South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Frosty_wsm]

Just been reading the last few pages of the mod thread, plenty of mention of snow and the m4 being the boundary, if that's the case then....yawn....bring on proper spring warmth, if it's gonna rain then it may as well be very mild with it!

[Man With Beard]

Just seen NAE forecasting lying snow just north of Pompey by this time tomorrow! This winter just goes on and on

[Mark Neal.]

From our resident forum member and SW Bbc Forecaster-

Ian Fergusson

â€@fergieweatherW COUNTRY SUN: Met Office high-res models continue to offer threat of 2-4cm snowfall into AM for parts of Dorset, S & E Somerset & Wiltshire

Edited March 16, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Great day for us weather geeks. Some amazing hail storms, can't remember the last time the hail was that large. Covered the ground in no time and some thunder and lightening thrown in.

[AWD]

Just checked the latest NAE and it pretty much suggests wintriness is possible at any time over the next 48 hours over certain parts of the region. Nothing note able shown, just a signal for wintry showers. A snapshot for Monday evening shown below;

[fergieweather]

Just checked the latest NAE and it pretty much suggests wintriness is possible at any time over the next 48 hours over certain parts of the region. Nothing note able shown, just a signal for wintry showers. A snapshot for Monday evening shown below;

It's a focused area into tomorrow am that's causing us concern/headaches. This select area has consistently been highlighted in last 2 runs of UKMO suite of 1.5, 2.2 & 4km models & ensembles (MOGREPS run at 2.2km).

[Man With Beard]

Just checked the latest NAE and it pretty much suggests wintriness is possible at any time over the next 48 hours over certain parts of the region. Nothing note able shown, just a signal for wintry showers. A snapshot for Monday evening shown below;

For 95% of us, yes, but looks like there will be some intensity related snow bands, could catch some people out tomorrow

[legritter]

A band of showers now approaching Devon and Cornwall this could be interesting as they push N EASTlater .yes we had amazing hail and one loud clap of thunder early evening .coming week could see some wintry weather ,but it would help if colder uppers just push a little more south than currently predicted and some front comes along giving some persistent precipitation .im not staying up for radar watching, some good sleep needed .

[AWD]

For 95% of us, yes, but looks like there will be some intensity related snow bands, could catch some people out tomorrow

True. Get caught under a heavier pulse and that could cause suprise issues, especially if such activity fell overnight, assisted by cooler temperatures, temporary settling may occur.

I would have highly that any settling would melt away during the day however with the strengthening sun and daytime maxima.

[AWD]

It's a focused area into tomorrow am that's causing us concern/headaches. This select area has consistently been highlighted in last 2 runs of UKMO suite of 1.5, 2.2 & 4km models & ensembles (MOGREPS run at 2.2km).

Thanks Ian. Interesting as this is something not notably picked upon with the data available on the Internet.

As said on above post, any settling snow is likely not to last too long I would have thought, but could cause local problems for any early Sunday morning travellers.

Could it be an additional development from this feature that we are talking about;

Edited March 16, 2013 by AWD

[AWD]

I see the GFS has a little feature over Dorset, Hampshire and Wiltshire that suggests snowfall on the NW edge;

[AWD]

All speculation at this stage off course, but this front;

On Wednesday could provide some interest for those still craving some of the white stuff in what seems to be a never-ending chase!

Looking at it broadly and not in detail, this;

could provide similiar scenes to those recently witnessed across the Channel Islands, only further north this time. Where will the boundary be though?

Edited March 16, 2013 by AWD

[fergieweather]

Thanks Ian. Interesting as this is something not notably picked upon with the data available on the Internet.

As said on above post, any settling snow is likely not to last too long I would have thought, but could cause local problems for any early Sunday morning travellers.

Could it be an additional development from this feature that we are talking about;

Yup. It's essentially an interaction between the trough and occlusion debris, all lying within the cold vortex. As the cold front brings an organised band of rain/showers back into southern fringes of SW England tonight, the WBFL sits at 300-400m on the western flank of this area, hence the accumulating snow risk early Sunday for areas noted above, plus hills of S Devon (albeit Dartmoor, ironically, might miss the worst). Anyway, gotta dash to wear other forecast hat for F1 qualIfying... catch up tomorrow!

[arcus cloud]

Morning,

Have got up to watch the Grand Prix, and see at least 3cm of snow outside, and still falling !! Was not expecting that down here in south devon !!

[lfcdude]

Rain seems to be getting more sleety now

More snow then rain

Edited March 17, 2013 by lfcdude

[Andy Bown]

Heavy settling snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Always the surprise events that happen rather than those predicted days in advance!

Edited March 17, 2013 by Andy Bown

[sherrie]

Just looked out the window its snowing in Axminster, where did that come from!?

[SNOWYLAD]

Snowing in Yeovil too!

[divadee]

Wow lovely surprise some of you waking up to! Just more grey and heavy rain here

[lfcdude]

big flakes moderate snow.. the heavy snow on the radar... going just to my east.. damn ha

[Lyn-M]

Heavy, but wet, snow here too. Settling on the grass, but less so on the paths and road.

[Evening thunder]

Looks like some more interesting weather around my home area, more interesting than here in the SE as usual haha

Only a week until I am back in Devon anyway

[Aceman]

rain has just turned to snow here

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just started to snow hear in the fog ! Very light snow at min as the ppn is just getting to me !! Have a look at the nae guys it shows quite significant snow this morning in a narrow band . . . And guess who's under it!

[DanDorsetUK]

Heavy snow here in Ibberton Near Blandford Forum. Nice supprise!