April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

[Summer of 95]

5.9 for me please

[Don]

Late this time but I will go for 7.9C please.

[Pen]

4.7C with no certainty, but to equal coldest/lowest CET April of 1837 although I hope it doesn't stay as cold as that.

[Weather-history]

Going by xcweather, it looks like minima were around 0C last night while maxima are around 4C, so something between 1.5 and 2.5C seems likely tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.1C to the 2nd (2.2)

2.2C to the 3rd (2.5)

2.2C to the 4th (1.9)

2.4C to the 5th (3.2)

2.5C to the 6th (3.3)

2.7C to the 7th (3.6)

2.5C to the 8th (1.5)

GFS showing a remarkably cold first week to April. The ECM has a very different scenario though.

If that were the case, 9th March-8th April would have a CET of 2.1C!

[chionomaniac]

Better late than never

An average 9.1ºC please. Colder start, warmer finish.

[hillbilly]

have a go at 6.1

[Mark Neal.]

8.4C for me. Sorry its late, but haven't been online for a few days.. A cold dry start, unsettled cool midmonth, then warm end to april.

[Gray-Wolf]

I get the feeling our Arctic wildcard will give us a different summer after the past 6 dire ones and I believe April will be the start of it all?

We know it'll start chilly but the sun is gaining strength so a continuation of above average pressure should leave us with a warm/hot rest of the month with a distinct lack of April Showers?

10.2c for me Bob!

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Weather-history]

April by the 1st is 2.3

If April were as warm as 2011 and May as warm as 1833, the CET for this spring would be 9.7C

[Roger J Smith]

This April has about as much chance of beating 2011 as I have of beating Usain Bolt, after waiting five seconds to start from outside the stadium.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I get the feeling our Arctic wildcard will give us a different summer after the past 6 dire ones and I believe April will be the start of it all?

We know it'll start chilly but the sun is gaining strength so a continuation of above average pressure should leave us with a warm/hot rest of the month with a distinct lack of April Showers?

10.2c for me Bob!

I dunno GW. With SSTs 2 or 3C below average to the east and the first week likely coming in cooler than the January average, we'd need more than just high pressure to get the CET up that high!

[Summer Sun]

Up to 2.5c to the 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is -2.0C, while maxima look like reaching about 7C, so remaining close to 2.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.4C to the 4th (2.1)

2.5C to the 5th (2.9)

2.7C to the 6th (3.4)

2.8C to the 7th (3.4)

3.0C to the 8th (4.7)

3.5C to the 9th (7.2)

4.0C to the 10th (9.0)

[Weather-history]

Minimum today is -2.0C, while maxima look like reaching about 7C, so remaining close to 2.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

2.4C to the 4th (2.1)

2.5C to the 5th (2.9)

2.7C to the 6th (3.4)

2.8C to the 7th (3.4)

3.0C to the 8th (4.7)

3.5C to the 9th (7.2)

4.0C to the 10th (9.0)

If that proves to be correct then the CET for the period 9th March-8th April 2013 would be an amazing 2.3C

[Guest pjl20101]

2.5 to the 2nd

[Summer Sun]

2.5 to the 2nd

Already posted at post 113

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 2.6c to the 3rd

[reef]

With the average to the 3rd being 2.6C, we already require a mean of 9.2C for the remaining 27 days to reach the 1981-2010 average.

Chances are the number required will increase further over the next few days too.

[Yarmy]

This evening's ECM is making my joke guess look worryingly close to coming off. With so much cold air still around the continent, you wouldn't bet against a few warm/cold swings in the 2nd half of the month.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Does anyone know what the record low CET is for the first week of April and how close is 2013 looking to beating it?

[DAVID SNOW]

Does anyone know what the record low CET is for the first week of April and how close is 2013 looking to beating it?

No CET data prior to 1953 im afraid

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

No CET data prior to 1953 im afraid

Ok, thanks. Let's hope it warms up so the April CET record low is not under threat.

Like someone posted up earlier, it's almost certain that April is going to be a colder than average month now.

[Stu_London]

No CET data prior to 1953 im afraid

Actually the daily CET data goes back to 1772.

1st April 1917 to 7th April 1917 is the coldest I can find at 1.7C

1st April 1922 to 7th April 1922 was 2.8C

This will be the coldest 1st week since those two dates and probably in the top ten coldest 1st weeks of April since 1772

[stewfox]

Actually the daily CET data goes back to 1772.

1st April 1917 to 7th April 1917 is the coldest I can find at 1.7C

1st April 1922 to 7th April 1922 was 2.8C

This will be the coldest 1st week since those two dates and probably in the top ten coldest 1st weeks of April since 1772

Thanks for that, I thought that was the case Have we ever had http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 3.5 Jan 3.2 Feb 2.7 March 2.6 April (keeping a copy of that)

[Weather-history]

If that proves to be correct then the CET for the period 9th March-8th April 2013 would be an amazing 2.3C

I'm surprise there is not more discussion on this. This period could turn out even colder than the March. The last 31 days up to 3rd April is provisionally 2.6C, already 0.1C colder than March. How low can it go with this running 31 day period?

Edited April 4, 2013 by Weather-history