ne australia Tropical Cyclone Tim

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone Tim has formed just east of the Cape York Peninsula, NE Australia. Intensity is 35kts. The cyclone has deepening convection over the LLC and improving banding features. The system is in a favourable environment characterised by low shear, warm sea temps, and good outflow. Therefore, Tim is expected to strengthen for the next 72hrs. Weakening is expected thereafter due to rising shear.

Tim is moving southeastwards currently, steered by an equatorial ridge. Through the next few days, steering influence is expected to transfer to a ridge to the southeast, cradling Tim back towards the southwest, towards the coast. The timing and exact track is uncertain, but Tim looks to be a threat to land early next week. Tim should be weakening by the time it approaches land, but could still pack a punch. One to watch.

[Coast]

CYCLONE TIM LOOMS OFF FAR NORTH QLD

The weather bureau says Cyclone Tim has intensified into a category 2 system in the Coral Sea, but is still heading away from the Queensland coast. Tropical Cyclone Tim, which formed this morning, is about 500 kilometres north-east of Cairns.

Forecaster Alicia Duncanson says they are keeping track on its progress off shore. "The observations from Willis Island have been very interesting today," she said. "We've been getting down to two or three hundred metres of visibility, so they can't see the end of the island and [there's] some very heavy rainfall coming through there. "But [it's] expected to track to the north of the island and with the facilities we have there up to a category three cyclone isn't an issue, other than a bit of storm surge into some areas."

Meanwhile, locals on Lord Howe Island, off the New South Wales north coast, are preparing to be hit by. Island Board chief executive officer Stephen Wills says the worst of the weather is expected tonight and tomorrow morning.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/16365358/cyclone-tim-looms-off-far-north-qld/

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:52pm EST on Thursday the 14th of March 2013 and valid until end of Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

At 1pm Thursday tropical cyclone Tim, category 1, was located near 14.7S 149.3E,

about 450km east-northeast of Cairns, and was moving southeast at 26 kilometres

per hour away from the Queensland Coast. There is currently no direct threat to

the Queensland coast during the outlook period. Refer to the latest Tropical

Cyclone Information Bulletin for further details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: High

Saturday: High

Sunday: High

Potential Cyclones:

There are no other significant low in the region and none are expected to

develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very Low

Saturday: Very Low

Sunday: Very Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a

tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,

Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea

west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Somerset Squall]

Tim has strengthened to 55kts. The cyclone has maintained deep convection over the LLC through today and this has allowed the LLC to further tighten. However, Tim may not strengthen any further. Already, shear is increasing over Tim and displacing the convection from the LLC. Moderate shear is expected to prevent further strengthening and then cause weakening in a couple days time as it rises further. Tim has quickly moved southeastwards over the last day but will slow soon as steering currents become weak. Tim is still then expected to drift generally westwards as a high builds to the south, but the timing of this turn is uncertain. Tim is not expected to impact the coast as a tropical cyclone as shear should ultimately kill Tim before the cyclone makes it.

[Coast]

Tropical Cyclone Tim to Turn Toward Australia

March 15, 2013; 9:00 AM

Tropical Cyclone Tim, as seen by satellite as of 0530 UTC Friday, March 15, 2013. Location was over the Coral Sea;

Queensland to the west, Papua-New Guinea to the north.

Tropical Cyclone Tim strengthened slightly on Thursday over the open waters of the Coral Sea, east of Australia. Since then, Tim has begun to weaken as it interacts with less favorable upper-level conditions. Tim has been tracking east-southeast for several days, passing just north of Willis Island Wednesday into Thursday. During this time, the storm brought more than 6 inches of rainfall to the island along with sustained winds near 40 mph. Current thinking is that Tim will track more to the southeast through Saturday before looping back to the west. This track will take the storm closer to Australia during the early to middle part of next week. However, this track will keep Tim in an area unfavorable for any strengthening and will likely weaken the storm to the point that it may lose its tropical characteristics.

Regardless, the central and southern coastline of Queensland could be impacted by rainfall from Tim by as early as Monday. While odds of a landfall appear low, the storm could still track close enough to the coast that flooding rainfall may occur.

Areas from Townsville south to Brisbane should closely monitor this tropical cyclone in the coming days for possible impacts next week.

This region was already hit hard by flooding earlier this month when a strong low pressure system brought more than a foot of rain over a two- to three-day period.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-tim-to-turn-t/8165066

[Somerset Squall]

Tim has weakened to 35kts. At times over the last day, the LLC has been entirely exposed. However, a recent burst of convection has persisted near the LLC in the face of strong northerly shear. Tim is eventually expected to succumb to the shear, and may degenerate into a remnant low as soon as tomorrow as it drifts slowly westwards.

[Coast]

[Somerset Squall]

Tim has degenerated into a remnant low this evening. The LLC has been devoid of convection for most of the day, and has become less defined as a result. Just recently, convection has flared over the southern quadrant of the LLC, but with the dry air and continued shear expected to continue to plague the system, redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is not expected.