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The Midlands Regional Discussion 21/03/13 09z ------->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Hailsowen Newbie

Hailsowen

Posted
  • Location: Halesowen 146m/479ft-ASL
  • Location: Halesowen 146m/479ft-ASL
Posted (edited)

What is this, I don't even ~

13032206_2112.gif

13032212_2112.gif

13032306_2112.gif

13032312_2112.gif

I wonder if the Metty will throw THIS one out. blum.gif

Oh, it's lovely to be near Birmingham sometimes.

Edited by Hailsowen
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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

Nae is a fairly big downgrade. Hopefully its proved wrong

Not really, it's just shifted precipitation accumulations about a bit. That will happen with every run right up to the event. It's pretty much one of the hardest things to get right anyway.

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Gustywind Enthusiast

Gustywind

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
Posted

Nae looks fantastic for Friday night/ Saturday, fine still for Friday also though precipitation is lighter and more sleety for a time Friday pm. Really nothing to complain about.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Nae is a fairly big downgrade. Hopefully its proved wrong

Thats rights for tomorrow afternoon was expecting it to slow down ,

But then as the evening rolls on it kicks in again as the charts show.

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted

Not really, it's just shifted precipitation accumulations about a bit. That will happen with every run right up to the event. It's pretty much one of the hardest things to get right anyway.

hi km, whats it done with the ppn? i cant access chart atm cause on phone and wont beable till to later
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Bishop Brennan Seasoned

Bishop Brennan

Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull - 400ft (122m) ASL
Posted

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

Try this... Real time snow radar....See what you think!!!.

Just click rain or snow on the left.

Just look at all of that juicy PPN heading our way!

It must be very slow moving if it's not supposed to hit these parts until much later tonight.

Bish

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Not really, it's just shifted precipitation accumulations about a bit. That will happen with every run right up to the event. It's pretty much one of the hardest things to get right anyway.

Hopefully a shift eastwards later would be good. Still im pretty much bang in centre of the country so might be ok.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Nae is a fairly big downgrade. Hopefully its proved wrong

It's just a variation on the theme, not much point fretting about model runs at this stage. It's coming. How much will not be known until the front is over us.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Just look at all of that juicy PPN heading our way!

It must be very slow moving if it's not supposed to hit these parts until much later tonight.

Bish

I don't think our sleet/snow shield will stand much chance against that big monstrous area of precipitation (I hope). blum.gif

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

What is this, I don't even ~

13032206_2112.gif

13032212_2112.gif

13032306_2112.gif

13032312_2112.gif

I wonder if the Metty will throw THIS one out. blum.gif

Oh, it's lovely to be near Birmingham sometimes.

Nice charts for here.

Not so good news for my wager that Donny races would be off on Saturday.mega_shok.gif

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

Hopefully a shift eastwards later would be good. Still im pretty much bang in centre of the country so might be ok.

If you analyse NAE, what it's done is shrunk the size of the 0c area in the center of England and enlargened the 1c area. It's changed snow to rain in these area that it's now put up 1c. It seems to think it's very cut and dry. Those areas that remain freezing remain in snow (like ours, right in center of england), those that increase to 1c it's turned it all to rain. It may be coming to that conclusion on more than those variables, but it would seem that is what is the deciding factor.

In my opinion, it seems a little bit unrealistic for it to change to totally rain with just a 1c rise in temperature above 0c. Could happen I suppose.

hi km, whats it done with the ppn? i cant access chart atm cause on phone and wont beable till to later

It's changed the size of the snow area from most of midlands during late Friday afternoon to only very central parts and very north mids being snow. Precipitation amounts over all have varied a little, some places less, some more. Still a lot coming so don't worry.

As for the changes in areas that it thinks will be raining, read above. Thats my take on it. Probably wrong, but never the less blum.gif

Edited by kmanmx
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Just look at all of that juicy PPN heading our way!

It must be very slow moving if it's not supposed to hit these parts until much later tonight.

Bish

And i hope it will all turn into a juicy orange colour on that radar.
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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

Cheers km, i can access the gfs and that has upped ppn for N mids and NW england woo

Hmm, yeah, GFS seems like a bit of an upgrade.

I'm not sure we'll see the amber area change too much. Perhaps enlargened a little. I expect more of a change to the yellow warning.

Edited by kmanmx
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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

Yup fantastic gfs. Heavy snow especially early hours of Saturday.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

UW42-594.GIF?21-16

Still chucking it down saturday morning on the UKMO.

Going to the shed to see if i can find that extra big shovel

i haven't used for many a year!!!!!!!!!!.

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Need a shift further south again really, looking potentially rainy/sleet and marginal here for longer than I'd hope. Not too big on any accumulating snow yet IMBY anyway.

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conor123 Community Regular

conor123

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
Posted (edited)

I'm still struggling to get to excited about tonight/tommorow for here just because I can see it turning to rain, 12z was another downgrading shift northwards with those mild 850's, praying now its wrong and the front ends up much further south.

On the positive side The UKMO has 850hPa's below throughout and we managed heavy snow here February 13th even with uppers around 0.

Edited by conor123
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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

54-777.GIF?21-12

Impressive PPN totals by saturday evening, one word come to mind..... Eerrrrrrrrr BURIED blum.gif

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

I'm still struggling to get excited about tonight/tommorow for here just because I can see it turning to rain and tommorow night's front when it turns back to snow looks a lot weaker this side of the region, 12z was another downgrading shift northwards with those mild 850's, praying now its wrong and the front ends up much further south.

GFS is probably wrong, differs massively from the NAE. Another run or two required but I'm amazed we still don't have consensus about the weather in 24 hours time !

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