April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, here you go with some answers. The daily CET record goes back to 1772 and this table will include all cases that are the five lowest starts I found in my data program for 1-7, 1-10 and 1-15 (first half). Since some years appear in all these categories, I have a table showing all qualifiers at all three positions whether they are "bottom five" each time, or not. The years are only in order for the first column as they shift positions after that. Ranks for coldest five are shown.

At the bottom of the table are comparable values for the coldest most recent year, 1986. (1984 had the same figure for 1-7).. Weather-history has a thread over in the historical weather section that tracks the 1837 (coldest April) CET day by day and I posted the actual daily figures there too.

YEAR _________ COLD 1-7 ___ COLD 1-10 ___ COLD 1-15

___________________________________________________

1917 __________ 1.7 (1) ________ 2.1 (1) _________ 2.6 (1)

1839 __________ 2.1 (2) ________ 2.5 (2) _________ 4.0 (5)

1799 __________ 2.3 (3) ________ 3.3 (5) _________ 4.2 (-)

1809 __________ 2.7 (4) ________ 3.9 (-) _________ 4.6 (-)

1922 __________ 2.8 (5) ________ 3.4 (6) _________ 4.9 (-)

1888 __________ 3.0 (-) ________ 3.0 (4) _________ 4.8 (-)

1784 __________ 3.6 (-) ________ 3.8 (-) _________ 3.8 (3)

1816 __________ 3.8 (-) ________ 4.2 (-) _________ 3.9 (4)

1837 __________ 3.4 (-) ________ 2.9 (3) _________ 2.9 (2)

1986 __________ 3.9 (-) ________ 4.1 (-) _________ 4.4 (-)

This table shows that 1917 held first place for cold to mid-month, but 1837 was gaining steadily.

Last year the figures were 6.0, 6.7, 6.6.

The daily figures for 1917 and running CET for tracking are:

date ..CET .. month to date

________________________

01 ... -0.2 ... --0.2

02 ... -0.5 ... --0.3

03 .... 0.5 ... --0.1

04 .... 2.8 ..... 0.7

05 .... 3.2 ..... 1.2

06 .... 2.6 ..... 1.4

07 .... 3.7 ..... 1.7

08 .... 4.2 ..... 2.0

09 .... 3.4 ..... 2.2

10 .... 1.4 ..... 2.1

11 .... 2.5 ..... 2.1

12 .... 3.4 ..... 2.3

13 .... 3.7 ..... 2.4

14 .... 5.0 ..... 2.6

15 .... 4.0 ..... 2.6

[Paul T]

Ok, So the next 7 days based on the 12z GFS;

To the 3rd = 2.6oC and the rolling CET will be:

4th: 2.8

5th: 2.8

6th: 2.9

7th: 3.1

8th: 3.3

9th: 3.6

10th: 4.0

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Some brilliant replies there guys, thanks. So if the cold locked in pattern holds out til the 15th (not that I want it to!), we could be looking at coldest first half of April since 1917?

Edited April 4, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[DAVID SNOW]

Actually the daily CET data goes back to 1772.

1st April 1917 to 7th April 1917 is the coldest I can find at 1.7C

1st April 1922 to 7th April 1922 was 2.8C

This will be the coldest 1st week since those two dates and probably in the top ten coldest 1st weeks of April since 1772

hop over to the march cet thread and read what mr data says about the history of the cet.

[DAVID SNOW]

Thanks for that, I thought that was the case Have we ever had http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html 3.5 Jan 3.2 Feb 2.7 March 2.6 April (keeping a copy of that)

see post 130.

[DAVID SNOW]

Ok, thanks. Let's hope it warms up so the April CET record low is not under threat.

Like someone posted up earlier, it's almost certain that April is going to be a colder than average month now.

Very sorry blue skies, did not mean to mislead you,have a look at the other thread if you can, may shed some light as to the reason of my post.

[Weather-history]

Can anyone remember how mild the Christmas into New Year period was?

