coast]

Heads up from GFS for Friday?

I shan't be in the country to enjoy the action if it happens, but good luck to anyone under an area of potential!

[Coast]

Hmmmmm, interesting.

It's a way out yet, but as you say interesting. Maybe it will point us towards a good storm season this year?

[Coast]

Current GFS is out to Thursday this morning and shows what may be the interesting feature for Friday coming in off the Atlantic.

Seems odd to be writing 'off the Atlantic' after months of Easterlies!

[AWD]

Think it's time for me to renew my NW extra package now then.

Hopefully, the warmer, southerly pattern the medium range output shows will help modify the current below average SST's over the coming few weeks, as this could inhibit importations from France.

[Supacell]

Tasty charts in FI but currently no support for it from ensembles. Fun to look at though and i agree that these charts showing up for the first time this season are of interest and hopefully indicative of what will come eventually.

Friday has my attention though and i too will be renewing my netweather extra subscription, officially marking the start of the 2013 storm season :-D

[Sprites]

Think it's time for me to renew my NW extra package now then.

Hopefully, the warmer, southerly pattern the medium range output shows will help modify the current below average SST's over the coming few weeks, as this could inhibit importations from France.

the S.S.T. will take some warming after our winter!, most storms that make the channel into England are elevated so the sea temps woudn't come into it.

Autumn coastal Tstorms may be affected though with less energy from the sea.

Edited April 8, 2013 by Sprites

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I really hope this will be a season that will deliver some spectacular shows like 2005 did and much of the 90's.

I think SST's don't really matter that much, the channel will always be a killer for any real storms, unless its a real good import with good mid level CAPE which sustains them. A good example in 2005 and previous years such as that wicked MCS of 3rd July 1999 that must've frightened the whole of the SE with 100+ lightnings per minute. If we get a good push of real super warm air from Spain and the Jet nowhere to be seen to the South, its defo all to play for IMO, as we've seen no real proper Spanish plume system from since 2006, and especially them ones that used to rumble on from midnight onto 7am since the 90's.

Looking forward to it folks.

[Raidan]

It is nice to think with the warmer months getting closer the storm potential gets better but I have come to learn that over the last ten or so years the uk does quite poorly when it comes to thunderstorms especially the SW any good storms seem to choose the east or north of the uk.I remember the days as a young lad the storms that would scare the life out of me but I think those days are well and truly gone.I don't know what but something has happened to the uk when it comes to storms with us getting hardly anything anymore.what I don't understand is why France do so well for storms we're not a million miles away from them yet still have very little if any proper thunderstorms.Anyway I am looking forward to a active storm season this year but I won't be doing as much radar watching or checking the ATD as often as I have in previous years.I've learnt getting excited about something you know 9/10 isn't going to happen isn't worth it.I hope one day the classic overnight MCS's or any part of the day return but I can't see it happening in the near future.I wish all storm loving members the best of luck for 2013 and more importantly I get something decent myself.

[Andy Bown]

what I don't understand is why France do so well for storms we're not a million miles away from them yet still have very little if any proper thunderstorms.

France is part of a much larger landmass than the UK so far more heat to help generate instability and storms. Similar does happen in the UK, but that's maybe in a way why the N/E regions seem to do better as the instability grows further across the UK's landmass. I am sure there's far more to it than that though!

[Coast]

Friday still stacking up for some action!

[Coast]

Latest GFS convection indicators point towards fun and games on Friday for the South, gusty winds and hail possible but maybe thunderstorms too:

Then into Saturday and that's a big system coming in:

[Stuart]

Thanks coast just need some storms to try my New Lighning Detector out

[Nick F]

Nice Plume in GFS never never land ... first one I've seen this year:

Looking forwards to the thundery April showers on Friday.