The Midlands Regional Discussion 21/03/13 09z ------->

[A.J]

ok, please continue your discussions of the impending 'jeez, holy smokes, we're buried under mountains of snow' stuff here....

old thread here ----------->

[Ryan05]

Is Nottingham still in the firing line because some views on here appearing to be contradicting what I heard on both the Radio & TV this morning that said its game on for the Nottingham & the East Midlands being one of the worst areas to be hit ?

[Gustywind]

Very difficult to estimate accumulations from this. Peak district got to be looking at well in excess of a foot in parts, especially further north. As for brum and surrounding areas that's more difficult. I was up near Hexham over weekend and there we had heavy snow for about 6 hours in evening, very marginal temps, still had around 12cms in that time.

Much of this weekends snow is forecast overnight which will help accumulations, expecting less Friday day in particular. So based on all the above I'd expect around 15-20cms for brum and surrounding areas, 20-25cms south and central staffs + Shropshire, 25cms for north staffs. More on locally higher ground. Areas south of brum far less, but still potentially up to 15cms for areas within 20 miles south of brum, lickeys/malverns should do well.

[kmanmx]

Is Nottingham still in the firing line because some views on here appearing to be contradicting what I heard on both the Radio & TV this morning that said its game on for the Nottingham & the East Midlands being one of the worst areas to be hit ?

I'm not so sure about East Mids being "worst hit", looks like areas around the Pennines will be worst hit, northern areas in general.

That said, still the potential for Nottingham areas to see up to 20CM if precipitation charts are to be believed. Midlands generally could be fairly badly hit.

06z GFS impressive with regards to precipitation totals. A bit worried about it's placement of snow, it has many of us (Brum, leics, derby, notts) down for rain with snow up further north.

[Hathers]

When do the Met Office usually update their warnings? Is it usually around late morning?

[Herefordweather]

When do the Met Office usually update their warnings? Is it usually around late morning?

11am - midday.

[Serendipity]

Spare a thought for those of us forecast rain!

[kmanmx]

When do the Met Office usually update their warnings? Is it usually around late morning?

11am - midday.

Yes, I too usually find they update between about 11am and about 1pm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very difficult to estimate accumulations from this. Peak district got to be looking at well in excess of a foot in parts, especially further north. As for brum and surrounding areas that's more difficult. I was up near Hexham over weekend and there we had heavy snow for about 6 hours in evening, very marginal temps, still had around 12cms in that time.

Much of this weekends snow is forecast overnight which will help accumulations, expecting less Friday day in particular. So based on all the above I'd expect around 15-20cms for brum and surrounding areas, 20-25cms south and central staffs + Shropshire, 25cms for north staffs. More on locally higher ground. Areas south of brum far less, but still potentially up to 15cms for areas within 20 miles south of brum, lickeys/malverns should do well.

20-25cms for me? bloody 'eck, bit optimistic? 06Z does suggest decent snow friday night into Sat morning

[Hathers]

11am - midday.

Thought so. Im sure some of us are going to see a Red warning.

[Herefordweather]

Spare a thought for those of us forecast rain!

Agreed. I think some are overlooking this because of snow. My area forecast between 40-70mm of precip. Mainly rain. This could cause some severe flooding.

[Ryan05]

I'm not so sure about East Mids being "worst hit", looks like areas around the Pennines will be worst hit, northern areas in general.

That said, still the potential for Nottingham areas to see up to 20CM if precipitation charts are to be believed. Midlands generally could be fairly badly hit.

06z GFS impressive with regards to precipitation totals. A bit worried about it's placement of snow, it has many of us (Brum, leics, derby, notts) down for rain with snow up further north.

In fairness the guy on Radio Notttingham from the Met said he expected warnings to be issued for my area today. The comment about the East Midlands came from the bloke on the BBC so he probably meant areas of the peak district in derbyshire rather than Notts/Leics.

If we get a covering I will be more that happy when we're this close to April

[Dancerwithwings]

The forecast for most in the midlands will see 36 to 48 hrs of very heavy snow plus blizzards over high ground friday / saturday,

Snow amount will differ depending on elevation and what part of the midlands you live but quite widely most will see 10 to 15 cm.

Then a bitter easterly for three days.

[Hathers]

Ian Ferguson is saying upto 75cm of snow for north Wales. Serious stuff.

[Barbmac]

Wow winter's tail, for sure. Looking forward to some white stuff here, am thinking the Malverns might start off with rain but then get snow later on as that front moves further south. Or that's how it appears on the forecast, who knows!

[Serendipity]

The forecast for most in the midlands will see 36 to 48 hrs of very heavy snow plus blizzards over high ground friday / saturday,

Snow amount will differ depending on elevation and what part of the midlands you live but quite widely most will see 10 to 15 cm.

Then a bitter easterly for three days.

I don't think some of the Midlands will see much - the south midlands look like mainly rain.

[Dancerwithwings]

Maybe at first friday that is, but as friday evening / saturday morning rolls on even parts of the south midlands will see snow.

[Bishop Brennan]

I don't think some of the Midlands will see much - the south midlands look like mainly rain.

Still time for that to change, Serendipity. Only a very slight shift required

Bish

[Gustywind]

20-25cms for me? bloody 'eck, bit optimistic? 06Z does suggest decent snow friday night into Sat morning

Yes that's what I'd expect based on consensus of current output, bit lower for lower lying areas but 25 cms certainly possible for areas higher up. Not dissimilar to accumulations seen on 8th dec 1990, another heavy but very wet snow event. This one set to last nearly twice as long as that event, though snow probably not quite as heavy and stronger solar output and daytime warming now.

[Skyraker]

Still time for that to change, Serendipity. Only a very slight shift required

Bish

Agreed Len.

[Chess01]

Likes like stokes going to get battered . This will be the 2nd time this winter that my area looks good for snow . 18th of jan was great with about 13cm falling but i heard the 25th of jan was good i was in finland. The difference between jan and now is that we have an established cold source now so it should stick around for a few days

[shaky]

Steve murr just posted an image of snowfall accumaltions around the uk on the mod thread!!it showing 10-15cms widely across the midlands and even 20cms in a few places!!that is scary!!best thing is the weather will only get colder once the front retreats back south which means the snow could stick around for quite a while!!thank god its not one of those snow events where its gone next day due to rainfall!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Agreed. I think some are overlooking this because of snow. My area forecast between 40-70mm of precip. Mainly rain. This could cause some severe flooding.

Yep, 50mm quite possible here in Cornwall whilst the North Midlands sees snow. Central Midlands a mix but I would be surprised to see a little more rain involved than expected.

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking at the NAE even the south midlands will see plenty

Just a little food for thought last night on the mod thread Ian Fergusson said

the BBC weather tv graphics are a raw modified version of the NAE.

Also i just carn't believe whats showing above and its coming on to the end of march

hope it comes to frutition.

[Ian Ballinger]

Hopefully we will manage to get at least a light dusting here