22nd December 2012-8th January CET: 7.9C

17th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.8C

[GRHinPorts]

Can anyone remember how mild the Christmas into New Year period was?

22nd December 2012-8th January CET: 7.9C

17th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.8C

I remember it well! Was wondering at the time if we were even going to have a winter, and scoffing to myself, at longer term predictions on here suggesting this winter would still be colder than average.

That really is a substantial gap between the 2 fortnights - made even more noticeable by the fact that the second period would have maybe 5 or 6 hours more daylight.

[Weather-history]

A similiar summer version of this current spell would be late September-early October 2011.

28th September-3rd October 2011 CET: 19.4C

29th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.9C

Both periods exactly 6 months apart in terms of position in calendar.

It shows how far and how intense winter cold and intense summer heat can extend into the following season modified somewhat by the time of year.

[GRHinPorts]

A similiar summer version of this current spell would be late September-early October 2011.

28th September-3rd October 2011 CET: 19.4C

29th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.9C

Both periods exactly 6 months apart in terms of position in calendar.

It shows how far and how intense winter cold and intense summer heat can extend into the following season modified somewhat by the time of year.

Do you think those figures could ever be reversed around the other way? Im guessing possibly, but would think the preceding summer/winter season might still have an impact in the final temps...i.e if this current pattern happened in late Sept/Oct it would be warmer than 1.9 and similarly had Sept/Oct 2011 happened now it could not quite reach those dizzying heights.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Do you think those figures could ever be reversed around the other way? Im guessing possibly, but would think the preceding summer/winter season might still have an impact in the final temps...i.e if this current pattern happened in late Sept/Oct it would be warmer than 1.9 and similarly had Sept/Oct 2011 happened now it could not quite reach those dizzying heights.

They would never be reversed.

A million and one reasons why, that I do not have the time to go into.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 2.7c to the 4th

[Stu_London]

hop over to the march cet thread and read what mr data says about the history of the cet.

Whilst this might be correct - there is a dataset there and I will continue to use.

[Paul T]

They would never be reversed.

A million and one reasons why, that I do not have the time to go into.

The sea's warmer.

Didnt take long, did it!?

[Radiating Dendrite]

The sea's warmer.

Didnt take long, did it!?

Yes, but also land temps, ground temps, ice cover, snow cover etc.

[hillbilly]

Okay, here you go with some answers. The daily CET record goes back to 1772 and this table will include all cases that are the five lowest starts I found in my data program for 1-7, 1-10 and 1-15 (first half). Since some years appear in all these categories, I have a table showing all qualifiers at all three positions whether they are "bottom five" each time, or not. The years are only in order for the first column as they shift positions after that. Ranks for coldest five are shown.

At the bottom of the table are comparable values for the coldest most recent year, 1986. (1984 had the same figure for 1-7).. Weather-history has a thread over in the historical weather section that tracks the 1837 (coldest April) CET day by day and I posted the actual daily figures there too.

YEAR _________ COLD 1-7 ___ COLD 1-10 ___ COLD 1-15

___________________________________________________

1917 __________ 1.7 (1) ________ 2.1 (1) _________ 2.6 (1)

1839 __________ 2.1 (2) ________ 2.5 (2) _________ 4.0 (5)

1799 __________ 2.3 (3) ________ 3.3 (5) _________ 4.2 (-)

1809 __________ 2.7 (4) ________ 3.9 (-) _________ 4.6 (-)

1922 __________ 2.8 (5) ________ 3.4 (6) _________ 4.9 (-)

1888 __________ 3.0 (-) ________ 3.0 (4) _________ 4.8 (-)

1784 __________ 3.6 (-) ________ 3.8 (-) _________ 3.8 (3)

1816 __________ 3.8 (-) ________ 4.2 (-) _________ 3.9 (4)

1837 __________ 3.4 (-) ________ 2.9 (3) _________ 2.9 (2)

1986 __________ 3.9 (-) ________ 4.1 (-) _________ 4.4 (-)

This table shows that 1917 held first place for cold to mid-month, but 1837 was gaining steadily.

