Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Carlrg]

No let up in the 850's on the BOM right through to 240+ Hours.

http://www.meteociel...ode=1&archive=0

The Beasterly reloads at T156+ Hours. That Icelandic/ Scandi High is going to take some shifting.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Nothing warm showing up in the 2m temps AT ALL.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=8&carte=0

The only saving grace is that the precips look fairly light, with the system on the 29th March staying south of the country in the Channel. Only the South of Ireland and the West country get rain on the 31st which then gets pushed back once again on the 1st. The South West just don't need it!

http://www.meteociel...ode=2&archive=0

There is no quick end in sight for the current spell of weather we find ourselves in.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Carlrg

[Panayiotis]

No let up in the 850's on the BOM right through to 240+ Hours.

http://www.meteociel...ode=1&archive=0

The Beasterly reloads at T156+ Hours.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Nothing warm showing up in the 2m temps AT ALL.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=8&carte=0

The only saving grace is that the precips look fairly light, with the system on the 29th March staying south of the country in the Channel.

http://www.meteociel...ode=2&archive=0

There is no quick end in sight for the current spell of weather we find ourselves in.

You have posted the 00z, the 12z is updating now!

[SMU]

No comment on the UKMO

RARE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013032512/UW144-21.GIF?25-18

520 Thickness squeezing into the SE-

For what is essentially the 1st of April!!

S

[SE Blizzards]

As RP posted a 16 day chart, i thought i would post one too....

mind boggling control run chart for 10th April...

[AWD]

Clear split in the GEFS tonight, around the 27th/28th;

Either way, that is a very cold set of ensembles for the start of April. The mean doesn't get above 0c tight through to mid April. To my eyes, very slightly more members go for the colder route unfortunetly. No mild in sight whatever way you look at those.

Edited March 25, 2013 by AWD

[Scorcher]

Clear split in the GEFS tonight, around the 27th/28th;

Either way, that is a very cold set of ensembles for the start of April. The mean doesn't get above 0c tight through to mid April. To my eyes, very slightly more members go for the colder route unfortunetly. No mild in sight whatever way you look at those.

Temps could easily be average with 0C uppers in April though, things can still change very quickly.

[AWD]

Temps could easily be average with 0C uppers in April though, things can still change very quickly.

Yeah, it would feel pleasent enough if one of the milder members came off, providing the sun played its part of course, but looking at the 2m temps;

you have to say they are disappointing for the start of April. Little support for double figure temps in the reliable timeframe there, which I would expect in London this time of year on a good number of days.

Edited March 25, 2013 by AWD

[bluearmy]

No comment on the UKMO

RARE.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?25-18

520 Thickness squeezing into the SE-

For what is essentially the 1st of April!!

S

There were some comments steve but i think fatigue has finally set in after what is essentially 4 months of hard graft following the nwp. i think only those charts which clearly show a potential snow event of some significance are going to elicit any excitement now. that ukmo day sixer which would have generated a few pages of comment only 5 weeks ago is now seen as just another standard chart at the moment. incredible.

[Summer Sun]

12z full ensembles show a clear split from the 29th

The Manchester ensemble has gone colder since this morning

And the Aberdeen ensemble remains cold as it has done for a while now

what they all do agree on is low precipitation for the next 2 weeks so disruptive snow fall looks out the question at this stage thankfully any snow which does fall will be only light and patchy now

By this time next week we could well be colder than Poland!

[rory o gorman]

yep its mild sunny weather we want ,and for me active convection so i can start chasing again .

The latest dublin gfs ENS shows a slow but steady rise in uppers from friday on .slowly does it now

[shaky]

No comment on the UKMO

RARE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013032512/UW144-21.GIF?25-18

520 Thickness squeezing into the SE-

For what is essentially the 1st of April!!

S

Its just beautifull!!it brings a tear to my eye😥!!am sure there would be plenty of snow showers coming in from the east!!

[SE Blizzards]

Absolute bitter 12Z run from the BOM...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=1&carte=0

[Panayiotis]

Absolute bitter 12Z run from the BOM...

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

Its quite snowy for the far SW too, hopefully the fronts can push further north....

102hrs:

156hrs:

Edited March 25, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T120

Edited March 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Carlrg]

Wow that looks like a colder run than the 0z.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Does anyone in the know see a glimmer deep into FI at T240?

Edited March 25, 2013 by Carlrg

[Vince Coombes]

No comment on the UKMO

RARE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013032512/UW144-21.GIF?25-18

520 Thickness squeezing into the SE-

For what is essentially the 1st of April!!

S

Superb chart Steve but no good if it dont produce the convective goodies. Like this current spell for us in the SE. Would like heavy snow now which would settle no problem....

[-uksnow-]

Please someone correct me if im wrong, but doesnt the 12z ECM introduce the ppn quite far in

Taking its view at 96hrs the position of the low

and comparing it too the March 11th snow event that put 5-10cm across parts of the south (6cm IMBY)

I appreciate that low was 6mb deeper, but the one projected for later this week is slightly further north?

[Summer Sun]

Not as cold tonight from ECM we are going in the right direction at last!!!

12z left 00z right

By t144 the cold is shifted further east!!

A good run so far

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[Panayiotis]

Has the ECM picked upon something or is it going off on a tangent?

Compared to the rest:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not as cold tonight from ECM we are going in the right direction at last!!!

12z left 00z right

By t144 the cold is shifted further east!!

A good run so far

What is so good about it? you are a rain fan, but many are not, majority want warm weather now but not Dec weather 6C and rain, should want 20C and sun

[The Northern Ramper]

Not as cold tonight from ECM we are going in the right direction at last!!!

12z left 00z right

By t144 the cold is shifted further east!!

A good run so far

Yeah at that rate I'll be able to hang my jacket away by June.

[Summer Sun]

Certainly less cold from ECM tonight especially from the midlands south

Easter Monday

Edited March 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[Panayiotis]

And as soon as Gavin posts the low decides to slide towards the Channel this may follow another bitter easterly,sorry Gavin.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Panayiotis

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Here we have sub -10 850s across almost the entire British Isles, and British Summer Time starts at the weekend!

And a blob of sub 5C SSTs east off Scotland!

Edited March 25, 2013 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't know what ECM gavin is looking at but winds look to remain SE/E'ly. 850's aren't the be all and end all. All the ECM run does is introduce more moisture/cloud which will make it FEEL colder than if the sun was out.