Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Robbie Garrett]

That's -8 Incredible to see this really, something is definitely up...

April fools day brings -88 uppers into Northern England / Southern Scotland

[weather_it_will]

April fools day brings -88 uppers into Northern England / Southern Scotland

-88°C uppers eh!..... now that's more like it......none of this -8 rubbish heatwave that we have now..

[Captain Shortwave]

Colder GFS run this time in the mid-range, no surprise tbh.

I think our only hope for milder weather might have to be something extreme.....

[Purga]

Better orientation of the HP to the north on the 18z out to 144hrs

keeps the mild uppers further south so no encroachment into southern areas as with the 12z

Tentative signs of some possible snow approaching from the SW at 156hrs?

Edited March 27, 2013 by Purga

[I remember Atlantic 252]

April fools day brings -88 uppers into Northern England / Southern Scotland

April fool for gavin pmsl, only joking gavin matey, spring will arrive

[Pembroke Dangler]

Coldest uppers starting to leave via the south

Looking at this from a hemispherical point of Vue, gives you a great perspective of what's going on I mean look at the 850 hpa temp over Moscow on April 5th and then look at Barcelona its the same, if that verified then something is up climatically is it not?

[Cloud 10]

No sign of any major change from the latest NAEFS even way out at 360 hrs with below average

temperatures for the UK and Europe.

[johnholmes]

The above is supported out to day 15 or so by ECMWF-GFS and NOAA 500mb anomaly charts. All show no sign so far of any Atlantic dominated upper air pattern at the latitude of the UK.

It really is a fairly unique situation I would think for this time of the year altough someone may be able to show another year(s) when something similar occurred.

Here it has snowed on 12 days, mostly very slight but lying on 5 days when the average for lying snow is 1, the mean temperature is 3.4C when the average is 5.9C, so it does seem a fairly unusual spell for March.

[weather_it_will]

Easterly locked in well and truly beyond the reliable. No way out of here for a long long time.

[Purga]

The above is supported out to day 15 or so by ECMWF-GFS and NOAA 500mb anomaly charts. All show no sign so far of any Atlantic dominated upper air pattern at the latitude of the UK.

It really is a fairly unique situation I would think for this time of the year altough someone may be able to show another year(s) when something similar occurred.

Here it has snowed on 12 days, mostly very slight but lying on 5 days when the average for lying snow is 1, the mean temperature is 3.4C when the average is 5.9C, so it does seem a fairly unusual spell for March.

Your favourite charts are pretty damned solid on no return to any mild or warm for a long time

Unanimous from GFS / ECM mean charts as well

Nuff said.

[SE Blizzards]

I don't think anyone is going to thank me for saying this, but i think the 18Z Ens are colder than the 12Z's

[weatherguy]

Essentially, all the models saying "as you were" for the foreseeable future. Truly is astonishing stuff.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Easterly locked in well and truly beyond the reliable. No way out of here for a long long time.

The intriguing thing for me is that GFS FI repeatedly suggests another surge of cold air pouring into Europe. Will be interesting to see if we can tap into it.

CFS says yes.....850s anomaly for April.....

Edited March 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[Purga]

The intriguing thing for me is that GFS FI repeatedly suggests another surge of cold air pouring into Europe. Will be interesting to see if we can tap into it.

CFS says yes.....850s anomaly for April.....

Another awesome chart CC - it just goes on & on.

[Panayiotis]

I love extreme weather but how long can this go on for!?

The cold literally stay with us until the 13th of April with -4C uppers being the warmest! On this run the cold would have lasted us 456hrs (19days)!

After all that we then enter a period of sunny and dry weather for 11 days:

You would think the cold would be over with us? think again!

That CFS run is extreme! -8C right down the spine of the country on the 7th of May! Mad! I dont know what economical and social effects that run would have on the Uk if it occured!

Edited March 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Iceni]

I love extreme weather but how long can this go on for!?

The cold literally stay with us until the 13th of April with -4C uppers being the warmest! On this run the cold would have lasted us 456hrs (19days)!

After all that we then enter a period of sunny and dry weather for 11 days:

You would think the cold would be over with us? think again!

That CFS run is extreme! -8C right down the spine of the country on the 7th of May! Mad! I dont know what economical and social effects that run would have on the Uk if it occured!

Don't forget the County Council elections are on the 2nd May. Could have a bad effect on the 'greenest government ever' and any other candidate which still believes in that tosh.

Even our neighbour a farmer is talking Little Ice Age. He's lost his wheat crop for one reason or another for the past three years.

[Ian Brown]

Good agreement this morning from the ECM and GFS with regard to the continuation of easterlies as we look towards the end of next week.

[That ECM]

Good agreement this morning from the ECM and GFS with regard to the continuation of easterlies as we look towards the end of next week.

And beyond. At the bottom of you post it talks about having enough and can you stop zonality. The easterly zonality??!!!!

[Paul]

This thread is now closed - a fresh model thread can be found here