Last year the figures were 6.0, 6.7, 6.6.

The daily figures for 1917 and running CET for tracking are:

date ..CET .. month to date

________________________

01 ... -0.2 ... --0.2

02 ... -0.5 ... --0.3

03 .... 0.5 ... --0.1

04 .... 2.8 ..... 0.7

05 .... 3.2 ..... 1.2

06 .... 2.6 ..... 1.4

07 .... 3.7 ..... 1.7

08 .... 4.2 ..... 2.0

09 .... 3.4 ..... 2.2

10 .... 1.4 ..... 2.1

11 .... 2.5 ..... 2.1

12 .... 3.4 ..... 2.3

13 .... 3.7 ..... 2.4

14 .... 5.0 ..... 2.6

15 .... 4.0 ..... 2.6

just looked on met office for my nearst station at bradford for 1917 info

the extended winter october to may for 1917/1917 holds the most air frosts since 1908 at 93

second place well behind 1978/1979 at 84

third as 1962/1963 at 82

the most since 1979 is 64 in 1985/1986

2009/2010 as 58

will be very interesting where this winter comes am sure it will beat 09/10 maybe 86 as well!

[March Blizzard]

A similiar summer version of this current spell would be late September-early October 2011.

28th September-3rd October 2011 CET: 19.4C

29th March-3rd April 2013 CET: 1.9C

Both periods exactly 6 months apart in terms of position in calendar.

It shows how far and how intense winter cold and intense summer heat can extend into the following season modified somewhat by the time of year.

Also highlights how much latent heat is about in September and how little there is in March. The March/April period has a stronger sun than the September/October period in your example.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Whilst this might be correct - there is a dataset there and I will continue to use.

Stu,

Could you give me the link reference to the daily CET dataset you referred to. I would like to put it in my favoutites.

MIA

[reef]

Hadley is 2.9C to the 5th. Yesterday came in at 3.9C.

We now require 9.6C for the remaining 25 days of the month just to reach the 1981-2010 average and if we had temperatures in that period identical to 2011 then we'd finish on 10.5C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is -1.6C while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so an increase to 3.1C is likely for tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.3C to the 7th (4.7)

3.5C to the 8th (4.9)

3.7C to the 9th (5.4)

4.1C to the 10th (7.0)

4.3C to the 11th (6.3)

4.4C to the 12th (5.8]

4.6C to the 13th (6.5)

[Weather-history]

6th March-5th April 2013 CET: 2.5C

Hard to believe that period has the same CET as February 1996 and January 1997

The only calendar months that were colder in the last 25 years: February 1991, December 1995, January 2010 and December 2010

[Paul T]

Yes, but also land temps, ground temps, ice cover, snow cover etc.

Of course, but its 100% due to the latent heat from the sea around the Northern hemisphere...cause and effect; The warm seas around the Northern Hemisphere cause all of the afformentioned...

Edited April 6, 2013 by Paul T

[Paul T]

Today's minimum is -1.6C while maxima look like reaching above 9C, so an increase to 3.1C is likely for tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

3.3C to the 7th (4.7)

3.5C to the 8th (4.9)

3.7C to the 9th (5.4)

4.1C to the 10th (7.0)

4.3C to the 11th (6.3)

4.4C to the 12th (5.8]

4.6C to the 13th (6.5)

Although I do believe we will go a little cooler with the mins on the 7th and 8th to come in at 3.4oC 'to the 8th'

nitpicking at its finest

Edited April 6, 2013 by Paul T

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.1c to the 6th

[reef]

The mean minimum temperature so far to the 7th is a rather impressive -1.3C at the moment, with all 7 days being sub-zero. A mean min of 3.5C for the remaining 23 days would leave this April in the top 10 coldest mean minima in the CET series for the period 1878-2013.